Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Afternoon everyone. We're in storm watch mode at work, the company just started sending my supervisor emails about the possible storm. Should be interesting. If we do get a storm or a hurricane I won't be on here for a while 16 hour days until power is restored :) Intensity guidance does not perform well in favorable conditions.(very conservative most of the time) Should be interesting to see what happens.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm starting to suspect the CIMSS might be over doing the current shear as cloud pattern is not indicative of a sheared system, and the SHIPS analyzed shear at 18 knots IIRC with it going down to 5 knots or so.

There is less mid-level shear right now and because the system is shallow it is fairing pretty well. 18z SHIPS takes the shear down in the short term but keeps it around 15 kts beyond that. I think that's a reasonable estimate. Maybe a little less (10 kts). The dry air and land interaction is going to play the major part with this one.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm remember very clearly. It was a tough night that night, I remember staying up the whole night watching radar and stuff until the power went out. When I woke up there was more damage than I thought...

tell me about it i want to tell john morales where he bought his meteorology certificate he said it was not going to affect any of our areas it was going to go towards west palm beach, and even when it started to head our way he said the same thing IDIOT !!!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm impressed.

Look he has a pinwheel eye!lol

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm remember very clearly. It was a tough night that night, I remember staying up the whole night watching radar and stuff until the power went out. When I woke up there was more damage than I thought...

Although it's possible it could happen again, it's not anything close to probable it will with this one. It's mid-july folks.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
just came from there bring jackets its chilly at night but what a spectacular place i fell in love with yellowstone and the tetons :):):):) Have a great time

Thanks, me and my wife love it.

It'll be our second stay there.

Quoting atmosweather:


There is less mid-level shear right now and because the system is shallow it is fairing pretty well. 18z SHIPS takes the shear down in the short term but keeps it around 15 kts beyond that. I think that's a reasonable estimate. Maybe a little less (10 kts). The dry air and land interaction is going to play the major part with this one.

Land interaction? I hope you aren't talking about the Bahamas.

We'll see how FPL deals with this one.

a monster rain band is forming east of puerto rico.

I'll be joining the tropics chat in a minute.

this blog is going under a RI right now

Wow. This is SERIOUS business here, and u guys are cracking jokes about mangos and shifts.... talk about juvenile....

But, SERIOUSLY....

This is a really entirely iffy situation for the Bahamas. Our last TC-related death happened during Hurricane Noel, when it was still a TS. It brought 25+ inches to some parts of the Bahamas, and one person drowned.

But that was true because Noel progressed along the southern portion of the Bahamas, crossing the Great Bahama Bank and therefore dropping copious amounts of water onto the islands to the east.

So the question on 97L is, left or right? Given the Doc's suggestion that much of the rainfall will take place in the N and NE quadrants of the storm, a track that follows the NOGAPs across Srn FL might end up being worse in some ways than one which takes the centre of the storm up the middle of the archipelago. The only downside of that is that it's likely the storm with higher winds that would go down the middle. However, we mostly made out with the cat1/2 winds of David and Jeanne here in New Providence, and even on the Family Islands there wasn't that much wind damage.

So the thing to decide is which is worse, left or right?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Land interaction? I hope you aren't talking about the Bahamas.

LOL nope...I should have clarified. Cuba and FL.

Thanks for the new update Dr. Masters - it looks like FLorida may be more in the possible track now than earlier - perhaps even a Frances or Jeanne track.

I warned my husband regarding the building of the storm directly in his ship's path from North Florida to Puerto Rico. He said the weather was already getting bad when they left Puerto Rico last Friday. I am glad that ships can change their course to avoid storms...

Station in the SE tip of DR is reporting a WSW wind.

Quoting EricSFL:
We'll see how FPL deals with this one.

yeah they will say because of the storm rates will increase and gas is another one prices are going to skyrocket

Quoting Jeff9641:


Yes Miami, that is what we were talking about. Doc raised the chances of a hurricane impacting SE FL from 10 to 30 percent.

Make sense. A minimal (75mph) hurricane making landfall will keep on getting more likely as long as it continues to organize and then intensify.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
tell me about it i want to tell john morales where he bought his meteorology certificate he said it was not going to affect any of our areas it was going to go towards west palm beach, and even when it started to head our way he said the same thing IDIOT !!!

the only local channel that covered it PERFECTLY was CBS4..

They were talking about the JOG to the south and everything, while the other news channels were ignoring it, heck half the spanish population (out of my a$$ estimate) thought it was going to be a bit of wind and a bit of rain, not the monster HURRICANE that it was. Some guy in the neighberhood said "so this is the strongest a hurricane can be right, a cateogry 1" and then I said "No.. this is the weakest.. a hurricane can be.." and he looked at me and stared.. at the jaw dropping destruction miami witnessed with Katrina.

Analog system for 97L IMO.

Hurricane Erin 1995

Quoting whs2012:
Models shifted WAY to the west, what did I tell you! :P lol. Same then with Alex and TD #2.

link please back it up

thanks for explaining seflhurricane

if 97L makes land fall in FL keys then it wont have march land at all be come the FL keys has 90% of round a round it with out march land

97L will most likely stay away from Southern Texas and Mexico because the upper level low in the BOC should steer it (if 97L even makes it this far west) northwest, away form Mexico.

