97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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4481. connie1976 9:10 AM EDT on July 22, 2010
where did all of these people come from all of a sudden? lol



Hey, some of us were up before the sun... lol

and in the blog, too... lol lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting palmbaywhoo:

I've still got plans to have my wife out on the driveway at 8am tomorrow morning for our garage sale... I think we may get a little rain but not much as well... and if it does rain, i hope she has a poncho haha


no kiddin this morning on the way to work on hwy 20 outside report i saw a sign that said "GARAGE SAEL". i promise not to post anymore off topic til after the storm :)
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
For anyone here in southern Florida I suggest you stay tuned to Local 10 (WPLG) as they literally do have the best meteorologists on T.V here in S. FL. TWC should also be interesting.


Both networks will HYPE the daylights out of this first US storm of the season. Roker will be running around in a big fat yellow wet suit with a mask and snorkel like the embicile he is. Just watch.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


You have no facts to support your claim.
Just ignore him, he at this point is just wasting blog space.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
That's ok GROTHAR, I have already stocked the lake house just in case too. If one comes here fine, we're ready, if not the we have plenty of food at the lake and don't have to by any when we go there for fun getaways!
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my guess..

Its going to come in around within 3 miles either way of Hallendale Beach Blvd as a 50mph tropical storm

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TD3 really hasn't moved much since I went to bed last night.
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4604. tea3781
Quoting 7544:
if it stalls today like it did lastnight we might even get to a cat 1 idk just saying


Its isnt moving quickly...hasnt moved far in the last 24 hours!
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Agreed....more center relocation coming as organization continues?

Unlikely. The LLC is exactly where it wants to be, nestled under the deepest convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
4601. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Playing checkers at the Cracker Barrel?


Dominos in the park. My friend at a very important place in Miami, said they are scrambling to enter the current data to give an accurate forecast model and intensity. They have do do a number of diffent scenarios to arrive a an accurate forecast when a developing system is this close.
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4600. cg2916
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Model runs with intensity just updated



The NGX2 is a fail!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Morn'n all...is it time to panic yet?


Yep.. the way the blogs acting I would have assumed WWIII is here.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting hurrkat05:
reedzone no downcasting just facts ..if you learn how to read weathermaps you will see this bonnie will be a short lived ts...


Flipping through CIMMS shear map.. wait.. oh darn, the 30-40 knots is moving westward as the ULL carries it away from 97L.. Sorry man, we all don't want a storm, but things happen.
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't drink, never have! How do you think I have kept my wits about me, all the long, long years!!!


What Whits?
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Still sitting in Tampa watching. Wondering what the preasure greadent will do with winds if/when this thing passes south.
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Agreed....more center relocation coming as organization continues?

Quoting extreme236:


The center has moved into the convection.
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4593. 7544
if it stalls today like it did lastnight we might even get to a cat 1 idk just saying
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Morn'n all...is it time to panic yet?
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Quoting aquak9:
geeez...ya need a C130 to navigate thru all this.

good morning to my friends who make me laugh. Dewey- glad to see ya regained your senses.
Grothar- is it time to duct tape the palm trees?
I hope that included me water puppy...Good morning
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4589. Times2
Quoting cg2916:


He nailed the winter.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's true that Bastardi's arrogant brashness--whether talking about the possible development of 97L or AGW--doesn't do anything to help his reputation, but I don't know that I'd call him an idiot; he's managed to milk his anti-science agenda for a number of years, enriching himself greatly in the process; I don't think an idiot could do that so well...


Well you might want to reconsider that thought...one word...OBAMA!!!
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Quoting Relix:
So TD3 is basically confirmed?


yep.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting Hurricanes12:


They have Max Mayfield. He's the best in Miami, ha. Anyways, HM09, do you think this could make landfall in Miami, FL, or is this more of a FL. Keys storm?
I'm uncertain at the moment until I see the 18z runs. I'm going with a southern Florida system, anymore specific than that at this point would be inaccurate.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
yep we'll break onehundred oh by the way dr.masters has predicted this storm from the start correctly hes the real vioce of reason
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4585. cg2916
This is Accuweather:

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's true that Bastardi's arrogant brashness--whether talking about the possible development of 97L or AGW--doesn't do anything to help his reputation, but I don't know that I'd call him an idiot; he's managed to milk his anti-science agenda for a number of years, enriching himself greatly in the process; I don't think an idiot could do that so well...


when people make remarks about bastardi or cantore, i always think... geez they passed met school. They can't be that dumb to pass all that math. So I think they are due some respect even if they decided to go for the more show biz type careers.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
Model runs with intensity just updated

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4581. Relix
So TD3 is basically confirmed?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
For anyone here in southern Florida I suggest you stay tuned to Local 10 (WPLG) as they literally do have the best meteorologists on T.V here in S. FL. TWC should also be interesting.


