97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Tropical Storm Warnings will be up for portions of Cuba, Bahamas, and Southern Florida by 2pm tomorrow... 97L's aggravting ULL is letting up and moving a little further away...

interesting day tomorrow I wonder if New Orleans is gonna start freaking out Tomorrow or Friday?? lol

"Friday" for sure :o)

Taco :o)
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3311. Patrap
Scholarly articles for Diurnal cycles in Cyclones

About 29,600 results (0.22 seconds)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
3310. xcool
BLOG SLOW WT
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Blog Update!

July 21, 2010 - 12:00 PM EDT - 97L - Quick Update
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That's gotta be Jim Spencer...

Actually, Bob Rose, Chief Met for the LCRA.

The Midland ULL post had me laughing until I looked.... that thing really is hauling and will beat I97 by days.

It almost deserves some sort of name? :)

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Quoting Grothar:
Look just a little better.



Cat5 on the way!
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Der (die? das?) blog ist kaput!
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Tropical Storm Warnings will be up for portions of Cuba, Bahamas, and Southern Florida by 2pm tomorrow... 97L's aggravting ULL is letting up and moving a little further away...

interesting day tomorrow I wonder if New Orleans is gonna start freaking out Tomorrow or Friday?? lol
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3304. xcool
AlexEmmett HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3303. xcool
AlexEmmett :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting 7544:
97l has its eyes set right at so fla the ? is how strong could it get

a td i hope could be a strong tropical storm
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I heard that Pat, I have noticed that the blog has slowed several times tonight...we are well up over 3200 comments since this morning - seen it before, but not in this short of time.

Quoting Patrap:


The Energy with 97L is gaining Mo,..and the ULL is on da move and well.
Things can and will seek chaos when conditions allow.
Esp Aloft.


Were gonna need a bigger blog.
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3300. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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Did anyone get the popcorn yet? Who was calling for popcorn awhile ago?
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3298. scott39
What other big obstacles may lie ahead of 97L to keep it tame?
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3297. 7544
dmax is at 2 am est chris
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
Quoting chrisdscane:
what time is dmax


We are approaching it. It is the early morning hours (ideally 6:00 AM).
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3295. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
3294. xcool
AlexEmmett LOLOL
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3293. Patrap
Google.."Diurnal Cycles for Cyclones".

all the folks are using it I hear
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
what time is dmax
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3290. Patrap
Quoting stillwaiting:
you can see 97L bucking the ULL look how enlongated the ULL is becoming!!!,I said about a week ago when 97L was over western africa it would be the first CV seeded TC of the season,we'll see but I'm thinking 97L should be bonnie tomorrow night...


The Energy with 97L is gaining Mo,..and the ULL is on da move and well.
Things can and will seek chaos when conditions allow.
Esp Aloft.


Were gonna need a bigger blog.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
3289. 7544
97l has its eyes set right at so fla the ? is how strong could it get
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
Quoting xcool:




anticyclone

wowowwopwowowoowowowoowow we need shear pray for shear in september
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3287. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
TYPHOON CHANTHU (T1003)
12:00 PM JST July 22 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Northern Part Of The South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chanthu (970 hPa) located at 21.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwest quadrant


Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 22.2N 108.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/ Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 22.5N 106.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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3286. xcool

anticyclone move to 97L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3285. 7544
and a nice anti cyclone at that here we go
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
ok so maybe 97L could get a red circle by morning time?? ESPECIALLY if the ULL continues to race off to the west likeit has been...

I wonder if the models will shift back to FL Panhandle if 97L picks up in intensity by tomorrow... hmmmm...

I was reading the storm summary from KATRINA today and was reading that as Katrina got stronger than expected, she picked up on a steering current that wasnt expected - sending her SW into the southern gulf before swinging her to the NW and hitting SE Louisiana...

If 97L gets stronger quicker than expected, what type of steering currents will she likely follow?? just curious... anybody know?
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Quoting redwagon:
Here's how our local Austin met explains this three-way race to TX:

That's gotta be Jim Spencer...
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3282. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting southernbell72:
ok , where do we really think 97 is going to go , im going crazy just sitting here reading and reading , everything keeps changing every hour on the hour ..
welcome to tropical weather watchin things here can change in but a blink of an eye
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I am moving up my prediction for 97l up from 70% to 90% for a hurricane. Too much warm water ahead as per projected paths.
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you can see 97L bucking the ULL look how enlongated the ULL is becoming!!!,I said about a week ago when 97L was over western africa it would be the first CV seeded TC of the season,we'll see but I'm thinking 97L should be bonnie tomorrow night...
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Quoting redwagon:
Here's how our local Austin met explains this three-way race to TX:



I thought the 98L was suppose to go to MX?
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Quoting redwagon:
Here's how our local Austin met explains this three-way race to TX:



97 isn't going to texas???
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3277. xcool




anticyclone
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3276. Patrap
Quoting floridaT:
wow i never expected it do this well. patrap do ya think that dry air west will get pulled in?



Depends how well it can rotate that Better east side around tonight.The ULL is outpacing the Invest envelope faster now,so some improvement should continue slowly.



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3275. scott39
Quoting southernbell72:
ok , where do we really think 97 is going to go , im going crazy just sitting here reading and reading , everything keeps changing every hour on the hour ..
Go get some junk food and watch a movie, you will feel better. You got time.
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3274. xcool
97L GET better organized..
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's not necessary. An avatar doesn't prove anything. Do you think that I look like my avatar? I believe that you are what you say you are. Just leave it that. And be proud of yourself.
LOL! Ok. And thanks. But let's change the topic, back to the tropics.
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3272. 7544
nice blow up going on right now the two may just read 97l has or is getting better organized scince the last update imo

krispy kream it is
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Here's how our local Austin met explains this three-way race to TX:

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wow i never expected it do this well. patrap do ya think that dry air west will get pulled in?
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3269. xcool



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3268. A4Guy
looks like convection is picking up...and near the center. however, my untrained eye cannot tell if there is any increase in organization or a sfc low is forming
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Blog and weather conditions are the same....they change constantly....sorry, I know that doesn't help...LOL

Quoting southernbell72:
ok , where do we really think 97 is going to go , im going crazy just sitting here reading and reading , everything keeps changing every hour on the hour ..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes I'm 13, I'll be posting an avatar image of myself, soon...Lol.
That's not necessary. An avatar doesn't prove anything. Do you think that I look like my avatar? I believe that you are what you say you are. Just leave it at that. And be proud of yourself.
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Quoting Grothar:
Look just a little better.


crap 97L is saying commin in hot
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3264. scott39
97L needs to get away from land some more to help it Flow.
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ok , where do we really think 97 is going to go , im going crazy just sitting here reading and reading , everything keeps changing every hour on the hour ..
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Quoting Patrap:
3233. AlexEmmett

#3 Foul language is not allowed.

In any form


#4 Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.

ok i removed it
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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