97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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3462. GetReal
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3461. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/XX/97L
MARK
21.1N/71.5W


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Quoting Patrap:


Nash Roberts along with John Hope Designed the HH Butterfly Pattern they fly thru Hurricanes..they were Naval Mets in WW-2.

And gained their early experience with Typhoons there.


Two of the greats. Nash with his magic marker....you knew it was serious stuff when they brought Nash out of retirement.
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whatever your drinkin leo make me one a double
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I see the center starting to get its act together right where the blob is at.
Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Der Blog
Thanks..when I took my two years of German blogs didn't exist!
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it will be interesting to see if that Arc of Strong convection North of the MLC can wrap around so to speak and spawn a Surface Low...i'm not convinced that the energy has worked its way fully to the surface...
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3455. leo305
I know this is off topic but..

speaking of frogs, I was walking in my university and I saw a LARGE bull frog just sitting in one of the path ways.. it was looking at me with it's black eyes and just sitting there.. it was so random, I took a pic and video with my cell phone =P
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Quoting leo305:
we need wind observations over the bahamas, I don't know how they don't have a radar.. it's 2010 and there are places that don't have radars..
they have radar in naussa its just not hooked up to anywhere off the island
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3453. GetReal



Two things are very obvious after observing these steering currents: 98L is going into Mexico, and 97L (possibly Bonnie) is headed generally westard into the SE GOM, probably through the Florida Straits.
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3452. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
3451. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting Ossqss:
Click to extend, subject to change :)





Not a bad take on 97L, center going inland Cuba and the remnant energy heading up to FL.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Link
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The two easternmost radar sites in Cuba are down.. but this one at Camaguey is up Link
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aight before i head to bed give me a percentage of the chance 97l makes landfall on florida a minimal ts
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New Gulf discussion out. Still looks like its west for this storm. We will see.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-220930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST SE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W
WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THU NIGHT. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE
RETREATING EASTWARD INTO MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE OR A LOW
POSSIBLY ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF SAT AND SUN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF MON.

One of the locals here in SE TX said we would start seeing the effects on Sunday. So a different time frame. I think the NHC may be as lost as I am. :)
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very cool ir sat did anyone else notice how when that moisture from espainola got near it just sucked it in?
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3441. leo305
we need wind observations over the bahamas, I don't know how they don't have a radar.. it's 2010 and there are places that don't have radars..
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I put the Center right around 22N 73W roughly or just North of the Northwest tip of Haiti...This is excatly where the 850mb and 700mb Vorticity Maxes are located
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hey caicos whats goin on there now? can ya give an observation?

The frogs outside are making a lot of happy noise because of the rain.
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3438. Patrap
Night BB
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Night All.
Quoting leo305:


if that old swirl hits cuba, the area of strongest vortocity which is well north of there moving WNW, may re develop a stronger swirl near the convection..



There is a distinct probability that will happen.
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3433. 7544
twc says this will be so fla event

Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6811
I'll laugh when the system just spins itself out over Cuba. The proximity to land, dry air, and shear will hopefully just kill this thing.

It reminds me of Ernesto where it just could not get its act together.
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3431. Buhdog
why do i want to say that the convention is amazing?
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just did a little blog update w/tropical storm watch/warning prediction map,all questions and comments are welcome!!!
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3429. Patrap
Quoting Baybuddy:


How cool is that.


Nash Roberts along with John Hope Designed the HH Butterfly Pattern they fly thru Hurricanes..they were Naval Mets in WW-2.

And gained their early experience with Typhoons there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting Jeff9641:


Ship reports of 30 to 42 mph wind gust. TWC had winds sustained at 30 mph from the ENE at 10pm. I posted this here earlier for TWC' website.


twc the weather channel??
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3427. xcool
pressure drops
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3426. leo305
Quoting futuremet:


No, he is right. It will likely go to Cuba.


if that old swirl hits cuba it may dissipate allowing the area of strongest vortocity which is well north of there moving WNW, to re develop a stronger swirl near the convection..

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Thank god, I have been goggling the name saying WTF is he???

LOL!
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I think 97L's time of Struggling is over....it will continue to get more organized from here


agreed. and with that, i look forward to the GOES loop tomorrow morn. for now, i gotta get some zss.
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Hey, that is alright...I didn't mean to shoot you down so hard. I value multiple opinions on here...keep on doing what you do.

Quoting WeatherfanPR:


that's ok with me. I'm here expressing what is my opinion of what I'm seeing.
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3422. scott39
ULL--- Wait---- you were suppossed to keep it a rain storm in the GOM. Wheres that Levi?LOL
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The center is located is at 21.7 and 73.0. Cuba does not have enough energy to cause a center right now.

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Look how far to the south 97L is. It's going to Fidel's backyard.
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Quoting Patrap:
Lil known story from Katrina.

Folks knew Nash Roberts never left for Camille or Betsy as hes a met and its Job to Stay,

Folks were jaw jacking the 27th and Morning of the 28th of August 2005 in Nash's Hood and saying,Nash aint leaving ,we aint leaving.

Well round Day break Sunday Nash evacuated with his Wife.

A Hour Later 90% of the Neighborhood followed.


How cool is that.
3418. xcool
97L :)
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Opps I meant refudiate, dang ipad
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Quoting Baybuddy:


Sorry i meant to post that to you. Always liked how they would pull him out of retirement during storms.


Thank god, I have been goggling the name saying WTF is he???
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Leo, WeatherFanPR...you may be right about old circulations...when you have this vigorous of a convection burst...even if the center was fading SW, it would most likely relocate in a weak system like this....mostly naked swirls in invests don't produce convection like this unless hte convection is momentary and then indicative of a dying system (which may yet verify, but not tonight).



Quoting leo305:


that may be the other low.. then again it is a "TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE" and troughs aka tropical waves, can develop several swirls..
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I think 97L's time of Struggling is over....it will continue to get more organized from here
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Quoting btwntx08:
its not going over cuba whatever that person is looking must be a illuison


No, he is right. It will likely go to Cuba.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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