Quoting leo305:


the only local channel that covered it PERFECTLY was CBS4..

They were talking about the JOG to the south and everything, while the other news channels were ignoring it, heck half the spanish population (out of my a$$ estimate) thought it was going to be a bit of wind and a bit of rain, not the monster HURRICANE that it was. Some guy in the neighberhood said "so this is the strongest a hurricane can be right, a cateogry 1" and then I said "No.. this is the weakest.. a hurricane can be.." and he looked at me and stared.. at the jaw dropping destruction miami witnessed with Katrina.

no one will ever be able to replace bryan norcross he was the best top notch the hurricane community has ever had in my opinion

Quoting leelee75k:
thanks for explaining seflhurricane

very welcome

Quoting Seflhurricane:
tell me about it i want to tell john morales where he bought his meteorology certificate he said it was not going to affect any of our areas it was going to go towards west palm beach, and even when it started to head our way he said the same thing IDIOT !!!

I was pretty much glued to Bryan Norcross on WFOR the entire evening and night (until we lost power for good). No doubt it was one of the longest nights of my life...

Quoting whs2012:
SeflHurricane,

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_model.html

thanks

Quoting Seflhurricane:
no one will ever be able to replace bryan norcross he was the best top notch the hurricane community has ever had in my opinion

I agree, and mr.Brenard is great too, heck most of the CBS4 staff is amazing

97L Will make a north easternly turn & hit the carolinas as a CAT 3 at the least.

Cant wait to see what happens at Dmax tonight. This thing is getting better organized by the hour. TD by morning???

Quoting Seflhurricane:
yeah they will say because of the storm rates will increase and gas is another one prices are going to skyrocket

I lost power in western Miami-Dade even before Katrina made landfall. lol

So if the chances are 30% FL and 20% GOM, does that mean the expectation is for it to basically travel up FL or diminish enough not to redevelop when it comes out on the east side?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Analog system for 97L IMO.

Hurricane Erin 1995

Very possible

Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
97L Will make a north easternly turn & hit the carolinas as a CAT 3 at the least.

Poof. Thanks for the laugh though.

Quoting Tazmanian:
if 97L makes land fall in FL keys then it wont have march land at all be come the FL keys has 90% of round a round it with out march land

DRUGZ?

Quoting leo305:


I agree, and mr.Brenard is great too, heck most of the CBS4 staff is amazing

david is also good trained by brian but max mayfield is also very good

Greetings all! I see the models aren't looking any better for Florida than they did this morning, and the system is looking more like a tropical depression. I suppose I should start thinking about preparing.

Quoting Jeff9641:


GFDL thinks it may stay over FL and never reach the gulf. I think a Jeanne/Frances track is becoming a solid bet now.

A landfall further south than both is more likely. I also doubt that it will stay overland.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. This is SERIOUS business here, and u guys are cracking jokes about mangos and shifts.... talk about juvenile....

But, SERIOUSLY....

This is a really entirely iffy situation for the Bahamas. Our last TC-related death happened during Hurricane Noel, when it was still a TS. It brought 25+ inches to some parts of the Bahamas, and one person drowned.

But that was true because Noel progressed along the southern portion of the Bahamas, crossing the Great Bahama Bank and therefore dropping copious amounts of water onto the islands to the east.

So the question on 97L is, left or right? Given the Doc's suggestion that much of the rainfall will take place in the N and NE quadrants of the storm, a track that follows the NOGAPs across Srn FL might end up being worse in some ways than one which takes the centre of the storm up the middle of the archipelago. The only downside of that is that it's likely the storm with higher winds that would go down the middle. However, we mostly made out with the cat1/2 winds of David and Jeanne here in New Providence, and even on the Family Islands there wasn't that much wind damage.

So the thing to decide is which is worse, left or right?

Baha My gut feeling is still there. prepare for the worse is the best thing to do in my opinion.Nothing like being prepared

Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
97L Will make a north easternly turn & hit the carolinas as a CAT 3 at the least.

wishcaster



this is not going too the carolinas no mode runs shows it its FL and the gulf that needs too watch

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Analog system for 97L IMO.

Hurricane Erin 1995

I like this analog a lot better than all the "K" talk. It's rather nerve wracking to have 97L compared to Katrina in any way at all as long as so many models still show tracks west of the FL Big Bend. I get that the comparisons are for South Florida rather than the second landfall (assuming 97L doesn't go through the straits)... but it's still setting my stomach on edge to have that name invoked. LOL.

Quoting weatherwart:
Greetings all! I see the models aren't looking any better for Florida than they did this morning, and the system is looking more like a tropical depression. I suppose I should start thinking about preparing.

Nah...Not yet.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
no one will ever be able to replace bryan norcross he was the best top notch the hurricane community has ever had in my opinion

I don't know Don Noe from 10 was pretty good!

Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
97L Will make a north easternly turn & hit the carolinas as a CAT 3 at the least.

you need some sleep you are out of it !!!!!!!

Quoting Tazmanian:
can some one post the 2 from this AM thanks

Here.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 5
INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.