97L a threat to become a tropical depression on Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the east coast of Puerto Rico has become more organized overnight and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day (Figure 1), and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which may allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms, but no signs of a surface circulation, no low-level spiral banding, and no upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico, with no signs of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L this afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. We do have several models developing 97L into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The GFS and HWRF both take 97L to tropical storm status over the Bahamas by Thursday, with the storm then tracking over South Florida on Friday and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The NOGAPS is similar, but portrays a weaker system. All of these models foresee a threat to the oil spill region by Saturday night or Sunday, with the storm making a second landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana. One factor potentially aiding the storm will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over the next 4 - 5 days, and I believe the primary detriment to development of 97L over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 60% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas, and I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 10%. There is a better chance that 97L could attain hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps 20%. These probabilities will depend heavily upon how long 97L (or Bonnie) spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

Time to cut the forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season?
Here are the number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecast groups in their late May or early June forecasts:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique (Note: TSR increased their numbers to 19.1, 10.4, and 4.8 with their July 6 forecast)
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

The group forecasting the lowest activity was the Florida State University group led by Dr. Tim LaRow. They use a new dynamical forecast model called COAPS, which is funded by a 5-year, $6.2 million grant from NOAA. This year's June forecast by the COAPS model called for 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes. However, Dr. LaRow emailed me yesterday to say that the COAPS model is now calling for reduced activity. Using the state of the atmosphere and ocean as of July 15, a new run of the COAPS model was performed over the weekend. The new forecast is now calling for two fewer hurricanes--a total of 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes (including Alex.) The COAPS model generated an "ensemble" of five different forecasts, done by varying the initial sea surface temperatures by a few percent at the beginning of the model run. These five forecasts came up with a range of 12 - 16 named storms (including Alex), and 7 - 10 hurricanes. It will be interesting to see when CSU issues its August 4 forecast if they also cut their numbers. With only one named storm (Alex) thus far this year, it's getting pretty hard to have a season with 19 or 20 named storms. Only four hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as nineteen named storms. These four seasons--1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005--all had at least three named storms by July 20.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


In 60 hours? Do you think that is a bit too fast?

the water its near is hotter then meghan fox
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Link


Thanks Stormchaser.
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Latest 18Z/12Z Models

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I hope is not what Dan Gilbert meant as a curse for Miami getting LeBron.
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1115. patrikdude2 6:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?

I thought so too.. If the storm were to develop it would be around the Center Of Circulation North of Dominican republic.
It makes sense
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z SHIPS taking 97L through south Florida as a category 1 hurricane.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 12, 203N, 701W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 24, 212N, 720W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 36, 221N, 741W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 48, 235N, 766W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 60, 248N, 789W, 64, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 72, 258N, 810W, 67, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 84, 268N, 827W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 96, 278N, 839W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 108, 293N, 855W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 120, 312N, 871W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


In 60 hours? Do you think that is a bit too fast?
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Well, lets hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Back to lurking...my dog just ate my nutty buddy while i was typing. Arrrgh!
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?
I think what you see is the persisting mid level circulation interacting with land,but it seems that the new developing COC at north of Punta Cana have some reflection at the surface, thus could become the dominant COC.
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1129. Drakoen
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Storm, Drak

What are the coordinates roughly for the circulation center?


19.5N 68.2W
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Quoting ElConando:
For those on the East coast of Florida by around this time tomorrow it would be wise to check if you are in an evac zone that calls for voluntary evacuations in an event of a Cat 1 if you were not aware already. Local news in your area would likely show you if you are in an evac zone as well.

Question: Anyone know of any areas that are evac zones even in TS's?



Emergency managers are advised to assume 1 category up from what's forecasted, so probably barrier islands...

Either way, the sefla's will be busy tomorrow (I know I will).
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18z SHIPS taking 97L through south Florida as a category 1 hurricane.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 12, 203N, 701W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 24, 212N, 720W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 36, 221N, 741W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 48, 235N, 766W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 60, 248N, 789W, 64, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 72, 258N, 810W, 67, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 84, 268N, 827W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 96, 278N, 839W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 108, 293N, 855W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 120, 312N, 871W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I also felt that way about the dry air on my latest blog post too. I am getting mixed messages from 97L.

1. Great banding features and mid-level rotation is displaced to the NE of the wave axis. Yeah it looks organized, but the surface wave axis isn't aligned with the mid-level rotation. Perhaps convection will touch off a surface low NE of the wave axis (instead of on the wave axis) as it matures the warm core mid-level spin. The wave axis itself will then continue uneventfully westward.

2. Dry air and some southwesterly shear from the ULL to its north may be a problem for 97L

3. And I thought land interaction with Hispaniola would also be a problem for 97L because the wave axis is already over Hispaniola. But I guess if the convection is developing a surface low NE of Hispaniola to the NE of the wave axis, then maybe that's whats happening.

97L is complex indeed, lets see what happens.


Couldn't have said it better myself. In fact, I'm a little humbled. Upper level support for 97L is a hair less than favorable...to say the least. Wind shear will increase (I think), but water temps will increase also. Eastern atmospheric drift will continue to propel all storms and waves to the west and we will just have to watch them (as you said). 97L is worth watching but it's not worth sending a balloon up in the eye..........yet
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Quoting ElConando:
For those on the East coast of Florida by around this time tomorrow it would be wise to check if you are in an evac zone that calls for voluntary evacuations in an event of a Cat 1 if you were not aware already. Local news in your area would likely show you if you are in an evac zone as well.

