97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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xcool,

Oh MY freaking crap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
She is finding a good groove and maybe a Surface Reflection or Developing one.


Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop



Surely hit a brick wall this early Am though.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
both are at 40% now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Quoting Patrap:
Not to be a pest,,but note the wind out East..

NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI



you suck right now pat have fun when u get the second landfall
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3608. xcool
Nice blowup COC


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
3607. Patrap
Not to be a pest,,but note the wind out East..

NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting xcool:
Patrap LOL

i have a feeling the admins are gonna be busy tommarow
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Waiting fo da
two two
under da blob
CRS
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3604. xcool
Patrap LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
3603. Patrap
She is finding a good groove and maybe a Surface Reflection or Developing one.


Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
3602. 7544
the two should be out soon
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Quoting btwntx08:
i personally dont think 98L will be 30% just look
40% for 98L
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I think the NHC will say something to this sort:

STORM LOOKS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND SPIRAL BANDING VISIBLE ON THE NORTH AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM GENERATING HEAVY CONVECTION ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE THIS STORM HAS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
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3598. xcool
scott39 LMAO :)))
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
I say the NHC will go with either 50 or 60 percent they will bump it up as they should if organization trends continue...I think tomorrow will be 97L's Day...
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3595. scott39
Quoting xcool:


Xcool you stop that right now!LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Quoting xcool:
50% NHC 97L

60 percent or higher due to close prexcimity to us soil
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3593. xcool
WSW ULL less shear
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
3592. xcool
50% NHC 97L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
3591. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
3590. scott39
Is the ULL "breaking" off N of 97L and diving WSW rapidly? Thats what the water vapor looks like!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Quoting scott39:
97L 60%
I agree back to red or if the nhc wants to take a wait and see bump it up to 50%
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3588. scott39
97L 60%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
3587. xcool
7544 HOW ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
3585. Patrap
Time to rest as the next few may be a tad Long ..

Night wundergrounder's..


.eariler

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
You want your direction, track the red ball.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I'll be back in Orange County within a week. I hope not to pack for a storm!
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Based on Cyclones Image i have to say i agree with the 00Z CMC the most based on steering maps
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
the 00Z models were initialized right in the center of the deepest convection. I doubt they will drop it seeing that, back to red IMO.


its never good when the gfdl and hwrf agree on a landfall location
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3579. 7544
pres must be falling again xcool
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3578. Patrap
GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast (using MIKE21) Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
3577. xcool
any from SE TX TO LA KEEP EYE ON 97L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
the 00Z models were initialized right in the center of the deepest convection. I doubt they will drop it seeing that, back to red IMO.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting texascoastres:
Homeless where do you live?


Hey txsweetpea. And texascoastres. I live in Orange County. :) Are you from around here? Never know. TX is BIG! Lol.
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The models look an awful lot like Andrew's track 20 years ago. Destroyed Homestead Air Force Base in Florida before regenerating in the Gulf and slamming Morgan City, LA...then Baton Rouge. Have bad memories of that storm! The models are giving me Deja vu...with the same unexpected redevelopment a potential upon reaching the Gulf.
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3573. 7544
97l says im not waiting for dmax let them have it now look how deep the reds are getting and round
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97L Looks to be taking that large swath of Convection and trying to tuck it further south into its main energy focus...i would say 97L is on an organizing trend and i concur the NHC will confirm this
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3571. xcool
I'm not putting much faith IN models .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
3570. Grothar
Is that outflow?

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
97L is really getting it's act together tonight. It should at least be a strong wave by Friday.


haha, it already is a strong wave.
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3568. xcool
98L 40% .97L50% IMO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
I don't think the 18Z NOGAPS was too off taking the Storm near the TX/LA border...it makes sense looking at steering
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97L hasn't moved much in the past few hours.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3565. Patrap
Look at the Fetch setting up and the Flow.

Sheesh.


Dats a lotta air Moving

NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
3564. 7544
wow pat thanks for that u can the really deep new conv. its getting and a spin there
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Quoting Patrap:


Shhhhooosh.

Dont say dat..

Think Fizzle


Fo Shizzle. Anyways have a good night all. See how this looks in the morning.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3718

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.