97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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97L - 50%
98L 30%

(my prediction)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3559. xcool
jasoniscoolman2010x .HOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3557. Patrap
97L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
3556. xcool
I THINK SW LA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
where's the coc going to form on this s.o.b. (97l). Thoughts?
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3554. xcool
btwntx08 .LOL OPPS .IM DUCK
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3553. Patrap
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I'm really starting to think if this develops it could be a SE TX or Louisiana Storm Pat


Shhhhooosh.

Dont say dat..

Think Fizzle
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
3552. xcool



97L





98L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3550. Patrap
Dance of the Vortices..Upper..Mid and dash o lower.

97L Floater - Water Vapor Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting xcool:
LLC NE PRico.

i concure look at the 850 vort
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm really starting to think if this develops it could be a SE TX or Louisiana Storm Pat
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3546. Patrap
Topping off a few Items in My POD for just in case one of dem colored Lines gets over the area inland here.

And the Storm follows it.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
3544. xcool
LLC NE PRico.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3542. 7544
sat on twc looks diff they even sow some purples arond the coc hmmm
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Homeless where do you live?
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wow look at the last few frames
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Hey Homeless!!!!
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3537. 7544
note it still takes it over so fla first
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Quoting 7544:
one hour to dmax and the new two

is this gthe blogs new look lol

hey is the blog acting up on u too admins new blog we need a new blog too many posts
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Quoting btwntx08:
appears the candaian stalls the system off la it looks like


It loses it and gets it bk 2 times and then inland TX/LA- ish. Second one for you Bt.
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3534. 7544
one hour to dmax and the new two

is this gthe blogs new look lol
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Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Night Keeper
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3530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i got to catch some zzzzzz
be back around by 7 am
later guys and gals
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98L doesn't look as broad as it did in terms of size, seems to be coming together in a smaller area with deeper reds.
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Looking at Current Steering maps its possibly the models could shift even a tad more West
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seems like 97L wants to get its act together, but it is still obvious that the western side is struggling. looks like running into a wall. the ULL needs to speed up even more for it to fully develop. but the banding and outflow on the northern and eastern side look fabulous. we'll see.
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700-850


500-850


200-700
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What people were seeing is the flow around the Upper level low interacting with the Invest making it look like some kind of Vortex near Cuba...but this indeed is not the case
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3523. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3521. xcool
NGP TO TX
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Question then.
Is there an L on HPC maps and the like?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
I thought that story about Katrina's eye wall strengthening over land was an urban legend...
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Thank you, Patrap.

I feel things are going to be something to get out of bed early for tomorrow.

And wondering if this unusual trifluence might help with the oil cleanup.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


The ONLY circulation is the Mid Level Circulation near 22N 73W working down to the surface where are yall getting Cuba from..Nothing supports any kind of Circulation Near Cuba


That's what I'm wondering.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
3516. xcool
OMG BLOG
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3512. louisianaboy444 4:47 AM GMT on July 22, 2010

oh so you mean some on here are seeing things?

Naw that is impossible lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7505
3514. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:


Watch the Guidance ensembles and when and if we get a TD..the NHC advisories are the Rule.
could not of said it better myself
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


well then you can say goodbye to 97L, cuz that circulation is headed into Cuba


The ONLY circulation is the Mid Level Circulation near 22N 73W working down to the surface where are yall getting Cuba from..Nothing supports any kind of Circulation Near Cuba
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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