97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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3112. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
Doubt-caster..

:)
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3111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting pottery:

52 knots ????
Doubt that !
Exactly why I said that I don't know how accurate both of the observations are.
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Good evening all, 97L is looking more organized now. Seems to have disengaged from the ULL to the NW. Also, there appears to be some wrap around moisture insulating it from the dry air to the W. Anybody else seeing what I see?
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Quoting blsealevel:


Was that ULL to the NW of 97L forcasted to disipate like it looks like its doing or was it supposed to move out west in front of 97L?


It was forecast to dissipate but, ended up being stronger than it had ever been today.
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3106. Patrap
Doubt-caster..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Floater on 98L. Satellite imagery from the SSD is now updating again.
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Quoting pottery:

What's the wind direction ?


ENE now
This afternoon it backed to NE for a while
My Highest Gust here at the house was about 2:30 pm at 43 mph
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A SHIP observation near 21.5˚N and 72.5˚W is reporting a pressure of 29.85in. The same ship is also reporting a wind speed of 52.4 knots so I don't know how accurate the observation is.
That's a buoy obs I believe.
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3102. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A SHIP observation near 21.5˚N and 72.5˚W is reporting a pressure of 29.85in. The same ship is also reporting a wind speed of 52.4 knots so I don't know how accurate the observation is.

52 knots ????
Doubt that !
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caicosretired ya dont have a barometer handy do ya?
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3100. Bonz
When does blackout/eclipse end? The link someone posted didn't work past the first page.
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3099. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting SLU:
Unless if there's a drastic increase in it's structure overnight I don't see 98L becoming a tropical cyclone. The folks in NE Mexico need a break anyway. It's already been a terrifying season for them if not for anyone else.




terrifying we ain't seen nothing yet
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Was that ULL to the NW of 97L forcasted to disipate like it looks like its doing or was it supposed to move out west in front of 97L?
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3097. angiest
CMC at 108 hours. One circle is present 97L heading to SE Texas. One circle is a new system the CMC spins up at this time.

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A ship observation near 21.5N and 72.5W is reporting a pressure of 29.85in. The same ship is also reporting a wind speed of 52.4 knots so I don't know how accurate the observations are.
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3095. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


no not actually...
Here on Providenciales we have wind 15 - 20 mph
with steady rain
But definitely NOT being POUNDED


What's the wind direction ?
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3094. xcool
Drak MAIL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Drakoen:
ASCAT pass just misses 97L's low pressure center:

Again :o(

And no new quikscat before 2018...
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The 02:40 image of 98L increasing in areal coverage and intensity over the warm Bay of Campeche!

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3082. floridaT 2:52 AM GMT on July 22, 2010
Quoting NoNamePub:
3063. CaicosRetiredSailor

Was about to say - Ouch - Turks and Caicos getting a bit of a blow....I'd make some Conch Salad and break out some rum - or Kalik!
conk salad. that made my mouth water

I LOVE that stuff.....
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Provo is the triangle shape in the white.
It is not as bad here as one might think by seeing that.
Caicos....you could be in the "eye" of the storm. Watch out for the other side and moreso the tail. Be safe. All of us.
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3089. 2ifbyC
Quoting spathy:

Ouch!
Go slow or just dont go!


Slow it will probably be... If need be, we can always duck into H(.)(.)ters at Doral... 8-)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'll go with Masters being Dumbledore :)

As for Snape, I have no comment ;)


That is probably best.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

THAT ISLAND IN THE WHITE IS GETTING POUNDED RIGHT NOW,


no not actually...
Here on Providenciales we have wind 15 - 20 mph
with steady rain
But definitely NOT being POUNDED

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Drak, you've been awfully quiet. What do you think about 97l?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Provo is the triangle shape in the white.
It is not as bad here as one might think by seeing that.


I am glad to hear that it is not as bad as it looks Caicos - stay safe!
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3083. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting NoNamePub:
3063. CaicosRetiredSailor

Was about to say - Ouch - Turks and Caicos getting a bit of a blow....I'd make some Conch Salad and break out some rum - or Kalik!
conk salad. that made my mouth water
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Quoting zoomiami:


That's a loaded question!


LOL!
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SLU: True, but now I'm thinking of the dangers of flooding. Parts of West Texas had almost half a year rain or more with Alex.
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3078. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3063. CaicosRetiredSailor

Was about to say - Ouch - Turks and Caicos getting a bit of a blow....I'd make some Conch Salad and break out some rum - or Kalik!
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Lurker here, but to some of the comments above about models shifting east or west, everyone has to remember that until 97L becomes a depression or storm, there will be swings in the models left and right. All of us need to be prepared especially us located in the spill region.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Infrared imagery of 97L looks like shrimp.



i literally laughed out loud... i can see it!
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Just updated

W to WSW motion,
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That Fay. I didn't trust those forecasts and kept expecting some "sudden" right turn back over the Bahamas, with a sudden intensification over the GS to boot... lol it was paranoia, but still...

That whole 2008 season had some weird paths due to high location. Ike was forecast 5 days out to drill a hole right up the centre of the Bahamas from SE to NW [and we knew it could happen - had a couple historical ones like that] and then suddenly the models all swung S over Cuba. Everybody was like "huhhh??????". But that is what happened. Hanna, doing that "dip and meander" over Haiti? Some strange tracks, starting with that very fey Fay...
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3071. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3069. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Provo is the triangle shape in the white.
It is not as bad here as one might think by seeing that.

Keep Safe there...
Dont try to jump over any gullies........
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wow the 02:15 sat convection building
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3067. Drakoen
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3065. Patrap
GOM IR Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
pottery: You were exactly right about that image being scary. Did you see the rainfall estimate over Texas. They are not really ready for more floods after Alex. There may be a lot of rain from that system 98L if it gets much more organized. Even tropical storms can be extremely hazardous. Turn around, don't drown as Noaa advises!
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Provo is the triangle shape in the white.
It is not as bad here as one might think by seeing that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3062. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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