97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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3962. IKE
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Ike, this is an excerpt from this mornings discussion by NWS San Juan that you will like.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MJO CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO BECOME HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ACROSS THE TROP ATLC AS MJO CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM
THE INDIAN OCEAN TO THE MARITIME CONTINENT. GIVEN STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS OF STRONG POSITIVE VELOCITY
POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN IT APPEARS WE ARE IN FOR
A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF LOW RAINFALL AND TC ACTIVITY BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



Thanks, I got hammered on here for posting the downward MJO. I saw yesterdays maps, but was too scared to post them.

I'll link em....Link and...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
I'd put 97L at 30% at the next TWO...based on shear/land. Future doesn't look real bright, but I'll wear shades anyway.

I'd put 98L at 50% at the next TWO...low shear..low-level convergence...upper level divergence...vorticity isn't as strong as 97L's and it's stretched some.

Maybe it gets to a TD before landfall.


20% for 97L and 60% for 98L
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Quoting est1986:
It will be TS Bonnie by noon today. Bet me!


Tough to do that when the system is decoupled and the LLC is moving onshore into mountainous terrain.
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Ike, this is an excerpt from this mornings discussion by NWS San Juan that you will like.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU JUL 22 2010

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MJO CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO BECOME HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ACROSS THE TROP ATLC AS MJO CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM
THE INDIAN OCEAN TO THE MARITIME CONTINENT. GIVEN STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS OF STRONG POSITIVE VELOCITY
POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN IT APPEARS WE ARE IN FOR
A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF LOW RAINFALL AND TC ACTIVITY BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Link
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3958. IKE
I'd put 97L at 30% at the next TWO...based on shear/land. Future doesn't look real bright, but I'll wear shades anyway.

I'd put 98L at 50% at the next TWO...low shear..low-level convergence...upper level divergence...vorticity isn't as strong as 97L's and it's stretched some.

Maybe it gets to a TD before landfall.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting est1986:
It will be TS Bonnie by noon today. Bet me!


No way. No closed low, at the very least. Even if it doesn't run into Cuba, there's no possible way it will be able to organize that quickly in such a short time.

Bet me. :P
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Quoting est1986:
It will be TS Bonnie by noon today. Bet me!

Which one?
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3955. est1986
It will be TS Bonnie by noon today. Bet me!
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Good morning. Did I miss anything?
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Quoting IKE:
How is 97L suppose to develop in this...?


LOL well it's not going to anytime soon especially with the COC about to dive into northern Cuba. If it stays over water then it'll have a better chance later today and tonight.
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First of the visible satellite images are now available:



It will be interesting to see what the visible reveals when the sun shines completely overhead.
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That's why I said the other day that I was glad that the models started out with AL in the middle. It almost never ends up that way when it's over....LOL
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3950. IKE
How is 97L suppose to develop in this...?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3949. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Time for work prep, back later. And Ike, models should be "through Aug 1" now, so I expect to see some action at the end of the runs!

Isn't that how it is supposed to work?


Yup on the ECMWF....Aug. 1st.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3948. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
97L, you could have been somebody. You could have been a contender!


I was just thinking that...if not for...ULL....

Looks like it's making landfall....NE Cuban coast....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
97L projected path
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Quoting ackee:
link


Link
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Tropical Development Possible in 24-36 hours


As of late Wednesday evening a low level circulation center appears to be forming near 21.5 north, 72.0 west or just east of Great Inagua Island in the southern Bahamas. This system is moving west northwest at about 10 mph. If this circulation in the clouds continues to evolve a depression might form from this system within the next 24-36 hours. A strong upper level low pressure area located just to the northeast of the northern Bahamas will move westward and will continue to inflict shear over the system for the next few days. This will cause the clouds within the weak circulation center to be tilted to the northeast which will limit development. If the shear diminishes there is some chance for further development perhaps into a tropical storm. The estimated forecast track takes the system near south Florida on Friday then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday then into the Louisiana coast Saturday night or Sunday. Regardless of development this system will bring rain and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas tonight. This rain will expand west and northwest into the central Bahamas, Straits of Florida and eastern Cuba on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread Florida on Friday into Saturday. Some of the rainfall across all regions stated could produce localized heavy rainfall. The mountains of Hispaniola could experience flooding and life threatening mudslides.



An area of low pressure is becoming better organized over the of Bay of Campeche. Upper level conditions are favorable for development and this feature may become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it slowly moves to the west-northwest toward the Mexican coast. It will produce heavy flooding rains across eastern Mexico in days to come.



The rest of the Atlantic tropical basin features a tropical wave along 36 west that has split in two with one part heading northwest while the other part moves due west. The northern part of this split does feature counter clockwise turning clouds but no important thunderstorm areas. We see no support for tropical development with any of these waves through at least Friday.



