Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

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A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Weather 456 blog,
very interesting
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ECMWF 12z 72 hours has 97L at 75W approaching southern Florida and the Florida straights as a sharply inverted tropical wave.

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Tagging an Invest

Posted by: Weather456, 10:08 AM GMT on July 19, 2010
An upper low over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to interact with a tropical wave now along 88W and south of 27N to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area from the Yucatan Peninsula, across Western Cuba and over the Florida Peninsula. This feature remains poorly organized and shows no signs of development as it head off towards the west-northwest. This is likely due to the marginal shear induced by the adjacent upper level circulation and because the upper low should move west in tandem with the lower level wave, I suspect little development from this feature in the near term. I continue to foresee a low chance of development. In the meantime, moisture will continue to spread across the aforementioned areas and the wave is expected to reach the Western Gulf of Mexico in about 2-3 days.


Figure 1. Water vapor imagery of the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico and Northern Central America depicting the first feature mentioned. The circular area of vapor over the central Gulf of Mexico is the upper low with the tropical wave on the right flank.

A tropical wave is located 79W, south of 22N, moving off towards the west. Shortwave infrared imagery revealed though thunderstorms have waned, they are more concentrated around a mid-level circulation at 16.8N-79.2W. This mid-level circulation can be clearly seen on close-up shortwave infrared image. