Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 134 - 84

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

Quoting StormW:


I think once the A/B ridge weakens, sst's recover, we're gonna see a flurry of activity from the Cape Verde area. One thing I've noticed from experience, the "peak" of the season is not always the 10th of Sep. That date is an average. I've seen it peak by the 5th of Sep, and as late as the 21st of Sep. Another thing I've noticed through past seasons, there is actually only about a 2-3 week time frame, when conditions for Cape Verde storms is extremely favorable...generally in the form of a large upper level anticyclone over much of the CATL/EATL.


and it seems with climate change peak could come earlier? hasnt it been warmer than usual ? just my ignernt idle speculation. because now seems almost as hot as it used to be in august.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

NEW ORLEANS what might be the result if a cat 4 makes a direct hit on new orleans?


You got your answer in 2005...no,. it wasn't a direct hit and no it wasn't a CAT 4 but why would you ask that question when Katrina flooded 80% of the city? Do you think that a CAT 4 would be better or worse than that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L coming into "Rapid-Scan" view, convection continues to wane.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:
Here's what dust looks like:


that's incredible!! The wave that came off yesterday seems pretty far south of that, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
This just in Hiedi Klum says the Season is a bust.


Now this just goes to prove that you cannot put all your trust in the MODELS.

This is just my way of saying The models do better with predicting storm movement and intensity. They are not to be trusted with predicting storm formation.
LOL... Storm is always encouraging us to develop better realtime forecasting skills....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
128. skook
Quoting btwntx08:
the models show signs of development not no development in the next 7 days



What signs.....?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the steering layers, 97L may not even touch Texas, sorry.. just going by the pattern steering, but in a few days that may change, but I see how the SHIPS could be right, if steering doesn't change, it heads to Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
This just in Hiedi Klum says the Season is a bust.


Now this just goes to prove that you cannot put all your trust in the MODELS.

This is just my way of saying The models do better with predicting storm movement and intensity. They are not to be trusted with predicting storm formation.

who is she?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:



None of the reliable models are predicting development over the next seven days.


oops. sorry conan, i missed that;) thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This just in Hiedi Klum says the Season is a bust.


Now this just goes to prove that you cannot put all your trust in the MODELS.

This is just my way of saying The models do better with predicting storm movement and intensity. They are not to be trusted with predicting storm formation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F)

111.2 degrees F??!! that's nothing...try going to Yuma, AZ for the opening of dove season on Labor Day weekend....120+...now that's hot....


The point is that the heat is far in excess of the usual, and what people are used to. I'm from the UK, and the record here is about 38°C - so to me 44°C sounds terrifying :)

Just because you go somewhere that is routinely hotter doesn't make this less important, or less problematic. When Europe had the big heatwave in 2003, temperatures were significantly lower than the 44°C mark, but there were tens of thousands of deaths related to it - because people don't know how to cope with that heat, and buildings aren't constructed to manage it right...

Hope for the Russian's sake it cools down out there soon -- pretty horrendous at the moment, by the sound of it :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:
ok, i've never yelled on the blog, but i have errands to run and i want an answer

DO THE MODELS DO ANYTHING WITH THE WAVE NEAR JAMAICA? IF SO, WHAT?



Ahhh, the first poof of the day...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
99. DestinJeff 8:15 AM PDT on July 19, 2010
Quoting Holguin:
of course its wanning, stormw was right, it'll die out, very soon, good call, seniro chief


when in doubt: comma.

Comma Chameleon




hahahahahahahahahahahahaha! instant classic!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
truecajun I answered your question on post 74 and Dr. Masters answered it in his blog post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Chicklet, I was yacking about the area just swest of Jamaica. Shear looks really favorable.


Oh, I see. (mystery solved: I had zoomed in on 97L) Caribbean - Visible Loop

Looks like a Goldfish
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok, i've never yelled on the blog, but i have errands to run and i want an answer

DO THE MODELS DO ANYTHING WITH THE WAVE NEAR JAMAICA? IF SO, WHAT?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L is elogated at the surface (850mb):



but shows much the same with a different orientation at the mid levels (700mb):



There is a much more defined circulation at 500mb:



From a vorticity standpoint, a rather disorganized feature currently
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
108. Ighuc
There was a record high here in Denver last Saturday and the potential for another today. Considering the amount of times we have breached the 100 degree threshold over the last 150 years or so, this is quite remarkable!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F)

111.2 degrees F??!! that's nothing...try going to Yuma, AZ for the opening of dove season on Labor Day weekend....120+...now that's hot....


That's dry heat come to Miami when its 95 degrees at 90% Humidity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

Yes 97L looks like it's starting to grow legs.
Look at the shear, though CIMSS



Chicklet, I was yacking about the area just swest of Jamaica. Shear looks really favorable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting StormW:


Coincides with this:


And this:















Much better for the basin. The Caribbean and the GOM could get plenty of action. Is it possible that many of the storms this season will not originate from Africa?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


......but comparing this to Rita (2005) is not really smart because Rita was already a strong TS in the Bahamas compared to a possible disturbance to TD with 97L.
I'd only compare this to Rita in terms of track, i.e. across the Srn Bahamas. I don't think other things are equal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The one to watch is the disturbance in the Caribbean. 97L will look putrid for days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

NEW ORLEANS what might be the result if a cat 4 makes a direct hit on new orleans?
what kind of question is that ?????????????????????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
are the models doing anything with the caribbean wave?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
High temps an unanticipated and unmodeled consequence of the thermosphere's contraction.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
never mind
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93. 7544
if the blob 97l holds on the modeles will go further north look how its all spread out with the conv. this hour stay tuned
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
Quoting moonlightcowboy: (Re: 97L) Convection building around the area of rotation. Sorry, these are signs of organization, imo, but I'm no met. Low shear, too, over warm, deep waters.
Yes 97L looks like it's starting to grow legs.
Look at the shear, though CIMSS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Re-post from previous blog.
Watching 97L and the Caribbean

Also, the downward pulse prediction has significantly backed off. Was showing yesterday a huge area of dark red in the Atlantic, now it barley shows any downward pulse at all and increased MJO off Africa.



This is not surprising at all. The worst will most likely be neutral conditions from hear on out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


The fake granny handle does... along with "oh my" and "laws a mercy" , etc, etc, ;-)


i say great balls of fire too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Update w/ Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F)

111.2 degrees F??!! that's nothing...try going to Yuma, AZ for the opening of dove season on Labor Day weekend....120+...now that's hot....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 134 - 84

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast