97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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4562. Times2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A shift to the right at 18z should be expected in the models and then consequently the cone of error.

I am sort of disagreeing with that. I think there will be downward pressure that will keep her on a slow westerly track or stationary upon getting her act together. I don't see a quick intensification.
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4561. cg2916
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Right over the oil spill. Figures.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
It's true that Bastardi's arrogant brashness--whether talking about the possible development of 97L or AGW--doesn't do anything to help his reputation, but I don't know that I'd call him an idiot; he's managed to milk his anti-science agenda for a number of years, enriching himself greatly in the process; I don't think an idiot could do that so well...
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4559. bethie
This morning, I heard five completely different 48 hour forecasts for 97L. I am thinking that most are "wish-casting" due a slow start to the 2010 hurricane season. I'll just enjoy another sunny hot day here in the Florida panhandle.
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The only reason this storm bothers me is because I am in Tampa right now in a hotel and am supposed to drive home to Daytona tomorrow morning. UGH
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't drink, never have! How do you think I have kept my wits about me, all the long, long years!!!
Alot of prayer from Mrs. Grothar
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Quoting CaptDanny:
Has anyone used the term BullCasting


Not sure... but I know a few people on here who can be used as the definition for it :)
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4555. pcola57
Quoting msgambler:
Yeah on fox, we were talking about 15. Jason Smith is on Fox and Derrik whatshisname is on 15.

ok...my bad then...anyway any thoughts on my question a posed?

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4554. JLPR2
Well I'm off, if Dr.M doesn't update his blog this one is going to the 100s.
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4553. Grothar
Quoting Snowlover123:


I know, right? My computer said that "no more comments are allowed" lol.


We asked them to put that in just for you. LOL.
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
97L still has no convective around its center... but once the shear lets up a little more... that's when we'll have bonnie or maybe colin


The center has moved into the convection.
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Quoting StormW:


Aye!
Been on the phone with the Coast Guard twice this morning!


hey storm when you get ready to answer questions.... for the last two days it has kinda sounded like it would landfall as a TS. has that changed now? I am talking landfall after the GOM. thanks
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't tell anybody, but I bought about $300 worth of supplies last night, (you know, just in case) LOL


lol, good luck.
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4549. FLdewey
Quoting Orcasystems:


A run to the liquor store does not count :)


Huh?

Is there a different kind of preparation I haven't heard of?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Morning all!

Looks like we're going to see anywhere from a 35 mph depression to a 45 mph tropical storm at the 11:00 advisory. Also, I've heard rumors that people have been informed that watches and warnings are going to be issued for their areas. Any verification? This should be interesting, not necessarily in the best of ways...
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
HCW the initializatin on those models is way off as i am sure you know. We need the 12z models and actually the 0z to know for sure, course by then it will be almost to late. I really dont like these home growns.
The 18z models are the ones that will be important.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
What time do the HH go out today?
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Has anyone used the term BullCasting
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't drink, never have! How do you think I have kept my wits about me, all the long, long years!!!


Playing checkers at the Cracker Barrel?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning Doug! Quite the chaos we got going on here this morning..



Sho 'nuff!
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97L still has no convective around its center... but once the shear lets up a little more... that's when we'll have bonnie or maybe colin
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4541. scott39
When will TD3 be entering the GOM?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
HCW the initializatin on those models is way off as i am sure you know. We need the 12z models and actually the 0z to know for sure, course by then it will be almost to late. I really dont like these home growns.
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dr would you kindly let these guys know we have a short lived tropical storm on our hands because of the 30-40 knots of shear she will be going into...lol people are saying this is going to be a cat 3 lol how is it going to get pass this shear dr...please educate them...plus the dry air pocket over florida another fly in the mix...thanks...
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4538. Grothar
Quoting Orcasystems:


A run to the liquor store does not count :)


Don't drink, never have! How do you think I have kept my wits about me, all the long, long years!!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seriously, we need an update from Dr. Masters.


