97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Water vapor loops suggest that the ULL causing shear to 97L is moving fairly quickly to the west. Continued organization of 97L should continue as shear continues to drop. The next problem for 97L is dry air, which doesn't seem to be a major problem at the moment.
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3161. xcool
GAME ON NOW..IMOIMO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Is that for real, from Midland?

Hysterical!
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3159. 7544
open the door now for 97l

ull out of the way

dryair fading

wind shear down as xcool posted

just like the cmc shows this get stronger around the bahamma all along

get ready for dmax we might all be scratching our heads

only 2 days away from so fla

local mets not concerned with it

boy will those be surpised
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Quoting Patrap:


Its a upload and it will be gone as soon as one checks the System Physically.



Good.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
evening night shift
Finally. Better late than never. I hope you remembered to get the donuts.
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3155. Grothar
Are the satellite images not updating. They all seem to be stuck.
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Quoting Patrap:
The ULL and the Invest are getting a lil separtion and its taking advantage pretty fast Drak seems.

That's exactly what I see. Look at the 6 hour water vapor loop. The atmosphere(along with the ULL) ahead of 97L has moved 4 degrees while 97L has moved 1 degree. That's how it looks to me anyway. Not sure what it means but at the moment our Bonnie-to-be seems to be liking it.
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3153. Patrap
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WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by our employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans. As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting angiest:


Well, Frank Billingsly on Ch 2 in Houston has already written off 98L. But is keeping up interest in 97L for us.

Granted, the models for 97L would bring us moisture from the system even if it is a LA storm.
98L should go into mexico so it shouldnt be a problem for you guys 97L is the wild card right now who knows what its going to do
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evening night shift
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
3150. angiest
Quoting hcubed:
Had problems with other storms - Dean in particular.


He had a monster Gustav hit NOLA. Granted, it was not an entirely unreasonable forecast, but it certainly looked more like doomcasting for NOLA and not a "serious" forecast.
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3149. deepee
What do ya'll think about 98L?

Also... let me say hi for the first time. *goes back to lurking*
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3148. JLPR2
Shear is pretty bad for 97L at the moment with the highest shear of the ULL almost on top of it, however the anticlone over Haiti is lending a hand.
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3147. Patrap
Quoting futuremet:


I can't believe the admin would allow such derogatory picture.


Its a upload and it will be gone as soon as one checks the System Physically.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Y'all forgot the "disaster caster" in your list of "caster" types.
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This is from Midland Texas on the ULL! LOL...LOL! It's true, but funny because it is so far away: Midland, Texas, Noaa: BY SATURDAY A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND POSITION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRESENT. WE HAVE
STAYED NEAR OR UNDER THE COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON...NOT TOO MENTION ITS WARM BIAS AS OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
POSSIBLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT GREEN VEGETATION PRESENT.
.
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3144. angiest
Quoting FLdewey:
It's not even stirring the local mets... which isn't a good sign.


Well, Frank Billingsly on Ch 2 in Houston has already written off 98L. But is keeping up interest in 97L for us.

Granted, the models for 97L would bring us moisture from the system even if it is a LA storm.
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3143. hcubed
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Stormtop stopped posting after Katrina, at least as far as I remember. I can't remember him ever posting about Wilma, and wondered what he would have made of her.
Had problems with other storms - Dean in particular.
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Quoting FLdewey:
It's not even stirring the local mets... which isn't a good sign.
they are robotic sheep. they wouldnt dare give an opinion other than what the nws or nhc says
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3141. Patrap
A Improved Dvorak with 3 Colored ring,,Ovaled..but there.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting aquak9:
FlDewey you're a sick pup.


I can't believe the admin would allow such derogatory picture.
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3139. xcool
WIND SHEAR NOW DIE OFF.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3138. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


terrifying we ain't seen nothing yet


Let's hope that's all we will see!
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Good evening guys i see both 97 and 98L organizing this evening but 97L still has a lot going against it 98L has mexico staring right at it so lets wait and see
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3136. Patrap
The ULL and the Invest are getting a lil separtion and its taking advantage pretty fast Drak seems.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
3135. hcubed
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That storm is what set Stormtop apart from all other trolls. Katrina is probably the only reason why anyone still remembers Stormtop up to this day.


Yeah. Isn't there some expression about a blind nut and a squirrel...
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Quoting leo305:


there's a spin north of puerto rico?


Someone posted an NWS discussion today saying that a closed low could develop there and that the models were really handling the ULL situation poorly.
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3133. Drakoen
A little better organized:

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Quoting blsealevel:


Was that ULL to the NW of 97L forcasted to disipate like it looks like its doing or was it supposed to move out west in front of 97L?

From what I'm seeing on that Vapor Loop, I think it is disipating..... Now that is strange for sure.
Because I thought it would follow 97L with the
same path....
mmmmmmm

Taco :o)
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3131. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting aquak9:


no, he's right, cosmic. Look at the link, you can see that was the 0100 GMT reading, and then there's another one for 0300 GMT above it, the ship is moving.

i don't trust pressures on ships readings but I'm ok with wave height.
Yes, I double checked and you're right. It is a ship for sure. And it might be an accurate obs. The wind direction seems right given the location. Could be in the worst part of a strengthening invest. A squall line.
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God luck on the photos Baha

btw
I would NOT consider a wind speed report in this area of
52.4 knots

as reliable.
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3127. aquak9
FlDewey you're a sick pup.
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3126. SLU
Quoting cirrocumulus:
SLU: True, but now I'm thinking of the dangers of flooding. Parts of West Texas had almost half a year rain or more with Alex.


Yeah .. man .. it's always bad to see the same places get hit multiple times in the same season.
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Quoting pottery:

But CRS said he had a gust of 43 MPH.
So maybe....
Interesting.
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Good night Pottery, and all others. We'll all see what morning brings for 97 and 98.
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3123. leo305
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
32kts is highest on this map




there's a spin north of puerto rico?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, CRS, glad to hear the rain is not to bad. Hope the power stays on LOL.

Zoo, miamivu, others, everybody, have a great night. I'm determined to make it up to the Eastern point by about 6:15 tomorrow a.m. to get some photos of whatever sunrise we do have [should be a good one]. I'll likely check in around 5 a.m. before I head out.

So, Good night to all!


night Baha im off too
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Pressure on 97L dropped 3mb it was 1012mb now its 1009mb. This was over a 3 hour period.


Information About Disturbance (Invest 97L)

Storm information valid as of: Thursday, July 22, 2010 0:00 Z
Coordinates: 21.4N 72.8W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 107 miles (172 km) to the W (268°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR)
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)
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3120. pottery
Sleep Cozy, Baha.

I am out too...............
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32kts is highest on this map


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Well, CRS, glad to hear the rain is not to bad. Hope the power stays on LOL.

Zoo, miamivu, others, everybody, have a great night. I'm determined to make it up to the Eastern point by about 6:15 tomorrow a.m. to get some photos of whatever sunrise we do have [should be a good one]. I'll likely check in around 5 a.m. before I head out.

So, Good night to all!
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3117. aquak9
Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's a buoy obs I believe.


no, he's right, cosmic. Look at the link, you can see that was the 0100 GMT reading, and then there's another one for 0300 GMT above it, the ship is moving.

i don't trust pressures on ships readings but I'm ok with wave height.
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3116. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Exactly why I said that I don't know how accurate both of the observations are.

But CRS said he had a gust of 43 MPH.
So maybe....
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3115. Patrap
GOES-East 4 km IR4 Floater 2
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
3113. 7544
97l looks to be getting its together now and should get better at dmax get your popcorn ready
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3112. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
Doubt-caster..

:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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