97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



this image is someone else's that was posted on another blog but it shows the center very well


still lots of shear. if the conditions ever got good it would be a strong one. but it looks like they will never be that good.
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4161. gator23
Quoting connie1976:
I see all of the models....does that mean we aren't going to get much rain in s. fl now? ....and is the ull moving away now?

you will get more rain.
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Quoting jeebsa:
Good morning all.Just got on. Is there a COC farther north than they thought, and do you think the models will shift north more toward Florida.
I have a huge mango tree with fruit all over it.
there almost ready. Wondering if I should pick them early.


Nah...Pick um off the ground if they fall. Leave the ones up that stay. Put um in your smoothie and have a great day! LOL

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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
someone posted that TD 3 has formed on another forum and used this as a support is this true:

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD

yes that is a TD per the initials but 21.6 North interesting hmm but no sale until Recon gets there.
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Anyone know what the strength is for 97L and the ridge for the next 24hrs? (model maps help) TIA
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I think 97L is finally feeling the steering effects of the low level florwish flow.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
someone posted that TD 3 has formed on another forum and used this as a support is this true:

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD


No renumber yet but I see that.
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4154. gator23
Quoting whs2012:


How far north?

south Florida back in play
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....
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Quoting whs2012:


Those models look further south to me. :/ are they old?


A couple of the models have shifted left (as far as Fla. is concerned) since I last looked a few hours ago
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
someone posted that TD 3 has formed on another forum and used this as a support is this true:

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD


There was no renumber.

No TD.
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4149. Wots
Morning all

COC visible on Piedra Grande Cuban radar

Link
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4148. jeebsa
Good morning all.Just got on. Is there a COC farther north than they thought, and do you think the models will shift north more toward Florida.
I have a huge mango tree with fruit all over it.
there almost ready. Wondering if I should pick them early.
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
I see all of the models....does that mean we aren't going to get much rain in s. fl now? ....and is the ull moving away now?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
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James Spann

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someone posted that TD 3 has formed on another forum and used this as a support is this true:

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD
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Does this mean that S.FL is at risk? The models seem to shift further south after every TWO.
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Quoting gator23:

The NHC has put the center under the convection in the Bahamas, all bets are off folks


Yup.... should have my coffee and banana first.
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4141. whs2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The models will definitely shift some amount north.


How far north?
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



this image is someone else's that was posted on another blog but it shows the center very well


Bingo!!!
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Quoting StormW:


Jeff,

Good call on that center reformation!
KUDO'S


Got to be right sometime StormW. Vorticity was supporting a center to form there that what i was trying to say yesterday and the models will shift back to S FL today. I still think a SE FL to NOLA system. Anyways thanks a lot buddy I appreciate your post as many others do on this blog as you are the real deal Weather Chief.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
4138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting IKE:


Those model runs should shift north some.


I agree Ike. Like you, this latest update has taken me a bit by surprise.
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4136. ph34683
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



this image is someone else's that was posted on another blog but it shows the center very well


THANKS!!!
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Quoting IKE:
Now I don't blame BP for shutting it down.


Is the cap still on though?
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4134. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



this image is someone else's that was posted on another blog but it shows the center very well


Looks slightly further north and east then where that L is. I could be wrong though.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
GHCC Rapid Scan Loop centered on 97L.
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Interesting. The TWO says 98L is moving 10-15 but the TPC SFC map (albeit a few hours old) says it's stationary. Must be why they think it could take a day or two to move inland.

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4131. FLdewey
Can we stop quoting the toolbox? I just got here and I'm already sick of him.
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97L is so unpredictable...

So since the new COC is further north does this mean that South Florida might be at risk again?
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4129. whs2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Those models look further south to me. :/ are they old?
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I reported WinterAnaIstwx13 after he insulted Hispanics. That is just too racist. So lets just wait for him to get banned so we can observe our Invests in PEACE!
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WinterAnaIystwx13 It does not matter who replaced you I guess you were not doing your job period a
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this image is someone else's that was posted on another blog but it shows the center very well
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
4061. WinterAnaIystwx13
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards


Keep there is another blogger with a similar username, I hope he does not get banned because he did not do anything, notice the difference in spelling.
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The models will definitely shift some amount north.
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4123. IKE
Now I don't blame BP for shutting it down.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
4122. whs2012
Quoting WinterAnaIystwx13:
I just got laid off yesterday! and was replaced by an Hispanic male. And guess how classy the man was by taunting me and my children. that is the reason I am mad.


Well, this isn't the place to talk about it, cuz we don't honestly care. This isn't the 'cry about losing my job and make racist comments' blog, it's a 'weather' blog!
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4121. srada
Good Morning everyone

Looks like 97L is coming back..so if the new center is north and east..does that mean a more northern hit for FL?
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Good call Jeff!
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4117. gator23
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Latest model runs from the NHC


these are the old ones
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4115. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Those model runs should shift north some.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
4114. ph34683
With all the different coordinates flying around, I'm confused...could someone mark the COC for 97L on a map for me? Sorry...I'm just an average idiot trying to keep up with you guys.

Thanks!
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Latest model runs from the NHC

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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