I know, right? My computer said that "no more comments are allowed" lol.
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4536. FLdewey
Quoting palmbaywhoo:

I've still got plans to have my wife out on the driveway at 8am tomorrow morning for our garage sale... I think we may get a little rain but not much as well... and if it does rain, i hope she has a poncho haha


HAHA!

Well I guess we might get some showers from an onshore flow, but I can't imagine they'll be much more than hit and miss. Meh... we'll see.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting Orcasystems:


A run to the liquor store does not count :)


The heck it don't!!
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Quoting Jeff9641:
2pm fixes will be north on the next model run. 8am computer runs had the wrong info in them still. At 2 the models should be close to correct unless it keeps building north which appears to be happening.
A shift to the right at 18z should be expected in the models and then consequently the cone of error.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4533. gator23
Quoting surfsidesindy:
How in the world is it going to get to Florida with that high sitting over us? When you look at a water vapor loop it looks impossible, plus there's a TON of dry air??!

they high is degredating, need proof? go outside and look up if its cloudy then I am right. Plus the NWS in Jax said so lol
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Morning Doug! Quite the chaos we got going on here this morning..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting Orcasystems:


A run to the liquor store does not count :)
LOL
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Quoting Orcasystems:


A run to the liquor store does not count :)


LMAO
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4529. 7544
100% from the nhc and 100 pages coming up on docs blog thats impresive in its self
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Quoting gator23:

Florida casters get a bad rep on here but these Katrina casters are worse.

I love "W" storms myself. Gee I wonder what "W" storm we will have this year!?
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Quoting btwntx08:


Steering currents blow her right here to TX
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. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

2 Hours until Tropical Depression 3.
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I don't understand. These models are showing this system entering the Fl. Straits and not affecting much land. Will this directly affect S.Fl?
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Quoting pcola57:

John Ed was a very good met on channel 5 Mobile...i miss him now that he's retired..the new guys is named jason ???...back to weather...with the present record sea temps in the gulf,imo...this 98L/or TD(depending on your viewpoint) could very well spin up again in the gulf after passing lower florida...input anyone?
Yeah on fox, we were talking about 15. Jason Smith is on Fox and Derrik whatshisname is on 15.
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Quoting BahaHurican:


100%!?!?


How does that actually work? Surely its a Tropical Depression?
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Quoting pensacolastorm:
Wishcasting is in full force this am, from people who have never been impacted by a hurricane.


I hope I'm not one of them! Btw, will be updating my blog in a few if any are interested.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
2pm fixes will be north on the next model run. 8am computer runs had the wrong info in them still. At 2 the models should be close to correct unless it keeps building north which appears to be happening.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
I guess it just goes to show, you really can't judge on looks. For a long time in 2008, Dolly looked like a strong TS but didn't even have a closed low at the surface, whereas 97L is going to get classified when its satellite presentation is less than impressive... I see the closed circ on RGB, and I've seen the forecasts indicating that the ULL is supposed to continue to boogie, but still. Didn't expect classification this soon.
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4518. scott39
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Hopefully we will start seeing a tighter cluster for a longer period of runs to know where TD3 is going!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting Grothar:


Don't tell anybody, but I bought about $300 worth of supplies last night, (you know, just in case) LOL


A run to the liquor store does not count :)
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Morning Bud!

morning jeff here she comes lol
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4515. tea3781
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:




They are initialized too far to the south!
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How in the world is it going to get to Florida with that high sitting over us? When you look at a water vapor loop it looks impossible, plus there's a TON of dry air??!
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:


"K" meaning KATRINA???? I've been stating all along how this thing is reminding me of Katrina... I hope Bonnie isnt related in anyway!!!
Relax, dude. It's only the location [so far, anyway]. LOL

[whistling] Don't worry; be happy...
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4512. Grothar
Quoting Snowlover123:


... Bittercaster?


Don't tell anybody, but I bought about $300 worth of supplies last night, (you know, just in case) LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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