They have Max Mayfield. He's the best in Miami, ha. Anyways, HM09, do you think this could make landfall in Miami, FL, or is this more of a FL. Keys storm?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Hi everyone - I've been a LONG time lurker here. Lived in La. all my life and have been through all the big storms here - was living in N.O. when "K" came through, lost everything and am in BR now - got walloped by Gustav when he came through. I won't be any kind of caster here - just enjoy reading the knowledgeable bloggers and laughing at the other ones!! I'm hoping this thing we're watching doesn't turn into much..I've had enough of that for a couple of lifetimes!!
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I believe this system will become a strong TS before landfall. Everyone from West palm Beach down to the florida Keys should keep an eye on it. The only positive is that it won't have time to develop into a CAT 1 before landfall
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
Quoting Times2:

I am sort of disagreeing with that. I think there will be downward pressure that will keep her on a slow westerly track or stationary upon getting her act together. I don't see a quick intensification.
The reason I say that is that the 12z models have grown outdated as the LLC moved under the deepest convection. Also, some intensification should be expected due to the very warm SSTs and favorable upper level environment.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
4576. aquak9
geeez...ya need a C130 to navigate thru all this.

good morning to my friends who make me laugh. Dewey- glad to see ya regained your senses.
Grothar- is it time to duct tape the palm trees?
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Quoting reedzone:


Ever heard of steering buddy? the shear and so called "dry air" is moving WEST while 97L is moving WNW.. 97L also has an established anticyclone. Stop the downcasting before you get bashed by other people :P


Well.. he was dead wrong about no storms before August. I bet he feels pretty stupid today.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
ok I take back my last comment I was looking at older satellite loops apparently!! does anybody else notice that some of the NOAA satellite loops arent updated sometimes?? whats the deal???
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
4572. cg2916
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's true that Bastardi's arrogant brashness--whether talking about the possible development of 97L or AGW--doesn't do anything to help his reputation, but I don't know that I'd call him an idiot; he's managed to milk his anti-science agenda for a number of years, enriching himself greatly in the process; I don't think an idiot could do that so well...


He nailed the winter.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
For anyone here in southern Florida I suggest you stay tuned to Local 10 (WPLG) as they literally do have the best meteorologists on T.V here in S. FL. TWC should also be interesting.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
NHC ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT..
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4569. 7544
when the hh goes out they will find a 45mph tropical storm imo and as it aprocces so fla with the daytime heating it could get to 55 or 60% then the seabrezze lkicks in no telling what could happen when its 50 miles out from so fla in the se bahammas imo
but thats what i see i could be wrong tho
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Quoting hurrkat05:
dr would you kindly let these guys know we have a short lived tropical storm on our hands because of the 30-40 knots of shear she will be going into...lol people are saying this is going to be a cat 3 lol how is it going to get pass this shear dr...please educate them...plus the dry air pocket over florida another fly in the mix...thanks...


Ever heard of steering buddy? the shear and so called "dry air" is moving WEST while 97L is moving WNW.. 97L also has an established anticyclone. Stop the downcasting before you get bashed by other people :P
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4567. Dakster
Quoting Orcasystems:


A run to the liquor store does not count :)


LMAO
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The CMC and the GFS have a LLC following directly behind 97L. Interesting. Neither show much if any strengthening.
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4565. Grothar
Quoting msgambler:
Alot of prayer from Mrs. Grothar


The woman is a Saint! LOL
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Quoting bethie:
This morning, I heard five completely different 48 hour forecasts for 97L. I am thinking that most are "wish-casting" due a slow start to the 2010 hurricane season. I'll just enjoy another sunny hot day here in the Florida panhandle.


It's just difference in opinions over TD 3.
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4562. Times2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A shift to the right at 18z should be expected in the models and then consequently the cone of error.

I am sort of disagreeing with that. I think there will be downward pressure that will keep her on a slow westerly track or stationary upon getting her act together. I don't see a quick intensification.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.