97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


well then you can say goodbye to 97L, cuz that circulation is headed into Cuba


The ONLY circulation is the Mid Level Circulation near 22N 73W working down to the surface where are yall getting Cuba from..Nothing supports any kind of Circulation Near Cuba
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Interesting to compare ...

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Quoting Patrap:
There is no relocation.they were observing some Swirls off the ULL interacting with the Invest Flow.

Disregard


well then you can say goodbye to 97L, cuz that circulation is headed into Cuba
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Well, hell's bells. I'm surprised to see 97L on its deathbed. I thought it would really turn into something by now.
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Quoting Patrap:
There is no relocation.they were observing some Swirls off the ULL interacting with the Invest Flow.

Disregard


Ah okay now i see what they were talking about
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3507. xcool
cimss.ssec.wisc. OFF LINE LOL
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3506. Patrap
There is no relocation.they were observing some Swirls off the ULL interacting with the Invest Flow.

Disregard
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting ElConando:


Ah it will die anyway.


Lol
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I don't see any relocation i only see one Circulation and this is a Mid Level Circulation at 22N 73W and i believe this is the energy that will work its way down to the surface. You can see this clearly looking at CIMSS Vorticity Maps
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3503. Patrap
97L WV loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766


She's lost that lovin' feelin'...ohoh that lovin' feelin'....

Looks like 97l wants to turn nasty
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Quoting futuremet:
If the relocation fails, 97L will inevitably die.


Ah it will die anyway.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
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From Houston's earlier discussion

SOME FCST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS DETAILS WILL HINGE ON WHAT THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS ENDS UP DOING. HURRICANE MODELS GENERALLY
TAKE IT NWWD TOWARD THE ERN GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND THE
FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS ALL
KEEP THIS FEATURE MOVING WWD THRU THE GULF AS AN OPEN WAVE UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSIDERING NOTHING HAS YET DEVELOPED FEEL
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO TREND THE FCST WITH
THE ABOVE MODELS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK - AND PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EVENTUALLY NEEDED
BUT TIMING AS TO WHEN WE GET ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WET SUNDAY WHILE
CANADIAN/GFS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE BEGINNING MON. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO TWEAK AS FCST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

Lake Charles

MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY THE WAVE WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE WEST AND ACTIVITY FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE PROVIDED BY
AFTERNOON PULSE STORMS.

AS FAR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE GOES, THE SYSTEM HAS
SHOWN VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND NHC HAS
DECREASED THE PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO 50%.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY DISRUPTING ANY
ORGANIZATION THAT OCCURS BEFORE IT ENTERS THE GULF ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE IMPACT TO OUR
AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

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3497. Patrap
Google ATCF Images
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3496. Patrap




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Patrap can you give a link to the guidance models? Don't have that one saved.
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Quoting HellaGoose:
I think a lot of S.Fla will be in for a bit of a surprise when we are under a Tropical Storm warning by tomorrow.


A TD would do that but first 97L needs to persist and second the ULL keeps moving along.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
If the relocation fails, 97L will inevitably die.
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3492. tea3781
97L has slowed down...it may be restructuring though and trying to form a new center near the highest cloud tops (to the northeast of the old center). If that occurs I would think landfall would be a little further north. Im saying from Miami to West Palm Beach...exiting the West Coast of Florida between Fort Myers and Tampa...
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel bad, when I studied German telephones didn't exists.
*laughing so hard I choked on my bagel bite*
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3490. xcool
21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L
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3489. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Just recently gotten a chance to take a good look at some satellite loops for this disturbance and must agree with other observations that we may be seeing a new, dominant low level circulation taking place near Grand Turk Island tonight. Satellite appearance seems to suggest this and in putting satellite in motion, you can see the rotation becoming more evident as the night progresses. If this is the case, it would suggest that not only are the effects of the ULL moving west starting to take shape, but that possible tropical cyclogenesis could be occurring. Just will have to wait and see for persistence and further development before being completely sold.
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3487. Patrap
Quoting texascoastres:
Keeper and Patrap what are the possible (plausable) tracks for 97l? Trust ya'lls opinions and not ready or willing for any surprises. Thanks!


Watch the Guidance ensembles and when and if we get a TD..the NHC advisories are the Rule.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3486. xcool


UPDATEEE
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I think a lot of S.Fla will be in for a bit of a surprise when we are under a Tropical Storm warning by tomorrow.
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Quoting bwt1982:


0%
Theres never a 0 % when it comes to the tropics expect the unexpected
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3483. Grothar
Quoting muddertracker:
Thanks..when I took my two years of German blogs didn't exist!


Don't feel bad, when I studied German telephones didn't exists.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Tomorrow will be a big day for 97L. Expect the models to shift more right now that this system is gaining strength and organization. Expect a SE FL to NOLA track given the ridge to the north.


I'm not seeing that looking at Steering layers
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Keeper and Patrap what are the possible (plausable) tracks for 97l? Trust ya'lls opinions and not ready or willing for any surprises. Thanks!
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3480. Patrap
Quoting redwagon:
Patrap.... question for you.

With 98L changing conditions in the GOM, the ULL sprinting West across the GOM, and 97L attempting to meander across the GOM... can any model ensemble account for all three, and how do they assign weight to each of the features? When the changes in each are so rapid?


Each Invest is run as a Separate Entity,

..Too Much distance for direct Influence on the Surface..but some teleconnections are present aloft.

But they are no Hindrance to either.

The Angles are not going to conflict as west goes 98 and Wnw Goes 97 for now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
The environment is moistening rapidly around 97L. I would argue that this has been the primary inhibitor.

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3478. bwt1982
Quoting chrisdscane:
aight before i head to bed give me a percentage of the chance 97l makes landfall on florida a minimal ts


0%
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Link
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louisianaboy444: 97l has stopped struggling. If the trend continues much longer, it will develop into a Tropical Depression. You have the coordinates correct. It looks like the energy to the surface is imminent.
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HMM is anyone else having trouble logging on to the PSU Steering Site
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Patrap.... question for you.

With 98L changing conditions in the GOM, the ULL sprinting West across the GOM, and 97L attempting to meander across the GOM... can any model ensemble account for all three, and how do they assign weight to each of the features? When the changes in each are so rapid?
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3472. Patrap
Guidance shows a good path Between the Spine of Cuba and the Straits..of Fla.

I hope dat route isnt taken.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting Jeff9641:
I really think our COC will build under that convection around Grand Turk.
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3470. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Adios amigos!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5612
3468. xcool
Should be an interesting 2AM
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3466. Patrap
Those are Upper level Swirls Spinning off the Back side of the ULL where it Interacts with the Invest.






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3465. xcool
97L Looking good to me
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Quoting btwntx08:

it will come close but to me it wont cross it


Yes, the old center seems to be moving toward Cuba. A COC relocation appears to be occurring at 73W.
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3462. GetReal
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.