By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Bob Smerbeck and Dan Kottlowski

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Morning msg, cane, all who came in. :)
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3941. ackee
Quoting stoormfury:
Morning
an ASCAT pass of the EATL is showing that the wave near 10N 28W has a possible closed low
link
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Morning
an ASCAT pass of the EATL is showing that the wave near 10N 28W has a possible closed low
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Hope you don't mind if you're out there. :)
CROWNWEATHER Link

Invest 97-L – Located Over The Southeastern Bahamas:
Invest 97-L continues to pulse up and down and over the last few hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased, especially over the Turks and Caicos Islands. An upper level low pressure system to the northwest of this system continues to produce strong wind shear over it and much of the convection is being displaced to the east of a mid-level center. The upper level low pressure system is still forecast to pull westward and slowly increase the space between it and Invest 97-L. I still expect that this will become a tropical depression or a tropical storm before it tracks across the Florida Straits on Friday.

The overall model consensus has shifted westward overnight and it appears that 97-L will track across the Gulf of Mexico from Friday night through Sunday morning. Yesterday, I thought that the ridge of high pressure would hold strong and shunt this west-northwestward and it seems the latest model guidance agrees with my thinking. The hurricane consensus models forecast that this system will eventually come ashore somewhere between Beaumont, Texas and Morgan City, Louisiana during Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the WRF model forecasts that 97L will come ashore near Corpus Christi during Monday evening as a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm.
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Quoting msgambler:
Windyn, you can spell con leche but not keys...LOL Remember it is a shot of whiskey in the coffee not the other way round...LOL....Good morning
mornin gambler yes i can always spell con leche...
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Windyn, you can spell con leche but not keys...LOL Remember it is a shot of whiskey in the coffee not the other way round...LOL....Good morning
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Quoting msgambler:
morning Abaco


Another day in paradise!

Surf is building but blown out a bit.

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3935. MahFL
Nothing is going to form with 40 kts of shear around.
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Good morning all!

Looking forward to some intersting debate and discussion today..97-L is keeping the experts
on their toes,too,lol.

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morning Abaco
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except for us down here in the ekys meaning keys sheesh havent had my con leche yet this morning fingers arent working yet
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The models will re-address themselves when a new COC forms near the deep convection. The convection is sustaining itself without the COC. The COC was never sustaining convection before. Lookout for a new center to form...

Quoting atmosweather:


Finally a significant SW-ward shift in the recent model runs. The ridge is and always was far too strong and stable for a FL landfall.
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Quoting msgambler:
Ike, Destin, homeless, Baha has already left for work (so he says), and everyone else, good morning. The best part of the day, let's hope it doesn't go dowwnhill from here. Weather wise and blog wise.


Oh and what the F is that supposed to mean......LOL Just kidding.

Good morning!
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Quoting canehater1:
Ridge is forecast to retreat Eastwd Sun or Mon.
as of last nights discussion from NWS N.O., but
the exact timing of these movements is always
hard to nail down..Thus the spread in landfall
estimates between TX and MS/La coasts. However,
it is supposed to be in position long enough to spare most of Fla.
except for us down here in the ekys.. our weather forecast for friday will be "Rain drops keep falling on my head" this will be just the first of many this season to visit near us i am thinking
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Quoting DestinJeff:
ULL diving SW on wv

Link


Yeah, I noticed that, too. Do you think this will block off 97L even more?
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Ike, Destin, homeless, Baha has already left for work (so he says), and everyone else, good morning. The best part of the day, let's hope it doesn't go dowwnhill from here. Weather wise and blog wise.
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Ridge is forecast to retreat Eastwd Sun or Mon.
as of last nights discussion from NWS N.O., but
the exact timing of these movements is always
hard to nail down..Thus the spread in landfall
estimates between TX and MS/La coasts. However,
it is supposed to be in position long enough to spare most of Fla.
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Pressure at BOC Buoy 42055 continuing to fall...now down to 1009.1 mb.
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3924. IKE
BOC buoy at 22N and 94W....near 98L....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 99 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Operational GFS through 78 hours...


Finally a significant SW-ward shift in the recent model runs. The ridge is and always was far too strong and stable for a FL landfall.
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3921. IKE
Operational GFS through 78 hours...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DestinJeff:


I'm just waking up good before I go for a run.

I don't get lost in Wunder-world until at least 10 minutes after I get to work.


Lol. Ok :)
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3919. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T1003)
18:00 PM JST July 22 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland South China

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chanthu (980 hPa) located at 21.7N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 22.8N 107.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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This is a CV wave. You can't destroy these easily...There's too much convection going on to the north. We've seen this happen before and a new center appears. Wishful thinking butit's not going away.
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3916. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. You wanna car pool to the Hurricanes Anonymous meeting.


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting BahaHurican:
I dunno.... at least one of the models has been pointing to such a track all along.... though which one was subject to change.

Geez, it's practically 6:00! I gotta get outta here....

L8r ya'll. Hope I don't have to cope w/ too much rain today....


Stay dry. have a good one.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I dunno.... at least one of the models has been pointing to such a track all along.... though which one was subject to change.

Geez, it's practically 6:00! I gotta get outta here....

L8r ya'll. Hope I don't have to cope w/ too much rain today....


Hope it's not too rough!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I also think the real Ike has some magical power to control these storms through the power of suggestion.


Lol. You wanna car pool to the Hurricanes Anonymous meeting.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I also think the real Ike has some magical power to control these storms through the power of suggestion.
I dunno.... at least one of the models has been pointing to such a track all along.... though which one was subject to change.

Geez, it's practically 6:00! I gotta get outta here....

L8r ya'll. Hope I don't have to cope w/ too much rain today....
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.