97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Looks to me like the ULL is trying to lighten up. Not sure if that's what I see or not, Ike help here.
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4010. IKE
You can see the circulation spinning in eastern Cuba...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
what are you talking about next year the season just started and no body is wish casting as far as I can tell


He's just trying to cause trouble.

Just ignore em.
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Sneaky...

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what are you talking about next year the season just started and no body is wish casting as far as I can tell
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BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 24N72W 18N75W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR IS OVER THE TROUGH DISPLACING CONVECTION TO MOSTLY NE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
71W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-76W. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-12 KT. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Ike, so I'm guessing they are keeping both systems within medium chances of development according to what you posted?


No, thats according to the 2am TWO.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like we may see TD3 later today.

Surface observations indicate a possible low level circulation trying to form.

I'm not going to doubt that.
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4000. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Ike, so I'm guessing they are keeping both systems within medium chances of development according to what you posted?


Just my amateur guess. They may do different...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
how fast is 97L moving I went to bed last night at 1 am and it looks like it has not moved at all
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Ike, so I'm guessing they are keeping both systems within medium chances of development according to what you posted?
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Looks like we may see TD3 later today.

Surface observations indicate a possible low level circulation trying to form.
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You are right what I mean is has not moved out of the way. if that happens then we might have something to really talk about
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3992. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

CORRECTED FOR TRANSMISSION/ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 24N72W 18N75W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR IS OVER THE TROUGH DISPLACING CONVECTION TO MOSTLY NE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
71W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-76W. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-12 KT. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N94W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO S MEXICO AT 17N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
93W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-12 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
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3990. leo305
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
that ULL has not moved thats what's killing it if it were to move just a little watch out


the ULL has moved, and is moving faster than 97L..
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3988. est1986
I wanna learn how to locate the ULL on sattelite image. Can someone pm me how to do so?
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3987. IKE
Latest NOGAPS kills the vorticity of 97L over the GOM...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3985. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W
WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLE
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RIDGE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN THEN MOVE E INTO AS A
TROUGH OR A LOW ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF SAT AND SUN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF MON.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
ASCAT pass of the well defined wave in the E Atlantic.
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that ULL has not moved thats what's killing it if it were to move just a little watch out
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FRIDAY NIGHT...A TROPICAL WAVE OR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...
IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
ANY TROPICAL WAVE OR LOW MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOME PORTION OF NORTH
GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...WILL BE KEEPING THE POP ABOVE THE CLIMO
NORMS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT AT THIS
TIME AM CONTINUING TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

(From N.O> NWS discussion)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WindynEYW:
97L projected path


UGH! Don't like the center of that cone. Thanks for posting it thouh. :)
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3979. MahFL
It takes the spill boats 5 days to get to safe harbour, so thats why they stop 5 days before it strikes, you can't get to safe harbour/condition if the storm is ontop of you.
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Quoting IKE:

97L looks looks like it has very impressive outflow it its east side.
I can't see the COC approaching Cuba that everyone was talking about, though.
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


I keep wondering the same.
BP has laid off many VOO boats in Al and MS untill 97L passes us in the Gulf and I heard something about work at the spill site has stopped, but I can't comfirm that....do they know something wedon't? They act like this thing is going to form


It's a precautionary measure.
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3975. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


I keep wondering the same.
BP has laid off many VOO boats in Al and MS untill 97L passes us in the Gulf and I heard something about work at the spill site has stopped, but I can't comfirm that....do they know something wedon't? They act like this thing is going to form


I don't get it either....yet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3974. WxLogic
Good morning...
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3973. est1986
Ah, well the internet is slow here at work otherwise i'd look for myself. How fast is 97l moving?
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wow, need coffee and my glasses
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Quoting est1986:
Blah, well I just arrived at work and have a few reports to do thankfully I get to chat with everyone when I can about hurricaranas! SA storm never rapidly strengthned in a few hours and went from a low to a cat 1?


Not in the face of strong vertical shear, dry air, and possible land interaction.
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3968. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
BP os stopping work because of an invest rated at 40%? Wow, wpnt ther be something at 30-40 percent or more for the rest of the season?
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morning gulfcoast
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3964. est1986
Blah, well I just arrived at work and have a few reports to do thankfully I get to chat with everyone when I can about hurricaranas! A storm never rapidly strengthned in a few hours and went from a low to a cat 1?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3962. IKE
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Ike, this is an excerpt from this mornings discussion by NWS San Juan that you will like.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MJO CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO BECOME HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ACROSS THE TROP ATLC AS MJO CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM
THE INDIAN OCEAN TO THE MARITIME CONTINENT. GIVEN STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS OF STRONG POSITIVE VELOCITY
POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN IT APPEARS WE ARE IN FOR
A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF LOW RAINFALL AND TC ACTIVITY BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



Thanks, I got hammered on here for posting the downward MJO. I saw yesterdays maps, but was too scared to post them.

I'll link em....Link and...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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