97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
3233. AlexEmmett

#3 Foul language is not allowed.

In any form


#4 Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.

ok i removed it
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3261. Patrap
97L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Please all, I have been enjoying the professional comments of several people on here, and MiamiHurricanes09 is one of those...

Does the age matter, blogger/commenter knows their stuff.....

Best post of the day!
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3259. scott39
Quoting hunkerdown:
Krispy Kreme ???
Hot N Now mmm mmm good!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Outflow...
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3256. Grothar
Look just a little better.

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Please all, I have been enjoying the professional comments of several people on here, and MiamiHurricanes09 is one of those...

Does the age matter, blogger/commenter knows their stuff.....

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Miami....are you really only 13? I can count on my fingers the posters I've seen over the years who speak so clearly and informatively. However old you are, you should be proud of yourself. Remarkably so if you're 13.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Miami....are you really only 13? I can count on my fingers the posters I've seen over the years who speak so clearly and informatively. However old you are, you should be proud of yourself. Remarkably so if you're 13.


not that again. were you not here last night cosmic?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Miami....are you really only 13? I can count on my fingers the posters I've seen over the years who speak so clearly and informatively. However old you are, you should be proud of yourself. Remarkably so if you're 13.
Yes I'm 13, I'll be posting an avatar image of myself, soon...Lol.
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a quick blog about 97L,w/forecast path
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Quoting Goldenblack:
and that is even an old image...looks even better at current.

(I am still having trouble with the NHC links to satellites being almost 2 hours behind in UTC, unless I am reading the UTC -5 wrong...help?)

look at patraps posts he explained it
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3250. scott39
Quoting cirrocumulus:
scott39: The ULL is goin' west too quick now. It will reach the Texas coast by Saturday, while the invest 97l falls farther behind.
I know, a pssible worse senerio for somewhere from Texas to FL. on the Gulf Coast.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
3249. Patrap
Roger dat,tyvm
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Goldenblack, that image is only thirtee minutes old as of 11:38 Eastern. It is NASA, check at 03;25 and now is 03:38.
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3247. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:



hmmmmm!
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Krispy Kreme is the only way to go...just not fresh enough unless you have an actual store close by, and I don't

As for 98L, I would be thinking a little bit more about flooding concerns than I am seeing by looking at the Brownsville TX tv station websites.

Quoting hunkerdown:
Krispy Kreme ???
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Quoting DestinJeff:


only outliers as far west as TX


there have been outliers in and around Texas this entire time
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If you're speaking about the ULL it shouldn't slow down, chances of that actually happening are unlikely.
Miami....are you really only 13? I can count on my fingers the posters I've seen over the years who speak so clearly and informatively. However old you are, you should be proud of yourself. Remarkably so if you're 13.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like every single statistical model initialized incorrectly. Anyways, I always pick the dynamical over them though.


both sets are concerning me. i missed our local met on the 10 news :( would have liked to have seen his take on 97
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3241. Patrap
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Quoting Goldenblack:
and that is even an old image...looks even better at current.

(I am still having trouble with the NHC links to satellites being almost 2 hours behind in UTC, unless I am reading the UTC -5 wrong...help?)

The image is just a couple minutes old, the current time is 3:37 UTC.
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im back whats going on did the sat images finally update??
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Not a word about 98, I am disappointed.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting 7544:
wraping around now game on folks dmax will be very interesting we could see bonnie being born then get the caffine ready i have the dounuts

our cast is
xcool
btw
patrap
imposters lol
and i
stay tuned
Krispy Kreme ???
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scott39: The ULL is goin' west too quick now. It will reach the Texas coast by Saturday, while the invest 97l falls farther behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and that is even an old image...looks even better at current.

(I am still having trouble with the NHC links to satellites being almost 2 hours behind in UTC, unless I am reading the UTC -5 wrong...help?)

Quoting cirrocumulus:
Holy Smokes! Lookin' good.

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3232. xcool
98L HELP 97L LOOK AT - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting floridaT:
lol when theres a system that looks to me like its intensifying nothing gets done around this house. my eyes go wacky lookin at sat loops

I second that. During Ike I was up at 3 am making toast with my laptop right beside me...F5...F5...
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Holy Smokes! Lookin' good.

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3229. scott39
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Yes scott39: See the discussion on the track of the ULL which will now outpace 97L.
BY SATURDAY A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND POSITION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRESENT. WE HAVE
STAYED NEAR OR UNDER THE COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON...NOT TOO MENTION ITS WARM BIAS AS OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
POSSIBLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT GREEN VEGETATION PRESENT.
I was hoping this ULL rode 97L into the GOM, now we may have a problem, because i dont see the ULL killing 97L before then!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting 7544:
open the door now for 97l

ull out of the way

dryair fading

wind shear down as xcool posted

just like the cmc shows this get stronger around the bahamma all along

get ready for dmax we might all be scratching our heads

only 2 days away from so fla

local mets not concerned with it

boy will those be surpised
and maybe they won't
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Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Looks like every single statistical model initialized incorrectly. Anyways, I always pick the dynamical over them though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ft, LOL, I second that. My wife is very understanding of my hobbies, lord knows why.

Quoting floridaT:
lol when theres a system that looks to me like its intensifying nothing gets done around this house. my eyes go wacky lookin at sat loops
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3224. xcool
7544 ha lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting atmoaggie:
A whuuuuuut? Google not helpful with that one...


Ummmm
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
3222. 7544
wraping around now game on folks dmax will be very interesting we could see bonnie being born then get the caffine ready i have the dounuts

our cast is
xcool
btw
patrap
imposters lol
and i
stay tuned
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
True enough....just a little later than originally forecast.

Us Floridians don't want every storm to come this way, or death and destruction, but it sure peaks our interest when there is one potentially headed this way.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, but this time the one of the main force's is fading away...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3220. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
should be a real interesting night...almost makes me want to get the coffee out and go for less sleep tomorrow.....almost. About to get a little intriguing, but we have said that before with 97L. Seems like every time we are uncertain about its development, it makes a new stand against the forces working to destroy it.

lol when theres a system that looks to me like its intensifying nothing gets done around this house. my eyes go wacky lookin at sat loops
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24hrs late but, looks like tonight is go night for 97L. Still very odd looking and can't rule out a reform under the heaviest convection around 21.8N 72W. Could be a shear induced MLC but, looks suspect to me ATM.
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What has me most concerned is the speed 98L presented itself. If we have this kind of development BEFORE C/V ramps up...WOW.
If 97 had been smaller who knows what we would be talking about...not that its over.
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Quoting ElConando:


If it doesn't slow down it has a shot.
If you're speaking about the ULL it shouldn't slow down, chances of that actually happening are unlikely.
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Maybe, but I would think that overnight is going to tell us something. Yesterday we all thought that we'd have something today.....didn't happen overnight in D Max...

Quoting 7544:
watch so fla wake up to a td 5 am imo
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seems like dr. m would have given us a new blog by now??
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Yes scott39: See the discussion on the track of the ULL which will now outpace 97L.
BY SATURDAY A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND POSITION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRESENT. WE HAVE
STAYED NEAR OR UNDER THE COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON...NOT TOO MENTION ITS WARM BIAS AS OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
POSSIBLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT GREEN VEGETATION PRESENT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3212. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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