Question: Anyone know of any areas that are evac zones even in TS's?



i know many, if not most, places in fla on the beaches have one bridge to leave on. so the problem is when you are told to leave, the order has to be given to allow enough time for all the beach people to get across the relatively narrow bridge. and in walton county, the hwy 331 bridge which is an evacuation route north, closes down at 40 mph winds. so the beach people have to get out early before the winds get up to 40 mph.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
Quoting muddertracker:
But where is it taking its talents?
South Beach.
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1122. unf97
NWS Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL

Long Term (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)


MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
IN ANY CASE...IF THE WAVE REMAINS INTACT...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS ALWAYS...THE TRACK AND TIMING WILL BE FINE
TUNED AS WE GET NEARER TO THE EVENT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND POPS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH.

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12z EURO weak system TX/LA border @ 108h
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?


Hispaniola has had a history of tricking people on this site with thinking they are seeing another circulation forming. It is probably nothing.
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18z Official still bringing it through south Florida, but this time as a strong tropical storm.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 12, 203N, 702W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 24, 212N, 721W, 37, 0, , 34, NEQ, 27, 17, 10, 27,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 36, 222N, 743W, 42, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 24, 24, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 48, 234N, 766W, 47, 0, , 34, NEQ, 45, 32, 32, 45,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 60, 246N, 789W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 52, 35, 37, 52,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 60, 246N, 789W, 51, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 0, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 72, 257N, 809W, 53, 0, , 34, NEQ, 56, 36, 39, 56,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 72, 257N, 809W, 53, 0, , 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 84, 267N, 826W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 96, 280N, 841W, 52, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 108, 294N, 857W, 57, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 120, 311N, 871W, 65, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1118. xcool
12 Z EURO
TX/LA Border
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Crapcaster!

just stating what the data says im in south florida and not liking what i see
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woot.. we got a mention.. err.. Dr did lol

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?
I thought so too.. If the storm were to develop it would be around the Center Of Circulation North of Dominican republic.
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Quoting cheezemm:
It's the Lebronocane!
But where is it taking its talents?
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Quoting mikatnight:


Got a link for that graphic? Tryin' to get one to work on my phone...

Link
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Quoting Baybuddy:
Is there no chance 97 will recurve out to fishville?


Always a chance however, very small in this case. The steering reasoning should remain unchanged. Variables being where the LLC finds it's final resting point and how strong it gets.
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Trust me 97L is being fed heat and moisture right up the Virgin Passage and over me on the west end of STT. It is POURING as the moist air come over Crown mountain and dumps on me.... Looks like it will keep doing so until it goes far enough north to start a circulation that is not interfered with by Puerto Rico..
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1110. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100720 1800 100721 0600 100721 1800 100722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 68.2W 20.1N 71.1W 20.6N 73.7W 20.6N 75.9W
BAMD 19.5N 68.2W 20.1N 70.0W 20.7N 71.9W 21.6N 73.8W
BAMM 19.5N 68.2W 20.0N 70.3W 20.6N 72.4W 21.1N 74.1W
LBAR 19.5N 68.2W 19.9N 70.4W 20.6N 73.0W 21.3N 75.5W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100722 1800 100723 1800 100724 1800 100725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 77.6W 22.2N 80.3W 23.8N 83.0W 25.0N 85.6W
BAMD 22.6N 75.7W 24.5N 80.1W 26.1N 85.0W 27.4N 89.3W
BAMM 22.0N 75.8W 23.8N 79.0W 25.1N 83.0W 26.1N 86.6W
LBAR 22.2N 78.0W 24.6N 83.1W 27.2N 86.9W 30.0N 88.6W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 69KTS 68KTS
DSHP 61KTS 54KTS 54KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 68.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 66.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 64.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
ELCanado you are jumping the gun a little in MHO.


Understandable but I'm just recommending that people see if they are in an area that has been mandated for a voluntary evacuation in the event of category 1 Hurricane. Nothing more. Sorry if I was coming off in a alarming manner.
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97L 18Z SHIPS Text, track from OFCI.
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Storm, Drak

What are the coordinates roughly for the circulation center?
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Quoting cheezemm:
It's the Lebronocane!

happy lebronica lol did any of u see the dan labate video
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Didnt expect the models to be pointing this at me when I got back...


Also didnt expect to see it at 60%


Got a link for that graphic? Tryin' to get one to work on my phone...
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1102. Drakoen
TAFB

DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. BANDING APPEARS MOR
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
I'm just NOT seeing this thing forming at LLC... Like I said yesterday, Wednesday Evening, we may a TD (or maybe a TS) but not today...
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
Quoting FLdewey:


Some counties (Like Brevard) will do an evac of low lying areas and manufactured homes for some tropical storms. If you were in a mandatory evac area for a cat 1 I would assume it would be for flood concerns or manufactured homes.

Except for the flood threat I think the "mandatory" evacuations for cat 1's are overblown.


not that i feel its going to be necessary this time around, but I have moved within a mile from the beach since our last cane.. Can anyone point me to an evac map of palm beach count?
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It's the Lebronocane!
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Dvorak from TAFB 1.5


AL 97 201007201745 DVTS 1980N 6750W TAFB 1515 /////
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BTW, what is the record # of posts?
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TAFB gave 97L a T1.5
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Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?
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Is there no chance 97 will recurve out to fishville?
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Are models still showing this system hitting S. Fl as a TS?
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Good afternoon to all.
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Hello all
I see we now have a possible TD in the making. I am here in Miami and don't like what I see.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Sorry, Friday morning.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Day 3




Day 5




Oil for everyone, man that's a bad track.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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