97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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If you take the TPC / NOAA Location, loop it, there is a circulation there. It hasn't moved from the eastern tip of Grand Turk since 22:15
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
one thing i have noticed about 97L, yesterday all the activity seemed to be more to the east of the COC. now it looks more to the north. I'm not sure why- best guesses are the shear from the ULL has changed the dry air attacked it reformed center or yesterday the activity was actually to the north... in which case whoops
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Quoting xcool:
HMM 97L stalled I HOPE NOT..
Me neither that could give it more time to do something
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3709. xcool
HMM 97L stalled I HOPE NOT..
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3708. xcool
alexhurricane1991 YEP
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
If the locations are correct, 97L has stalled.
Well that could be bad it will give it more time to develop into a tropical system if it is stalled but this should be temporary as it will start to move to the west north west at 10 to 15 mph
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
If the locations are correct, 97L has stalled.


And been stalled since 22:15
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
wow... can I direct everyone's attention to the Southern GOM... Bonnie will be arriving shortly (by 2pm thursday or earlier!!!)

It's REALLY getting its act together...

OH OH OH I got it!!! 97L must want to be Colin... it's a BOY INVEST!!!! ok it makes perfect sense now LOL!!!!

ok I gotta go to bed lol
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3704. 7544
97l not moving giving time for ull to get out of the way then
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Quoting xcool:
Is this showing very low shear?
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If the locations are correct, 97L has stalled.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3701. xcool
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Hey Kori i dont know if you have taken note of 97L's current organization trends but looking at this loop it is trying really hard to pull that convection to the North over its center of circulation...i actually believe the convection is partly over the COC this is the same place that the 850mb and 700mb Vort Maxes are located...This thing may be better organized then your thinking currently

Link
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Thank goodness for the ull or we could be talking about a pretty formidable system
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
good night everybody... after looking at latest Water Vapor Loops... that ULL is not cutting 97L ANY slack... we MIGHT have a Depression by Friday...

Don't see one at all tonight and most of the day tomorrow for sure - unless that ULL does some major weakening or moving...


the ULL has picked up speed and is moving just south of due west; located near 16N 77.5W
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3697. xcool
AL, 97, 2010072200, , BEST, 0, 214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB, 34
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good night everybody... after looking at latest Water Vapor Loops... that ULL is not cutting 97L ANY slack... we MIGHT have a Depression by Friday...

Don't see one at all tonight and most of the day tomorrow for sure - unless that ULL does some major weakening or moving...
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
it doesnt have to be a hurricanre to cause death and destruction allison in 2001 is a prime example of a tropical storm causing havoc even though this probably not be a hurricane it can still do a lot of damage as a tropical storm


Certainly. One always needs to keep an eye on such systems, and not focus on intensity.
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97L needs 24-48 hrs. I think.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well if you want to precise you are correct i was talking in terms of sunrise-sunset lol
okay either way we are in the same ballpark
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TPC has a location

21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

That location has been stationary since 22:15
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3691. xcool
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the dang atcf site wont load for me
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Aye.

Those I still believe that 97L will become a named storm. It just might not be a hurricane, as previously thought. Which is a good thing.
it doesnt have to be a hurricanre to cause death and destruction allison in 2001 is a prime example of a tropical storm causing havoc even though this probably not be a hurricane it can still do a lot of damage as a tropical storm
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Well today is thursday


Well if you want to precise you are correct i was talking in terms of sunrise-sunset lol
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
98L looks pretty good right now

better overall than 97L, 98L actually has a closed low it appears


Very close to TD I believe.
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could it be that invest98 becomes bonnie and invest97 becomes colin later friday.... bonnie quietly hit mexico... and colin causes new problems for tx.... more rain ..next week....houston will have it's wettest july on record...
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Is it me or does it like convection is trying to wrap around the COC or is it the large hurricane that I just got done drinking????
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98L looks pretty good right now

better overall than 97L, 98L actually has a closed low it appears
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Yeah it wouldnt surprise me neither 97L still needs to do a lot of work


Aye.

Though I still believe that 97L will become a named storm. It just might not be a hurricane, as previously thought. Which is a good thing.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


He's talking about 98L. There is an anticyclone aloft over that disturbance. I would be willing to bet that 98L becomes Bonnie before 97L does.


I agree, if it has enough time.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Not Tonight but possibly as early as Tomorrow evening or Early Friday Morning
Well today is thursday
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Quoting KoritheMan:


He's talking about 98L. There is an anticyclone aloft over that disturbance. I would be willing to bet that 98L becomes Bonnie before 97L does.


NO actually i was talking about 97L hence my picture above lol...but i do agree 98L has better conditions to work with...the question is will it seek that opportunity
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Quoting KoritheMan:


He's talking about 98L. There is an anticyclone aloft over that disturbance. I would be willing to bet that 98L becomes Bonnie before 97L does.
Yeah it wouldnt surprise me neither 97L still needs to do a lot of work
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
No i understand if it keeps this up though then i see a depression sometime tonight


Not Tonight but possibly as early as Tomorrow evening or Early Friday Morning
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


The only thing you have a chance at beating Kori in is Yahoo Scrabble...he has a weakness you just have to find it haha


They stand an even better chance at pool. :P
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:


I do believe the "good outflow" you talk about is just the SW shear blowing the tops off...

Although I do believe the ULL has begun to leave 97L alone now... I would suspect there be significant development by 2pm Thursday (today)


He's talking about 98L. There is an anticyclone aloft over that disturbance. I would be willing to bet that 98L becomes Bonnie before 97L does.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not about winning.


The only thing you have a chance at beating Kori in is Yahoo Scrabble...he has a weakness you just have to find it haha
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
And just incase anyone misunderstands what i'm saying...i'm not saying that this storm is rapidly intensifying into anything all i am depicting is that the storm is slowly trying to organize and also showing its ability to do so now that it has more favorable conditions...this is the first time i've seen it make a noteworthy run at organizing
No i understand if it keeps this up though then i see a depression sometime tonight
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Quoting AlexEmmett:
FINE YOU WIN


It's not about winning.
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3672. xcool
:0
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And just incase anyone misunderstands what i'm saying...i'm not saying that this storm is rapidly intensifying into anything all i am depicting is that the storm is slowly trying to organize and also showing its ability to do so now that it has more favorable conditions...this is the first time i've seen it make a noteworthy run at organizing
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

I believe this is a good representation of whats going on...i circled the Center of Circulation and how the convection is trying to wrap around the center....I've also drawn the good outflow this storm is presently showing


I do believe the "good outflow" you talk about is just the SW shear blowing the tops off...

Although I do believe the ULL has begun to leave 97L alone now... I would suspect there be significant development by 2pm Thursday (today)
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FINE YOU WIN
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It greatly pisses me off when people ignorantly claim that politics is involved with the NHC's forecasting.

But as they say, ignorance is bliss. Some people will never learn.
Great post i agree
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3667. xcool
98L 97L LOOKING GOOD.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


thank you, finally someone who gets it lol


It greatly pisses me off when people ignorantly claim that politics is involved with the NHC's forecasting.

But as they say, ignorance is bliss. Some people will never learn.
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Image and video hosting by TinyPic

I believe this is a good representation of whats going on...i circled the Center of Circulation and how the convection is trying to wrap around the center....I've also drawn the good outflow this storm is presently showing
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98L may be TD by morn. Looking good!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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