97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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IMO we go straight to TS no depression
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Morning All I see TD3 is unofficially born. Looking forward to a track and reasoning from the NHC.



Shear died off BIG TIME.

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BBL and I will let you know the breakpoints of the watches and warnings before the advisory comes out . Have a great day :)
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I can't wait to get some rain here in Port Saint Lucie.
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Quoting whs2012:
What time should we have a tropical depression by? Noon you think?


5 pm or earlier. If 98L continues to become better organized it will be renumbered.. if recon finds 97L a TD it will also be renumbered.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
4206. scott39
Does anybody have a fix on what conditions are going to be like in the GOM for 97Ls further developement?
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4204. tkeith
Linkfrom this WV loop it looks to me like the ULL is outpacing 97L and the dry air is diminishing...correct me if I'm wrong please. I learn best from my mistakes :)
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Latest model runs from the NHC

This is not good for the oil in the Gulf will push it toward the coast!!!
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Good Morning! 97L, and 98L!? Whats next? This is starting to get exciting, and we should have Bonnie and Colin when this day ends!
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4200. MahFL
Just imagine the hype if a TS enters the GOM !
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As I said earlier....there will be a new COC forming under the deep convection. The COC seen going into Cuba is meaningless!
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Quoting IKE:
Probably tropical storm watches or warnings later today for southern Florida/Keys....Bahamas....maybe northern Cuba.


dont forget we may also have TS watches in TX today from 98L meaning that we will need to watch 2 places in the US later today.... where do you think weather channel will be if that were to happen
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It looks as if, at the least, some TS watches will go up sometime this morning or early afternoon.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


NHC might just throw out the SAB..


Yeah. They tend to favor the TAFB a bit more anyways.
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4195. aquak9
havoc havoc havoc!

g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide. Good evening Aussie if you're lurking.

Geeez Ike I JUST looked at NHC and it was two oranges. I mean just ten minutes ago it was 40%! Now it's up to 70% again??!!

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY.


couldn't they at least have said, today or tomorrow??

HAVOC!!
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Got to be right sometime StormW. Vorticity was supporting a center to form there that what i was trying to say yesterday and the models will shift back to S FL today. I still think a SE FL to NOLA system. Anyways thanks a lot buddy I appreciate your post as many others do on this blog as you are the real deal Weather Chief.


this system from the beginning reminded me of Erin per wiki:
The track of the center was pushed by an upper-level low, off the coast of Florida, onto a northwesterly track, from its west-northwest track. This change in the track had it cross only the northern part of the Bahamas and caused the storm to affect the central coast of Florida instead of south Florida. The steering currents associated with the upper-level low made Erin sped up to 17 mph, from a previous 6 mph, and diverted Erin up and around the northeastern portion of the upper-level low. As this was happening, the system experienced shearing, that permitted the system to only have slow strengthening. The shear eventually diminished somewhat however, and on the evening of the July 31, Erin was upgraded to a hurricane. The next day, an eye began to become apparent on satellite imagery. Early in the day on August 2, Erin made landfall at Vero Beach, Florida with winds around 85 mph (140 km/h).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_(1995)
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4193. IKE
Probably tropical storm watches or warnings later today for southern Florida/Keys....Bahamas....maybe northern Cuba.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting extreme236:


It does appear a bit broad I agree, but it's impressing me quite a bit...a bit moreso than 97L appearance wise.
Agreed.
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Quoting extreme236:
98L could soon be a TD IMO. SAB at 06z gave 98L a T1.0...but the DT was 2.0, suggesting increasing organization to a TD.


NHC might just throw out the SAB..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
4190. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Those model runs should shift north some.
I dont like it when its on the W side of us!
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Be back in 30 minutes.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's low appears to be a little broad but could however become a tropical depression very soon and a tropical storm thereafter. Apparently it is stationary at the moment, that might give it some more time to tighten up.


It does appear a bit broad I agree, but it's impressing me quite a bit...a bit moreso than 97L appearance wise.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


We usually see that right before a renumber. Once we get a renumber.. we'll have TD3.


Gotcha. Thanks Teddy.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't be surprised to see both 97L and 98L become Bonnie and Colin this afternoon. Also, if 97L does develop a little stronger models might shift to the right a bit as a stronger system tends to move poleward.

Hi MH09. I feel bummed out because a racist blogger insulted Hispanics, and I'm puertorican, Hispanics are in my blood. Nice to see activity has increased in the Atlantic though.
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Quoting IKE:
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Map of the Bahamas to see where the lowest pressure is....

If that is the low pressure area and it is moving towards the WNW, extrapolation would take it to the Florida keys.
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4183. IKE
Quoting MahFL:
I can see the LLC now forming just north of eastern Cuba, seems to be West movement, if thats the case it will make a Cuba landfall.


If it moves WNW from the coordinates they have as the center, it will go north of Cuba.

Looks to head toward the Keys to extreme southern Florida.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Nice blow up of convection near the center. Really coming together. Amazing what a few hours and a visible can do.....
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 97, 2010072212, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD

Link


We usually see that right before a renumber. Once we get a renumber.. we'll have TD3.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting extreme236:


I could see 98L being a TD at 11am if the T-numbers do jump to 2.0.
It's low appears to be a little broad but could however become a tropical depression very soon and a tropical storm thereafter. Apparently it is stationary at the moment, that might give it some more time to tighten up.
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Those T-numbers should be higher, that doesn't make much sense to me...but I will see what the TAFB says.
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4177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/XX/97L
MARK
21.6N/74.1W
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4176. MahFL
I can see the LLC now forming just north of eastern Cuba, seems to be West movement, if thats the case it will make a Cuba landfall.
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Hmmm...

22/1145 UTC 21.6N 73.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
22/1145 UTC 21.0N 94.3W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
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4174. IKE
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Map of the Bahamas to see where the lowest pressure is....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
.
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if they both get upgraded to TD at the same time which would be TD3 and which would be TD4 and then what about names at the same time as well???
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4170. jeebsa
Quoting Abacosurf:


Nah...Pick um off the ground if they fall. Leave the ones up that stay. Put um in your smoothie and have a great day! LOL

Holy Guacamole LOL
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
I wouldn't be surprised to see both 97L and 98L become Bonnie and Colin this afternoon. Also, if 97L does develop a little stronger models might shift to the right a bit as a stronger system tends to move poleward.



However 98L is looking more impressive on satellite right now.

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AL, 97, 2010072212, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD

Link
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4167. tkeith
Quoting StormHype:


Is the cap still on though?
as of right now...yes.
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98L could soon be a TD IMO. SAB at 06z gave 98L a T1.0...but the DT was 2.0, suggesting increasing organization to a TD.
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4163. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting sporteguy03:


Keep there is another blogger with a similar username, I hope he does not get banned because he did not do anything, notice the difference in spelling.
i seen it 03 just an imposter
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



this image is someone else's that was posted on another blog but it shows the center very well


still lots of shear. if the conditions ever got good it would be a strong one. but it looks like they will never be that good.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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