97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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3212. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Orcasystems:


Doggy Du. almost every Deep Sea Vessel has one.
A whuuuuuut? Google not helpful with that one...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Water vapor loops suggest that the ULL causing shear to 97L is moving fairly quickly to the west. Continued organization of 97L should continue as shear continues to drop. The next problem for 97L is dry air, which doesn't seem to be a major problem at the moment.


If it doesn't slow down it has a shot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
should be a real interesting night...almost makes me want to get the coffee out and go for less sleep tomorrow.....almost. About to get a little intriguing, but we have said that before with 97L. Seems like every time we are uncertain about its development, it makes a new stand against the forces working to destroy it.

Lol, but this time the one of the main force's is fading away...
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3208. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I can't get the cimss either or the Navy site. None has updated since 10. Can you check the cimss and see if you can get it?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
should be a real interesting night...almost makes me want to get the coffee out and go for less sleep tomorrow.....almost. About to get a little intriguing, but we have said that before with 97L. Seems like every time we are uncertain about its development, it makes a new stand against the forces working to destroy it.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, 97L appears to be a large system with a large moisture field. Tropical storm Bonnie before land interaction with south Florida still seems likely to me. Also, 97L is about to move into 30˚C SSTs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Or Colin, and this point its a race between 97L and 98L.. 98L is winning.
98L can very well become Bonnie as it has much more favorable conditions to work with. However 98L is rather broad and close to land, it would have to spin up quickly (within 30 hours) if it wants to become Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3204. Patrap
Details:

**This message provides an update of the date/time of switch, updated
Eclipse and Stray Light Zone schedules, and resumption of GOES-13
pre-ops on 3/31**

The Office of Satellite Operations/SOCC has provided the time of the
GOES-12 to GOES-13 transition to be 1934 UTC on April 14, 2010.

The Eclipse and Stray Light Zone schedules have been modified to
include
an extra day of Partial Frame testing, as well as continued GOES-11
Full
Disk scans up until April 29, 2010. These updated schedules can
be found
at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html
(Users of NOAAPORT/GINI will continue to see GOES-11 Full Disk in place
of the GOES-13 Partial Frames between 0430 UTC and 0545 UTC until
4/29/10)

Partial Frame definitions and updated GOES-East schedules for GOES-13
can be found at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/THIRTEEN/sched.html

GOES-13 has resumed imaging/sounding and will switch back to the East
schedule between 1941 and 2041 UTC on 3/31/10.


--Original Notification--

***GOES-13 is scheduled to replace GOES-12 as the GOES-East operational
spacecraft on April 14, 2010 at 1934 UTC***

GOES-13, launched on May 24, 2006, is the first in the series of GOES-N
satellites (GOES-14 was launched on June 27, 2009 and GOES-P is
scheduled to be launched no earlier than March 4, 2010). This series
will carry the 5 channel imager and 19 channel sounder similar to the
GOES-I through M series, with some differences. GOES-13 carries
the same
imager and sounder payload as GOES-12,
but the new spacecraft bus will
allow it to operate through eclipse and most of the keep out zone
periods and images will have increased navigation, registration and
radiometric accuracy.
(GOES-13 was used briefly as GOES-East in
December
2008 during a thruster anomaly period with GOES-12).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ULL is not in demise. It is moving more rapidly now toward the TexBY SATURDAY A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND POSITION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRESENT. WE HAVE
STAYED NEAR OR UNDER THE COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON...NOT TOO MENTION ITS WARM BIAS AS OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
POSSIBLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT GREEN VEGETATION PRESENT.
as coastline!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Is a ship (at least the 50-plus knot report is). But most ships don't actually have an anemometer. Most report winds coincident to a visual, subjective and often off, estimate of wave height and the Beaufort Scale.

http://www.vos.noaa.gov/MWL/apr_06/winds.shtml

And, an aside, I happened to just find this, though I know the author very well.


Doggy Du. almost every Deep Sea Vessel has one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey....A pretty little seahorse with a red eye....
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? Can't remember.

It's funny reading them describe grass and trees as some sort of invading species which is manipulating the wx!
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3198. scott39
Quoting cirrocumulus:
scott39: The ULL is not dissapating. It is beginning to move quicker toward the Texas coastline. See Midland, Texas forecast discussion on influences on rainfall coming up soon.
Im only going off of looks and my opinion. That equals about 2 cents! LOL So the ULL is going to outrun 97L?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
3197. 7544
watch so fla wake up to a td 5 am imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6617
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, 97L appears to be a large system with a large moisture field. Tropical storm Bonnie before land interaction with south Florida still seems likely to me. Also, 97L is about to move into 30˚C SSTs.



Or Colin, and this point its a race between 97L and 98L.. 98L is winning.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011


Ahh...thanks leo...that is it, the high pressure is helping as well.

Quoting leo305:
The ULL is being squeezed by the Antycylone south of 97L and something else
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's a buoy obs I believe.
Is a ship (at least the 50-plus knot report is). But most ships don't actually have an anemometer. Most report winds coincident to a visual, subjective and often off, estimate of wave height and the Beaufort Scale.

http://www.vos.noaa.gov/MWL/apr_06/winds.shtml

And, an aside, I happened to just find this, though I know the author very well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Water Vapor that everyone has been posting, and from the NHC Satellite links shows that at the very least, the ULL is flattening out with a squashed SW to NE orientation. Could the environment that 97L is working so hard to produce helping the demise of the ULL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baybuddy:


Weird Huh?

