97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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3362. Patrap
Quoting stormy3:
Patrap there has got to be a frustrated poet or philosipher hid somewhere inside you, have you ever checked you family tree. Thank you for all you do and for having clear insite 99% of the time when it comes to tropical weather.


Thats very Kind.

My Mother was a Artist and my Father a USMC WW-2 Vet and a Bricklayer.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
COC of 97L touching the eastern tip of Cuba right now and moving southwest.

Link
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3360. Buhdog
i just cant get a grip on these anticyclones that have a mind of their own. There are going to be some heads turning tom when word gets out this might be a cane by florida
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should be mainly a rain event for us here in SFL ehhhh winds 35 to 50 depends on strenth
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Quoting chrisdscane:
hi guys im new to this blog every1 is freindly right?
did you turn in your permission slip ?
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3357. Patrap
ALL NOAA Floater Imagery
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting scott39:
Ive got this "stomach" feeling that were going to have a "Major" problem out of 97L.


i do too
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good evening everyone. I am hopelessly lost and far behind. Wow miss a couple hours and everything is going nuts! I'll try to catch up. :)

i dotn recomend reading all 3,300 comments your brain will explode from some of the dumb comment people have made
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caicos ya still here whats the weather there now?
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3353. stormy3
Patrap there has got to be a frustrated poet or philosipher hid somewhere inside you, have you ever checked you family tree. Thank you for all you do and for having clear insite 99% of the time when it comes to tropical weather.
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3352. Patrap
98L Floater Up

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
3351. scott39
Quoting AlexEmmett:
scott, dont highlight major becuase this blog in this state cant handle a major storm in july let alone aug or sept
Well, If it happens, and im not saying it is, they better get ready sooner than later!
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Quoting spathy:

97L
Pulling it in and starting to wrap?



lmao
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Quoting Patrap:


We dont freak out here..

We been down the road a few times..

Media from NY and LA and points will maybe.
But our Local Mets are Top Scale folks.

Most in the field know that.


yeah, but things get freaky in the grocery stores and on the interstate and at the gas stations etc. all the people everywhere trying to do everything in time - can't help but a get a lil' freaky
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With Current Trends unfolding Gov. Bobby Jindal will most likely declare a State of Emergency For Louisiana Tomorrow lol...
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3347. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Good night everyone! I'll see what 97L does tomorrow morning.

Blog Update!

July 21, 2010 - 12:00 PM EDT - 97L - Quick Update
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actually, I can see on this animation that the COC of 97L is gonna move over Cuba.

see for yourselves:

Link
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Quoting scott39:
Ive got this "stomach" feeling that were going to have a "Major" problem out of 97L.
Dont get ahead of yourself lets see if it can organize and get out of the influence of the ull like its trying to do but not quite there yet
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3343. Patrap
97L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Good evening everyone. I am hopelessly lost and far behind. Wow miss a couple hours and everything is going nuts! I'll try to catch up. :)
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think it would still go west.Levi showed a very strong ridge in all layers. Link


Hi Homeless.....Any new models on 97L? Should we still be keeping an eye out down the road for that?
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South Florida may not present much in the way of diminishment for 97l. It's not like crossing the mountains of The Dominican Republic or Mt. Everest, for that matter.
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scott, dont highlight major becuase this blog in this state cant handle a major storm in july let alone aug or sept
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97L keeps this up should be a TD3 in the morning,heck it has the sat presentation of a developing TC and strong enough winds,its going to form,no doubt about it(atleast TS bonnie).....
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3336. JLPR2
Well, it was interesting lurking XD
Night all, going to bed earlier today. :D
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Is 97L forecasted to move any faster as it approaches, crosses, passes under Florida?

btw, I think we're going to get tropical storm watches from the keys to vero beach sometime tomorrow but probably not till 2pm or later.
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Good night. I'll see what 97L is in the morning.
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3333. xcool
BYE ULL .OH BOY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
Quoting chrisdscane:
hi guys im new to this blog every1 is freindly right?


NO
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Quoting Patrap:


We dont freak out here..

We been down the road a few times..

Media from NY and LA and points will maybe.
But our Local Mets are Top Scale folks.

Most in the field know that.


.
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Quoting jerbo415:
is 97l moving w or wnw?
West north west
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The over/under on daily post numbers for when a cyclone is approaching SFLA are:
TD-5400
TS-8800
Cat1/2-20100
Cat3/4/5-65000 before blog crashes

you may want to up those numbers
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Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Is the yellow and red one on the second picture drunk?
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3327. Patrap
97L Floater - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
3326. scott39
Ive got this "stomach" feeling that were going to have a "Major" problem out of 97L.
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That ull is losing its grip on 97L its organizing very well this evening could be a depression tomorrow night if it doesnt get under the influence of the ull again like most of the dat today.
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97l beginning to run on all cylinders.

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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
ok so maybe 97L could get a red circle by morning time?? ESPECIALLY if the ULL continues to race off to the west likeit has been...

I wonder if the models will shift back to FL Panhandle if 97L picks up in intensity by tomorrow... hmmmm...

I was reading the storm summary from KATRINA today and was reading that as Katrina got stronger than expected, she picked up on a steering current that wasnt expected - sending her SW into the southern gulf before swinging her to the NW and hitting SE Louisiana...

If 97L gets stronger quicker than expected, what type of steering currents will she likely follow?? just curious... anybody know?


I think it would still go west.Levi showed a very strong ridge in all layers. Link
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is 97l moving w or wnw?
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3320. Patrap
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Tropical Storm Warnings will be up for portions of Cuba, Bahamas, and Southern Florida by 2pm tomorrow... 97L's aggravting ULL is letting up and moving a little further away...

interesting day tomorrow I wonder if New Orleans is gonna start freaking out Tomorrow or Friday?? lol


We dont freak out here..

We been down the road a few times..

Media from NY and L.A. and points Globally will maybe.
But our Local Mets are Top Scale folks.

Most in the field know that.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
3319. 7544
dmax at 2 am est chris
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Quoting xcool:
AlexEmmett HAHA

dude are u in the sights of the storm noo im in south florida right now and my weekend is pretty ruined
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's not necessary. An avatar doesn't prove anything. Do you think that I look like my avatar? I believe that you are what you say you are. Just leave it at that. And be proud of yourself.


True That. I got my avatar from the J Crew Big,Tall and Irregular Catalog.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
Quoting Patrap:


The Energy with 97L is gaining Mo,..and the ULL is on da move and well.
Things can and will seek chaos when conditions allow.
Esp Aloft.


Were gonna need a bigger blog.
The over/under on daily post numbers for when a cyclone is approaching SFLA are:
TD-5400
TS-8800
Cat1/2-20100
Cat3/4/5-65000 before blog crashes
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hi guys im new to this blog every1 is freindly right?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's not necessary. An avatar doesn't prove anything. Do you think that I look like my avatar? I believe that you are what you say you are. Just leave it at that. And be proud of yourself.
damn, you mean thats NOT you in your avatar. and all this time...
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Tropical Storm Warnings will be up for portions of Cuba, Bahamas, and Southern Florida by 2pm tomorrow... 97L's aggravting ULL is letting up and moving a little further away...

interesting day tomorrow I wonder if New Orleans is gonna start freaking out Tomorrow or Friday?? lol


i'm guessing tomorrow night.
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Tropical Storm Warnings will be up for portions of Cuba, Bahamas, and Southern Florida by 2pm tomorrow... 97L's aggravting ULL is letting up and moving a little further away...

interesting day tomorrow I wonder if New Orleans is gonna start freaking out Tomorrow or Friday?? lol

"Friday" for sure :o)

Taco :o)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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