97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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AL, 98, 2010072206, , BEST, 0, 205N, 942W, 25, 1008, DB

winds up to 30mph on 98L

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
idk if we can trust the pine cay station its reporting a dew point of 99 current temp of 99 and a heat index of 186 F can we trust pressure or wind??
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
3760. xcool
LOLOL
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Am I too old to run away to Hollywood and become an actress? Just want to know my options in case there's ever a time I might have to run away. ;)

HPC

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF ALOFT... SFC REFLECTION SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN THE CANADIAN GLBL

FROM THU NIGHT ONWARD THE NAM HAS ONE OF THE STRONGEST SOLNS
ALOFT. THIS HAS BEEN THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM OVER THE GULF
RECENTLY AND HAS NOT VERIFIED WELL SO WILL RECOMMEND LEANING AWAY
FROM THIS ASPECT OF THE NAM. HOWEVER THE NAM DOES AGREE WITH MOST
REMAINING MODEL SOLNS THAT THE CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY SHOULD REACH
THE VICINITY OF THE TX COAST IN THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME. NOT
SURPRISINGLY GIVEN DIFFS ALOFT... THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
THE GFS WITH THE SFC REFLECTION AND TRACKS THE SFC CENTER A LITTLE
NWD OF THE GFS. THE 21Z SREF MEAN IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS
SCENARIO. THE UKMET TRACKS THE SFC LOW SLIGHTLY N OF THE GFS AND
THE THE CANADIAN GLBL IS A LITTLE FARTHER NWD. ECMWF RUNS
INCLUDING THE NEW 00Z VERSION ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE SOLN
ENVELOPE. A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SERN CONUS... SWWD
ADJUSTMENT OF LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS... AND CURRENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING... FAVOR A SFC TRACK SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE DAY
SHIFT TPC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK. WILL RECOMMEND THE GFS/ECMWF AS
THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE OF CONSENSUS ALOFT... AND A SFC SYSTEM
THAT TRACKS SOMEWHAT TO THE N OF THE GFS IN PARTIAL DEFERENCE TO
PRIOR CONTINUITY. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERSION OF THE CANADIAN GLBL
IS CLOSE TO THIS SFC PREFERENCE.

I gettin sad for real xcool. :( sniffle, sniffle, HONK!!!!! OK you can have your hanky back now. Lol.
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Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
morning WU. been lurking all night. From the looks of the http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html , the COC of 97L is starting to wrap convection fully around itself for the time being.
I prefer to view these IR's in ROCK mode instead of loop. I also like to up the speed to get a more fluid feel.


atcf coordiates show that the COC of 97L is about half a degree further west than the convection; shear looks like it is still affecting the system for now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
damn I want to go to bed, but I want to see the atcf update for 98L and the dang site is down lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
morning WU. been lurking all night. From the looks of the http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html , the COC of 97L is starting to wrap convection fully around itself for the time being.
I prefer to view these IR's in ROCK mode instead of loop. I also like to up the speed to get a more fluid feel.
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3754. xcool
98L SPIN
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98L

www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
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3750. xcool
CIMSS OFFLINE
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3749. xcool
LMAO
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atcf site went down again

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
3747. xcool
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Notice on the WV the high cirus clouds are moving S to N, but the last couple of frames they start moving to the NW.
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3745. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T1003)
15:00 PM JST July 22 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland South China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chanthu (975 hPa) located at 21.4N 110.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 22.6N 107.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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Quoting xcool:
97L stalled DAMM OR MOVE SLOW.


This is just incredible! Ol' 97l has some tricks up his/her sleeve. I really didn't think it could shake the ULL.
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and shear is still very much evident looking at the loops
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Looks that way
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according to the atcf, the center is still well west of the convection
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
3733.

Looks like the dry air is losing...
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3739. xcool
LOL
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AL, 97, 2010072206, , BEST, 0, 213N, 740W, 30, 1009, DB

ok now it is at 74W lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
3736. xcool
97L stalled DAMM OR MOVE SLOW.
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center is almost at 74W according to the atcf, looks headed right for the northern coast of Cuba
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting TampaSpin:
Yep it looks like the ULL is booking out of the way from 97L now.


WOW! Sure does can see it clearly on that sat in next post. Not good.
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Link
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97L is just gonna sit there and wait for the ULL to move away. Maybe it doesn't want to be a Bonnie and wants to be called Colin! Hope the environment is not too favourable otherwise there is a slight chance that it could become a hurricane before landfall in Florida :o
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3731. xcool
hey tamp .
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Yep it looks like the ULL is booking out of the way from 97L now.
This is not good as it has time to really get going now
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3729. 7544
tampa has 97l stalled>\?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
Quoting xcool:
homelesswanderer you better be sad lolol


Lol. ok I'll try. SmileyCentral.com
Lol.
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www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_ir_loop.gif
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Yep it looks like the ULL is booking out of the way from 97L now.
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AL, 97, 2010072206, , BEST, 0, 213N, 738W, 30, 1009, DB
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
3724. xcool
homelesswanderer you better be sad lolol
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Quoting xcool:
97l stalled and ull move way 100% not good news ...beep


Well flub!!! :(
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Quoting 7544:
97l is now sitting in the hot bath waters of the bahamas what does that tell u


Its probably pretty wet
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3721. 7544
97l is now sitting in the hot bath waters of the bahamas what does that tell u
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
pressures continuing to fall here in 97L at Pine Cay down to 1009. been falling all day. winds also been in 20-30mph range from east
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
3718. xcool
97l stalled and ull move way 100% not good news ...beep
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


98L is a better candidate at pulling a Humberto than 97L is


Yeah I know. Just joining their list of NHC flub-ups. Lol. Though I don't think they were withholding evidence thats why they didn't put up warnings. Humberto made a fool of us all. :)
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atcf site is up now, lets see what the 06Z coordinates are for both systems
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
3714. xcool
oh boy
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3713. 7544
yep not moving

but the ull is flying away this could be
bad
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
If you take the TPC / NOAA Location, loop it, there is a circulation there. It hasn't moved from the eastern tip of Grand Turk since 22:15
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.