97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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3062. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
3060. SLU
Quoting cirrocumulus:
SLU: You have an old image from about two and a half hours ago. Go to NASA. I posted the convetive explosions going on over the Bay of Campeche a second ago.


Yeh i've seen it but the convection is not that organised as yet. There's still a lot of work to be done. Let'see how it goes by DMAX.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Vis images of 97L would be great right now.
As good as it gets during night time...

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3057. angiest
Umm, see CMC after 100 hours... something weird going on in the Gulf.
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3054. Drakoen
ASCAT pass just misses 97L's low pressure center:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30493
3053. Patrap
Caribbean Sea Offshore Waters Forecast


.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF HAITI
N TO 27N71W IS MOVING W 13 KT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE SE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
THU NIGHT AND TO S FLORIDA ON FRI.


A LOW IS FORECAST ON THE
TROUGH NEAR 21N74W 1011 MB OVERNIGHT. THE LOW MAY POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT NEARS 22N74W 1010 MB THU
MORNING...AND TO THE VICINITY OF S FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING.


A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 31N THROUGH MON MAINTAINING A RATHER
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
AMZ080-220930-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
1130 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.TONIGHT...N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S
OF 28N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT S OF 25N BETWEEN 68W
AND 73W NE 25 TO 30 KT...AND E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT E OF 68W. SEAS
5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT S OF 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W 8 TO 13 FT.
NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 28N E OF 74W
AND S OF 27N W OF 74W.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5
TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL. S OF 28N E OF 75W SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
...EXCEPT N OF 23N W OF 72W 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN SE
SWELL...EXCEPT N OF 23N W OF 72W 9 TO 14 FT. S OF 28N W OF 75W N
TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W
AND 78W NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT FROM 25N
TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS AN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting Baybuddy:


Good Question, I guess either StormW or Dr.Masters. But what of Snape?


That's a loaded question!
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Infrared imagery of 97L looks like shrimp.

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Quoting reedzone:


Apparently he's judging by an image instead of looking at the maps.. CIMMS shear map clearly shows the anticyclone forming south of 97L, also wind shear over the invest is 10-20 knots. Marginally favorable, not unfavorable.



I wasn't just looking at satellite imagery, but the HDW-H wind vectors in the animation (shows the upper-level winds derived by satellite). I see lots of westerly and southelry 200 mb wind barbs of magnitude 20 kts over the area between the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, where it seems the elongated circulation of 97L is stretched across.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 478 Comments: 3671
3048. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:
I better at least get some waterspout photos out of this thing... probably not unless I go to da keys.


STOP IT!!!! FIX THAT AVATAR RIGHT NOW!!!!
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Often the maritime interest are forgotten with respect to tropical weather. Every time I read "fish storm," I think the writer must not have ever worked on the water or know someone who does. I know it's just catchy, and no-one really means any harm. Thanks for reminding everyone.


Thanks for the reply Lightning Charmer (Nice avatar too!) Doesn't look like I will get much sleep tonight plotting the ship's progress and that of the storm. Even though hubby says he's been in a lot worse typhoons and hurricanes over the years he has been a mariner, I still worry...
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Quoting Patrap:



Other channels are still in use..


But ya gotta have da keys


Left the keys at the office :-(
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3044. pottery
Quoting cirrocumulus:


Holy bat cave, pottery! A double barreled moisture train coming into the U.S.

LOL, but I dont think that 98L is a worry for the US. Heavy rains and floods for Northern Central America is more likely.
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3043. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
SLU: You have an old image from about two and a half hours ago. Go to NASA. I posted the convetive explosions going on over the Bay of Campeche a second ago.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Who is Dumbledore, I wonder?


Good Question, I guess either StormW or Dr.Masters. But what of Snape?
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3038. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:
SAB

2110N, 7290W

DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO PT PA=30 NMI


would that mean97l is a td with those numbers drake ? tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
3037. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Post 2989.
That is ONE SCARY IMAGE......


lol .. it looks a real mess
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Models moving further south; interesting Patrap.
goodnight everyone.
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Quoting pvbeachbum:
Am monitoring ships in the area since my hubby's ship is heading into the storm area of 97L tonight on their way to PR.

A cruise ship near the center of 97L reported 30 knot winds from 090 and 15 foot waves a couple of hours ago, and a cargo ship just northeast of 97L reported 32 knot winds from 060 and 10 foot waves.

Am hoping 97L does not intensify until my husband's ship is past it. His ship was under TS Andrea a few years ago as it formed right over them off the VA coast, and they had a lot of damage and injuries.

Please keep the ships and people on them in your prayers for safety...
Often the maritime interest are forgotten with respect to tropical weather. Every time I read "fish storm," I think the writer must not have ever worked on the water or know someone who does. I know it's just catchy, and no-one really means any harm. Thanks for reminding everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
SAB

2110N, 7290W

DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO PT PA=30 NMI
Yep, TAFB at 1.5.
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Holy bat cave, pottery! A double barreled moisture train coming into the U.S.
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3030. Patrap
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 21 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF CUBA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 22/1430Z
D. 23.0N 76.0W
E. 22/1700Z TO 21/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03BBA SURV
C. 22/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 23/1500Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 24/0000Z

3. NOTE: THE AF MISSIONS TASKED FOR 21/1800Z, 22/06-1200Z
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 21/1130Z. THE GIV MISSION TASKED FOR
21/1730Z WILL FLY.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
3029. Drakoen
SAB

2110N, 7290W

DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO PT PA=30 NMI
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30493
3028. 2ifbyC
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
South Florida should begin to see scattered thunderstorms and some gusty winds starting late Thursday night into all day Friday as 97L begins to near.


Lovely, three of us are trailering from south Tampa Bay down to Big Pine Key with two boats early Friday. At least the boats will get a good rinse down...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. If it can persist overnight into the morning Recon might investigate.


Unless it completely falls apart, I think they should.

However, seeing this system has not developed over the past few days, a track through the straits of Florida is looking more likely, which is not good news.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
3024. SLU
Unless if there's a drastic increase in it's structure overnight I don't see 98L becoming a tropical cyclone. The folks in NE Mexico need a break anyway. It's already been a terrifying season for them if not for anyone else.


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3023. leo305
Quoting Jeff9641:
Is 97L forming a new center from the 8pm cordinates to the NE?


what makes you say that?
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting angiest:


Actually I don't think there is an official forecast of anything yet.

Does this work for you?
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Thanks Destin -- you are much better with images than I am.
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Quoting angiest:


Even a broken clock is right twice a day.


St***top is like Voldemort, Never say his name!
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thanks harley and jeff!
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3017. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344


Holy smokes!
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Quoting AllStar17:


Seems to be getting that "curved band" look back that it had yesterday.
Yup. If it can persist overnight into the morning Recon might investigate.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.