97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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4062. QMiami
so what does anyone think now that it is about 24hrs or so from the keys or S FL - do you think they put out watches or warnings? or do they wait for a depression status
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Quoting futuremet:


98L is too close to land.


98L has over a day or so left over water per NHC, models. 98L will probably develop into a tropical depression.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
4059. calder
Think that's a good spot on the COC Ike, just on the north coast of cuba. You can really see the shear impacting 97L in one vert line, quite an interesting system to watch with the way the ULL is undecided whether to move off or not.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You can see it here under the new cumulonimbus.

Whoa...I can't believe I didn't notice that...
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4057. gator23
Quoting IKE:


If that's where the center is...yeah, that changes everything.


I hate so very much these back door storms, They are almost impossible to track, they form right on top of you and generally strengthen more than forecasted.
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Seems like upper-level conditions may improve a bit today and I guess that would allow for TD3/4 or Bonnie/Collin to form.
Doesnt look too bad with that new center fix.
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Goood Afternoon Everyone.... Michael From Scotland Back

i see 97L is back To Code Red Didnt Expect That Though 98l Wil Go Code Red Later
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I am not convinced there is a low level circulation at this point. All I see is an open wave (trough) with ENE winds in Cuba and ESE winds on the eastern side. I have been reading some of the area NWS forecasts and I can't find any mention of anything more than a trough passing by S. Fla tomorrow, which is a relief.
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4053. IKE
Dominate center must be forming under the blob...and there is a pocket of lower shear there...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

O.o 97L= 70%? What did I miss?!
98L= 50% That seems right.


98L is too close to land.
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P451 is right on the money.
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I wish that I was Cuban....maybe then I would be beautiful!! I live in S. Fl and let me tell you....there are some of the most beautiful women ever here....I'm origionally from Orlando....whenever I visit family in Orlando....I feel pretty again...then I come back here and back to ugly....lol...
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
98L looks very impressive this morning as well..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
4047. whs2012
Quoting gator23:

both IMO, but too early to tell landfall locations in that area because
1)no well defined LLC so GIGO
2)the ridge may weaken or it may strengthen or both or neither.


Ok, thanks!
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Quoting IKE:
Then the center I've been tracking of 97L is not the center according to the NHC.

Well...I got 98L right.


You can see it here under the new cumulonimbus.
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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

O.o 97L= 70%? What did I miss?!
98L= 50% That seems right.
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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


NHC has acknowledged that 97L still has a chance to develop. Ike, the old center is indeed interacting with Cuba, but vorticiy maxima is located near the Bahamas.
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From NWS in Central Texas: ANOTHER FEATURE MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS
FROM THE EAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEDND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE TUTT LOW WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE ON ITS HEELS WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD
MAKE FOR DESTABILIZED WEATHER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ERRATIC
MODEL OUTPUT ON HOW THIS COMPLICATED FEATURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...LATE PERIODS WERE DAMPENED TO REFELECT A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAILY AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER WX TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

Seems like they do not know what will happen to 97L?
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4042. IKE
Quoting gator23:

oh boy the models are going to shift. Its int he southern Bahamas. Florida is back in play IMO


If that's where the center is...yeah, that changes everything.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Man your battle stations! Bonnie and Colin are forming! We have a red alert for 97L and a 50% for 98L!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
4040. gator23
Quoting IKE:
Then the center I've been tracking of 97L is not the center according to the NHC.

Well...I got 98L right.

YAY and I got one right!
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4039. gator23
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

oh boy the models are going to shift. Its int he southern Bahamas. Florida is back in play IMO
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WinterAnaIystwx13 you have been reported you are not needed in this blog
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4037. IKE
Then the center I've been tracking of 97L is not the center according to the NHC.

Well...I got 98L right.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
There are some majorly screwed up people in this world!!!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
Wow...

70%

Did NOT expect that.

...A tropical depression or a tropical
storm could form at any time today...
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4034. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
4033. gator23
Quoting WinterAnaIystwx13:
Who cares about florida anyways... its filled with Cubans and Haitians refs. Florida is part of a third world country, and I don't pity those who live in it.

nuff said

I am a Cuban-American. And I pity you. And by third world country of course you mean one of the largest economies in the world. Got it. IGNORE
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4025. WinterAnaIystwx13

and move on.

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4025 Idiot-caster POOF!!
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Quoting P451:
48HRs, color enhanced WV Imagery (your delineation is light blue=dry light green=moist)

Separating from the ULL a bit maybe? 97 Isn't gone. PoofCasters beware (lol). It's still there. IMO it will be Bonnie. Question is more of how strong will Bonnie be at the end of her life. Absolutely unknown. Just keep watching.



I wouldn't say it would be Bonnie, since Bonnie seems to be forming in the BOC. 97L would be Colin.
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4025 reported and ignored
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4028. gator23
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
Ike you can see What I belive to be a slight jog to the northwest and thunderstorms trying to wrap around it just have to zoom in

yes this is what I am referring too as well, maybe the convection is fooling me but I peg the COC north of Cuba in the extreme southern Bahamas
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I concur with P451. The upper level low has weaken considerably, and the wind shear damaged symptoms are less profound than yesterday. I do not see any substantial streaming patterns in the clouds.
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4024. gator23
Quoting whs2012:
Are the models agreeing with a tx/la landfall (my hypothesis from the model trends since the beginning :D) because the ridge is stronger and pulling her to the west, or the same principle still applies about the weaker she is, the more west she'll go?

Thanks!

both IMO, but too early to tell landfall locations in that area because
1)no well defined LLC so GIGO
2)the ridge may weaken or it may strengthen or both or neither.
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4022. est1986
Thank you P451


Quoting P451:


Of course. See my post below yours? See that system north of the bahamas? It's NW of 97? That's an ULL. Can't miss em. Big dynamic features that dominate the imagery.

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Quoting P451:
48HRs, color enhanced WV Imagery (your delineation is light blue=dry light green=moist)

Separating from the ULL a bit maybe? 97 Isn't gone. PoofCasters beware (lol). It's still there. IMO it will be Bonnie. Question is more of how strong will Bonnie be at the end of her life. Absolutely unknown. Just keep watching.


the ULL IMO is traveling in tandem with 97L ahead of it not pulilng away
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Ike you can see What I belive to be a slight jog to the northwest and thunderstorms trying to wrap around it just have to zoom in
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4018. gator23
Ike, I cant really see it the circulation there, although and it could just be "convection casting" it looks like a Low level spin on satellite in the southern Bahamas. Your thoughts?
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Wow stormchaser just got up was about to say 1/2 a storm is better than none but your 4008 post is a little scary.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
4016. whs2012
Are the models agreeing with a tx/la landfall (my hypothesis from the model trends since the beginning :D) because the ridge is stronger and pulling her to the west, or the same principle still applies about the weaker she is, the more west she'll go?

Thanks!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Sneaky...


Impressive little Invest.
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Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:
what are you talking about next year the season just started and no body is wish casting as far as I can tell


Because. I don't believe a tc will strike Florida this year. Most of these forecast WU have been wrong about their forecast. sorry florida it ain;t gonna happen.
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4013. IKE
Quoting IKE:
You can see the circulation spinning in eastern Cuba...Link


Northern part of it may be off shore, but part of it is over land.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.