Yes BayBuddy yes in deed....
Lets hope the High Pressure that is over us right now
stays here and keeps it moving to the west....
If not It will be "Trouble" thats for sure....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3191. leo305
The ULL is being squeezed by the Antycylone south of 97L and something else
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
3190. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3189. scott39
Is 97L going to ride cuba or shoot right thru Cuba and S FL.?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting Goldenblack:
Miami,

Good to see you on this evening. From looking at that loop, it is slightly moistening the environment in front of it (97L) as time moves forward.

Yes, 97L appears to be a large system with a large moisture field. Tropical storm Bonnie before land interaction with south Florida still seems likely to me. Also, 97L is about to move into 30˚C SSTs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


My digital is not working and my UNCALIBRATED analog reads 1015 and is rising

This is from a friends place very near to me:



and from earlier, here is the official calibrated Bar at the airport:




thanks it would be so cool seein as we have people all over on here if everyone had one and could have a page showing all the observations but im sure some butthead would docture it and put of false info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
scott39: The ULL is not dissipating. It is beginning to move quicker toward the Texas coastline. See Midland, Texas forecast discussion on influences on rainfall coming up soon.BY SATURDAY A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND POSITION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRESENT. WE HAVE
STAYED NEAR OR UNDER THE COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON...NOT TOO MENTION ITS WARM BIAS AS OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
POSSIBLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT GREEN VEGETATION PRESENT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:

From what I'm seeing on that Vapor Loop, I think it is disipating..... Now that is strange for sure.
Because I thought it would follow 97L with the
same path....
mmmmmmm

Taco :o)


Weird Huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3183. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


I can't get the cimss either or the Navy site. None has updated since 10. Can you check the cimss and see if you can get it?


Them Eclipse schedules a foreign language to me friend.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami,

Good to see you on this evening. From looking at that loop, it is slightly moistening the environment in front of it (97L) as time moves forward.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Water vapor loops suggest that the ULL causing shear to 97L is moving fairly quickly to the west. Continued organization of 97L should continue as shear continues to drop. The next problem for 97L is dry air, which doesn't seem to be a major problem at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3181. Patrap
Quoting aquak9:
ya'll keep a lid on things- I don't wanna wake up to NO surprises.

Peace!


Not this time..


No way Jose.

On it like white on rice sista..Water Doggie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L


98L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
3179. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
GOES_East or 13 was in Eclipse earlier Grothar,and the Floater Main Page has burped back to 0015 UTC a few times seems


I can't get the cimss either or the Navy site. None has updated since 10. Can you check the cimss and see if you can get it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3178. JLPR2
A little out of topic, yet weather related, anyone got a link where you can see how the El Niño areas are doing? Or at least the 3.4 one?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3177. 7544
might be a wrap going on check it it out around the coc and boy was that some jump it took to gthe nw hmmmmmm

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6617
CosmicEvents and MiamiHurricanes09: It was Midland, Texas NOAA that attuned me to the rapid pace of The UpperLevelLow. It's already supposed to be at the Texas coastline on Saturday which means goodbye 98L, "It's been nice knowin' you! BY SATURDAY A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3175. aquak9
ya'll keep a lid on things- I don't wanna wake up to NO surprises.

Peace!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3174. scott39
It looks like the ULL is becoming elongated, which is a sign of dissipating. Just saw on the news that BP is shutting down, in case of tropical system. Alot of people laid off. Not good for them.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Both 98L and 97L are becoming better organized.. dark reds appearing on both systems.
Agreed.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Buoy buoy buoy buoy buoy everywhere

Get it ripe 97L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3171. Patrap
They setting up the 98L Floater here and someone must be getting,.er..taking a break outside with a ciggy maybe.

Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery

98L is currently July 10 here..so they in slew maybe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3170. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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3169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
WIND SHEAR NOW DIE OFF.
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Quoting redwagon:
Is that for real, from Midland?

Hysterical!


Doesn't DR Lyons work there ? Or was that San Angelo ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3167. xcool
Patrap HIT F5 Western Atlantic - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Both 98L and 97L are becoming better organized.. dark reds appearing on both systems.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
Quoting floridaT:
caicosretired ya dont have a barometer handy do ya?


My digital is not working and my UNCALIBRATED analog reads 1015 and is rising

This is from a friends place very near to me:



and from earlier, here is the official calibrated Bar at the airport:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3164. Patrap
GOES_East or 13 was in Eclipse earlier Grothar,and the Floater Main Page has burped back to 0015 UTC a few times seems
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3163. DVG
Quoting taco2me61:

From what I'm seeing on that Vapor Loop, I think it is disipating..... Now that is strange for sure.
Because I thought it would follow 97L with the
same path....
mmmmmmm

Taco :o)

Certainly it is not as well defined as before.

Also all the sat images in the last frame or two have an interesting jump.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Water vapor loops suggest that the ULL causing shear to 97L is moving fairly quickly to the west. Continued organization of 97L should continue as shear continues to drop. The next problem for 97L is dry air, which doesn't seem to be a major problem at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.