97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:
its not going over cuba whatever that person is looking must be a illuison


No, he is right. It will likely go to Cuba.
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hey caicos whats goin on there now? can ya give an observation?
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Quoting washingaway:


The bloggers have chosen to "repudiate" your claims!


that's ok with me. I'm here expressing what is my opinion of what I'm seeing.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

i dotn recomend reading all 3,300 comments your brain will explode from some of the dumb comment people have made


I'm not even going to attempt it. Lol. I'm already lost. Don't wanna be gone for good. Lol.
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3408. 7544
any new t numbers yet

35k jeff thats a ts right so this could skip the td status and the plane might find a ts when it goes latter
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
The outflow on the west side is terrible. Thank goodness for that ULL, ripping it up most of the day.
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as leo305 said, could be an old low and yes, it can reform under the convection.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
COC of 97L touching the eastern tip of Cuba right now and moving southwest.

Link


The bloggers have chosen to "repudiate" your claims!
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Winds are in the 35knt range right now under that convection so if a center forms there this will go straigth to Bonnie.
Yep just needs that low and some more organization
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Winds are in the 35knt range right now under that convection so if a center forms there this will go straigth to Bonnie.


NO
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
3402. Patrap
Lil known story from Katrina.

Folks knew Nash Roberts never left for Camille or Betsy as hes a met and its Job to Stay,

Folks were jaw jacking the 27th and Morning of the 28th of August 2005 in Nash's Hood and saying,Nash aint leaving ,we aint leaving.

Well round Day break Sunday Nash evacuated with his Wife.

A Hour Later 90% of the Neighborhood followed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
3400. Grothar
Really beginning to build some cloud tops.

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I agree. Especialy because of the timing. Being a Thursday, they'll be quicker to pull the trigger to allow as much Weekday time as possible to prevent a weekend surprise. They'll push the rules if it's a bit outside of the 48 hour window.



wouldnt be surprised to see a hurricane watch there either anything can happen
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3398. leo305
Quoting Goldenblack:
That you did, I thank you...but the surface low, although not closed, is right on the edge of the strong convection to the north of that, heading wnw... as it has all day.



that may be the other low.. then again it is a "TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE" and troughs aka tropical waves, can develop several swirls..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
3395. Ossqss
Click to extend, subject to change :)



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wow outflow increasing too . im impressed never expected it. looks like the steering is starting to move more west like stormw said it would
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97L is having a hard time getting anything to the surface even when things appear to be getting more conducive (similar to last night).
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That you did, I thank you...but the surface low, although not closed, is right on the edge of the strong convection to the north of that, heading wnw... as it has all day.

Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I just gave you the link !!!
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I am so sorry so new at this but what is a null? I know I know....I am asking for it...lol
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3390. Patrap
WWL-TV Ch. 4 New Orleans, La. 40th anniversary segment shown during newscast. Sept. 1997. Interview with Nash Roberts about Hurricane Betsy.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
3389. tea3781
97L has really seemed to slowed down....is it moving? maybe reorganizing to the NE in all the heavier convection?
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Quoting Patrap:


Nash is still with us here.. His wife past post Katrina .


Sorry i meant to post that to you. Always liked how they would pull him out of retirement during storms.
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Quoting leo305:


that would explain the North /North North west winds over cuba right now..

could be an old low though, as a new one can easily develop back towards the convection, or not.. who knows


finally someone who saw the same thing.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:
scott, dont highlight major becuase this blog in this state cant handle a major storm in july let alone aug or sept
Quoting leelee75k:
Is 97L forecasted to move any faster as it approaches, crosses, passes under Florida?

btw, I think we're going to get tropical storm watches from the keys to vero beach sometime tomorrow but probably not till 2pm or later.
I agree. Especialy because of the timing. Being a Thursday, they'll be quicker to pull the trigger to allow as much Weekday time as possible to prevent a weekend surprise. They'll push the rules if it's a bit outside of the 48 hour window.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


If Jindal Runs for President that will just give me another reason to Vote Democrat Again...Ugh...Anyway back to weather!


awwww, Jindal is a good man. he's just a little nerdy.
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3383. scott39
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
The big question is is what is going to happen when 97L gets in the gulf
Thats why i have that feeling! Is anything going to stop it from developing more since it "seems" the ULL doesnt want to hang around and be the hero?
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Quoting Goldenblack:
hee hee, no........second person to post like this today....Show me a map and will believe that you see something that no one else is seeing...



I just gave you the link !!!
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3381. leo305
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
actually, I can see on this animation that the COC of 97L is gonna move over Cuba.

see for yourselves:

Link


that would explain the North /North North west winds over cuba right now..

could be an old low though, as a new one can easily develop back towards the convection, or not.. who knows
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
3379. Patrap
Quoting Baybuddy:


Is Nash Roberts still around?


Nash is still with us here.. His wife past post Katrina .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Homeless.....Any new models on 97L? Should we still be keeping an eye out down the road for that?


Hey Tex. There's mainly the globals from earlier runs. Other than the ones Pat showed. Now waiting for the 0z runs. But I really like this model. Easy to read. Lol And yes still watch for it. :)

Click the check mark in the 10m under loop.
Link
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Quoting Buhdog:
i just cant get a grip on these anticyclones that have a mind of their own. There are going to be some heads turning tom when word gets out this might be a cane by florida


The anticyclone is caused by the system itself.
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Nice arc of storms north of the possible LLC. 97L is organizing well, a little better then previously thought when most had it RIPPED earlier today.I expect percentages to be from 50%-60%, more likely staying conservative at 50% percent.

97L


As of 98L, aren't you all glad they never went to a code red, look at it! Sure it's got time to organize, but I'm glad they didn't jump the gun. May organizae later tonight, but looks very disorganized. 97L has gotten more organized then 98L.

98L


You be the judge, which one is more organized as of now?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


.


Is Nash Roberts still around?
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in the words of bryan norcross sleep well south florida tommorro is a big day
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hee hee, no........second person to post like this today....Show me a map and will believe that you see something that no one else is seeing...

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
COC of 97L touching the eastern tip of Cuba right now and moving southwest.

Link
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
COC of 97L touching the eastern tip of Cuba right now.

Link
Quoting scott39:
Here we go!LOL


see for yourself !!!
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
COC of 97L touching the eastern tip of Cuba right now.

Link
i dont see that?
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3368. scott39
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
COC of 97L touching the eastern tip of Cuba right now and moving southwest.

Link
Here we go!LOL
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The big question is is what is going to happen when 97L gets in the gulf
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the BEST is when Jindal starts rattling off where supplies are and how many there are and the statistics and the times and the numbers and the locations on and on and on. it's awesome! i LOVE to watch him. he's sweating and so serious with all these numbers.
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Quoting floridaT:
caicos ya still here whats the weather there now?

same... rainy 15-18 mph from ENE

(..Caught in a Bad Invest)
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
3364. Patrap
..Caught in a Bad Invest
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
3363. Grothar
Quoting muddertracker:
Der (die? das?) blog ist kaput!


Der Blog
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3362. Patrap
Quoting stormy3:
Patrap there has got to be a frustrated poet or philosipher hid somewhere inside you, have you ever checked you family tree. Thank you for all you do and for having clear insite 99% of the time when it comes to tropical weather.


Thats very Kind.

My Mother was a Artist and my Father a USMC WW-2 Vet and a Bricklayer.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.