97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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98L may be TD by morn. Looking good!
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3661. scott39
NHC says the convection is E of swirl because of ULL. So they dont think the coc is under the heavy convection.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Quoting KoritheMan:


*sigh*

The NHC hasn't upped it because it's still not well organized. It's slowly consolidating because the shear is gradually lessening. But no rapid development is likely tonight, and this system isn't even close to satisfying the criteria for a tropical cyclone.


thank you, finally someone who gets it lol
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N. Mexico does not need any more rain. I hope it moves west and not northwest!
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


One word...Humberto. Lol.


98L is a better candidate at pulling a Humberto than 97L is
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3656. xcool
Humberto.LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:


persistence is exactly it

how many nights in a row has 97L looked good at this time of night only to crap out during the day. The NHC wants a little thing called persistence, and 97L has yet to show them that
That is true but now that the upper level low is moving away from it we can start to this invest persist in convection as well as organization
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

yah but its too close to florida for them to pull this politcal crap lives and property could be a stake giving people a day or less to prepare is uncalled for a foolish


*sigh*

The NHC hasn't upped it because it's still not well organized. It's slowly consolidating because the shear is gradually lessening. But no rapid development is likely tonight, and this system isn't even close to satisfying the criteria for a tropical cyclone.
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Quoting texascoastres:
AlexEmmett they did that with Ike


One word...Humberto. Lol.
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btwmtx08 isn't that a good thing!
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Wow with current trends i'm surprised they didnt upgrade the percentage i'm guessing they wanna see if this persists they may upgrade it at the 4AM


persistence is exactly it

how many nights in a row has 97L looked good at this time of night only to crap out during the day. The NHC wants a little thing called persistence, and 97L has yet to show them that
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3650. xcool
GIVE 95L 60% HMMMlooked worse IMO BACK tropical weather
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Wow with current trends i'm surprised they didnt upgrade the percentage i'm guessing they wanna see if this persists they may upgrade it at the 4AM
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
3635. AlexEmmett 5:46 AM GMT on July 22, 2010

politics has nothing to do with it, that is such a lame excuse

NHC is doing the right thing for now, again if this trend continues you will see them up the chances, there is no reason to do it now

dude im in the path of 92L and im not liking how they are handling things right now
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3646. xcool



UPDATE 97L

98L


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3645. scott39
Quoting btwntx08:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Ok, 24 hours ago 97L looked worse than it does now with a higher % for developement. scratching head?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Man this is so exciting two invests at 40% and there off!
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Quoting xcool:
DMAX YAYY

they may have to do a special two due to it being so close us soil guys i think we can have a renumber very soon or by 8am today
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The 00Z models are initialized smack in the center of the convection and the NHC is tracking the naked swirl, why??
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3641. 7544
totaly agree to close to back down this still surpise so fla and it will be to late . see what happens at dmax if this does explode they might post a speacial statement imo
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3635. AlexEmmett 5:46 AM GMT on July 22, 2010

politics has nothing to do with it, that is such a lame excuse

NHC is doing the right thing for now, again if this trend continues you will see them up the chances, there is no reason to do it now
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3639. Patrap
Dvorak

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
AlexEmmett they did that with Ike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3637. xcool
DMAX YAYY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
That rainbow infrared Radar loop by Patrap shows the strong convection North of the Center...it is definately trying...you can see its trying to pull the convection to the north over its center while developing spotty convection to its south...its trying to wrap it all together...it has a long Dmax coming...it should be Interesting
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
NHC good call on 97L, I think they want a low to become more established, shear is still evident

however if this trend continues, then you will see them up the chances as we go on into Thursday

yah but its too close to florida for them to pull this politcal crap lives and property could be a stake giving people a day or less to prepare is uncalled for a foolish
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3634. Patrap




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
3633. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Key west to Mobile?..NOLA,,Houston,,Pensacola..Apalachicola.....Lake Charles..All should have their tropical Bunny Ears on ..

Ill have to get my wifes out of her drawer. Yozer!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
NHC good call on 97L, I think they want a low to become more established, shear is still evident

however if this trend continues, then you will see them up the chances as we go on into Thursday
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3631. xcool
imo 97L 50%
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3630. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
97L is still at 40%

98L has gone up to 40%


let the race to see which gets classified first begin
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.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


wow i have really lost faith in them
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3626. scott39
97L is taking the ULL to the ropes and sayin-- "CMON GIVE ME ALL YOU GOT"! This round goes to 97L! Ding Ding!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
3625. xcool



kaboom
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3624. Patrap
Key west to Mobile?..NOLA,,Houston,,Pensacola..Apalachicola.....Lake Charles..All should have their tropical Bunny Ears on ..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting TexNowNM:
I'll be back in Orange County within a week. I hope not to pack for a storm!


I know. Even though we had plenty of practice, just doesn't make it better.
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Quoting muddertracker:


97L looks like Wilson from Castaway

FTW
you win TS bonnie we in sfl dont want her
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2am TWO is out

both are now at 40%
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homeless==== Hitchcock/Santa Fe in galveston county
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3617. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Patrap:


Dont say that.

I'll pass on nuther Big Un..

lol no im worried people are not prepaired for this and they give it a 40 percent chance that is bs
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3615. xcool
AlexEmmett Y
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
Nice blowup COC




97L looks like Wilson from Castaway
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3613. Patrap
Quoting AlexEmmett:

you suck right now pat have fun when u get the second landfall


Dont say that.

I'll pass on nuther Big Un..

Ill be Im Memphis Friday maybe..with a U-Haul.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
xcool,

Oh MY freaking crap
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.