97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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3011. pottery
Quoting SLU:
Like I said earlier tonight after 98L was declared, it has limited time to strenghen and the BAM models agree since they run it aground in about 24 hours.




Post 2989.
That is ONE SCARY IMAGE......
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3010. aquak9
hi spathy- hug hug- yes some boring rain would be nice, rain and wind would be even sweeter. At 35mph I get kinda antsy. Then you've got the whole beer/wind speed graph deal.

Wonder if ya'll will get any rain down there.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Seems to be getting that "curved band" look back that it had yesterday.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5311
3007. angiest
Quoting Chicklit:

It's forecasted to stay well south of you and go west into Mexico as a tropical storm.


Actually I don't think there is an official forecast of anything yet.
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3006. Patrap
Spring 2010 Updated GOES Eclipse Schedules
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Fay did eventually reach that 5 day point---but from a different direction!


Like that little kid on the comic strip - Family Circle. Remember how he would do curly cues - up, down and all around before he got where he was going. lol
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Yea, I forgot that they don't normally update during the night time, it isn't automatic, but is entered manually.

If you go to the WUndermap
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

you will find several PWS here and on Pine Cay
thanks
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Quoting floridaT:
wish mbpv would update there onservation


Yea, I forgot that they don't normally update during the night time, it isn't automatic, but is entered manually.

If you go to the WUndermap
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

you will find several PWS here and on Pine Cay
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Quoting Patrap:


Were in GOES-12 Blackout for a tad Longer..

Eclipse Period
please explain
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3001. angiest
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That storm is what set Stormtop apart from all other trolls. Katrina is probably the only reason why anyone still remembers Stormtop up to this day.


Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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Compare current Nasa to Noaa of two hours ago. What a difference a day makes(or a couple hours).
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2997. Patrap
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


So we've all been analyzing the same loops for the past, umm, almost 3 hours. That's funny, I need a drink, lol.



Other channels are still in use..


But ya gotta have da keys
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
2996. xcool




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From post #2914. zoomiami

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

Right around this time we were trying to get out of our office. It was a MESS.

But this was Advisory 4A, which means that 24 hours earlier they were just issuing #1. That explains a lot about how unprepared we were. Like I said, we expected stormy weather in the form of a Twave, but not much more than that.

I have said before and will continue to say that all other things aside, 2005 taught NHC and a lot of the others of us a few lessons about hurricanes and hurricane preps.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
2993. Patrap
98L NASA Viewer
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting texwarhawk:
can anybody try and tell in words how 98L looks im in a car on a cell phone back from galveston/surfside beach and and there were good 5-10 foot waves out there plus a pretty hefty south east wind the water was up the beach 50yrds further up then it shoulda been- really cool to be in

It's forecasted to stay well south of you and go west into Mexico as a tropical storm.
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Quoting extreme236:
But before I go, these are a good judge of organizational trends for 97L

21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
That's weird, on the ATCF site it says that SAB is giving 97L a T2.0.
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2989. SLU
Like I said earlier tonight after 98L was declared, it has limited time to strenghen and the BAM models agree since they run it aground in about 24 hours.



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Am monitoring ships in the area since my hubby's ship is heading into the storm area of 97L tonight on their way to PR.

A cruise ship near the center of 97L reported 30 knot winds from 090 and 15 foot waves a couple of hours ago, and a cargo ship just northeast of 97L reported 32 knot winds from 060 and 10 foot waves.

Am hoping 97L does not intensify until my husband's ship is past it. His ship was under TS Andrea a few years ago as it formed right over them off the VA coast, and they had a lot of damage and injuries.

Please keep the ships and people on them in your prayers for safety...
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Quoting Patrap:


Were in GOES-12 Blackout for a tad Longer..

Eclipse Period


So we've all been analyzing the same loops for the past, umm, almost 3 hours. That's funny, I need a drink, lol.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
2985. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2983. gator23
Is there a chance 97L could develop and hit (insert your present location)

Seriously though. People were upset that WSVN had not gone into Hurricane mode 2 days ago.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
things can happen
If that happens, this blog will definitely need to be put "under sedation" lol
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Quoting maryweather84:
hope all is well with everyone! can someone please explain to me why the models are showing tex/la now? i figured if i couldnt get answers anywhere else i could get them here...thanks in advance for any answers!


maybe cuz I was hoping for a generator driven bbq this weekend... just kidding.. Im going to practice anyway... ha!!
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2979. angiest
2891 -
Quoting AlexEmmett:

its hotter


WU shows ~90F water all over the northern and NW Gulf.
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2978. Patrap
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Just noticed the latest floater is 00:15Z, sheesh it's 2:27Z.


Were in GOES-12 Blackout for a tad Longer..

Eclipse Period
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Could you find the warning cone for Fay?

Fay is probably my most interesting storm watching wise -- it was making me nervous, so at 4 am I was sitting at my computer watching it. I think Storm Junky was on also. We were watching the radar, etc, and after about an hour and a half, realize that its doing something strange. Instead of skirting along the bottome of Cuba it has started moving half way across.

The problem with this was that the keys and South Florida were going to wake up to a storm coming toward them instead of heading away. Think warnings, school buses, etc.

By about 5:45 it was obvious that's where it was going. All the weather people were still reading the canned stuff on TV, and here we were watching it go a completely different direction.

Another blogger came on and blasted us -- I mean really blasted us - for talking about things we didn't know about, and how we were going to scare an entire population, it was criminal what we were saying etc. I was speechless. Then our weather guy on channel 7 looked at his canned stuff, brought out the radar, and said exactly what we had been saying for the last hour. He was the first one in the media to pick it up.

Gave him a lot of credit, because that report was his, from his observations, not just the canned stuff.
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hope all is well with everyone! can someone please explain to me why the models are showing tex/la now? i figured if i couldnt get answers anywhere else i could get them here...thanks in advance for any answers!
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Quoting extreme236:
97L is still disorganized, but it does look the best it has looked all day. Will check back in the morning and see what we're looking.

That sounds like a very sensible idea, EX236.
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Just noticed the latest floater is 00:15Z, sheesh it's 2:27Z.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
South Florida should begin to see scattered thunderstorms and some gusty winds starting late Thursday night into all day Friday as 97L begins to near.
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I hear ya SSI. 97L has looked bad to me for days and then I stepped in it this morning and thought by DMAX tonight it would begin to organize.

Resembles a shrimp at present.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep I see what you mean.


Apparently he's judging by an image instead of looking at the maps.. CIMMS shear map clearly shows the anticyclone forming south of 97L, also wind shear over the invest is 10-20 knots. Marginally favorable, not unfavorable.

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7360
Wow! Both systems are now much better organized on NASA satellites that are updated. With a 40% chance, you're getting the odds flipflopping now. It's been in th 40-70% range for awhile now. The longer it stays that way the more the law of averages come into play. In other words, with the weather, it is not like flipping a coin and expecting the same outcome. There are fluctuations in the upper air that change and cause new devlopment with a few factors that enhance that development. The 30% area is also much better organized!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I have to admit that stormtop did call for WSW motion for Katrina, however. He was eerily right about that storm.

That storm is what set Stormtop apart from all other trolls. Katrina is probably the only reason why anyone still remembers Stormtop up to this day.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
But before I go, these are a good judge of organizational trends for 97L

21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
can anybody try and tell in words how 98L looks im in a car on a cell phone back from galveston/surfside beach and and there were good 5-10 foot waves out there plus a pretty hefty south east wind the water was up the beach 50yrds further up then it shoulda been- really cool to be in
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97L is still disorganized, but it does look the best it has looked all day. Will check back in the morning and see what we're looking.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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