97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Latest model runs from the NHC

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4111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good day bloggers
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4096-Go somewhere else with your anger, again, not the place for your "off topic" conversation!!
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Quoting WinterAnaIystwx13:


The truth has to be told my friend.
Quoting WinterAnaIystwx13:


The truth has to be told my friend.


Dude - How about sticking to the tropics on this blog. We've got some great weather systems to analyze here
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4108. IKE
4096....sorry you got laid off but he could have been black, white, brown, yellow, red, blue...Hispanic...American...German...it doesn't matter...people are people.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
4107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
next comes empty space
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4105. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4061. WinterAnaIystwx13
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards
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4103. gator23
Quoting StormHype:


Agree. If there is any spin presently it looks to be west of the convection just off the NE cuban coast.... but then again I haven't had my morning coffee yet.

The NHC has put the center under the convection in the Bahamas, all bets are off folks
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Quoting IKE:


Interested in what recon finds. South Florida back in play.

The SHIPS 6 am coordinates were 21.3N and 74.0W.

This is further north and east.


Ike, you were in fact right about the location of the COC. However, it started to relocate late last night when convection was increasing near the Bahamas.The old COC is now over Cuba.
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Looks like we are off to the races with 97L
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4051 Not caring about an area because of its peoples ancestry may be an "opinion" but it's inciteful and offensive. Less importantly, it really has nothing to do with the topic at hand.
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stormchaser,

That is exactly what I was thinking! I think that it's someone who just needs attention....
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Quoting extreme236:
Looks like we could easily see two tropical cyclones today.

Cool. I hope no one is hurt during them though...
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4094. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:
I told you guys that was the coc forming. IKE no worries brother it just weather and I can't tell you how many times I've been wrong on here.

your good in my book, you were right about Alex too
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I'm kind of surprised the chance for 98L wasn't raised to high on the TWO. It looks about as well organized as 97L does right now. I'm very curious as to what the T-numbers will be.
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4092. amd
Looks like 97L has decided to form a new COC just under the new blowup of thunderstorms. I don't think people were wrong in assuming that 97L was over Cuba because there was definitely a lower-level circulation of 97L heading to and inland over Cuba.

Unfortunaly, 97L has finally decided to relocate, and has done so in a much lower shear environment.

98L could be a TD or even TS at any time today. Small storms in the BOC can ramp up quickly, and hopefully will move inland before there is too much intensification.

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Quoting extreme236:
Looks like we could easily see two tropical cyclones today.


Looks that way.

It'll be interesting when that recon flight heads in later.
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4090. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:
I called this center last night. Just saying!!!!

jeff, and you may be right WPB is back in play
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4061.
You just want to get banned, don't you?
You are supposed to talk about a recently used topic in the blog, like the possible development
of 97L and 98L. NOT immigration.
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4087. gator23
Quoting calder:
Think that's a good spot on the COC Ike, just on the north coast of cuba. You can really see the shear impacting 97L in one vert line, quite an interesting system to watch with the way the ULL is undecided whether to move off or not.

nhc has the center in the souther Bahamas, Ike was off.
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Looks like we could easily see two tropical cyclones today.
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Jeff 9641 yes you did I was here good one
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4082. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


That is what we've been sqaying all night. There seem to be multiple swirls with one dominate one in the SE Bahamas west of Grand Turk by about 75 to 100 miles. It can get confusing looking at the sat trying to find a coc.


I got sidetracked with the 6am SHIPS coordinates and was following that swirl.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Are we really dealing with a racist at 8am?

Unreal.

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4079. IKE
Quoting calder:
Think that's a good spot on the COC Ike, just on the north coast of cuba. You can really see the shear impacting 97L in one vert line, quite an interesting system to watch with the way the ULL is undecided whether to move off or not.


NHC has it further north and east....

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


What I was tracking must be the old/dying center that is racing west.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Well I just got schooled. I didn't expect that it would go red. If Avila thinks that a TD or TS can form anytime, then I believe him before anyone else. So the "center" is not moving on to the coast of Cuba. If you look at the RGB loop you can see the center (now that I know where to look).
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Quoting southfla:
I am not convinced there is a low level circulation at this point. All I see is an open wave (trough) with ENE winds in Cuba and ESE winds on the eastern side. I have been reading some of the area NWS forecasts and I can't find any mention of anything more than a trough passing by S. Fla tomorrow, which is a relief.


Agree. If there is any spin presently it looks to be west of the convection just off the NE cuban coast.... but then again I haven't had my morning coffee yet.
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98L will be Bonnie, check out the buoy reading there. It still has 24 hours to develop in ripe conditions. Link
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Double Wow!! Didn't see that coming- that's some pretty strong language from the NHC
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Yesterday it seemed like we had nothing, by end of today we could have 2 tropical storms, how things change


Yea, we might be 3-1-0 by the end of the day! So much for an inactive season.. we'd be 1 behind 2008.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
....so is the ull moving away?
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WinterAnaIystwx13 please go away and never come back admin please ban this IDIOT
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4068. KORBIN
That Noaa gulfstream must of found some stuff we can't see on models.
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4067. IKE
4061...you'll never survive on here with those comments.

If you're that ticked off, back away from the computer keyboard.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Seems like upper-level conditions may improve a bit today and I guess that would allow for TD3/4 or Bonnie/Collin to form.
Doesnt look too bad with that new center fix.

At least Recon will go in now and check it out should be interesting what they find.
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Yesterday it seemed like we had nothing, by end of today we could have 2 tropical storms, how things change
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Quoting WinterAnaIystwx13:
In real America! you could have your very own opinion and will not criticize by fellow Americans.
In America you have the right to your opinion as much as it is the right for others to differ on your opinion. Of course that is just my opinion..
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4063. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Seems like upper-level conditions may improve a bit today and I guess that would allow for TD3/4 or Bonnie/Collin to form.
Doesnt look too bad with that new center fix.


Interested in what recon finds. South Florida back in play.

The SHIPS 6 am coordinates were 21.3N and 74.0W.

This is further north and east.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
4062. QMiami
so what does anyone think now that it is about 24hrs or so from the keys or S FL - do you think they put out watches or warnings? or do they wait for a depression status
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.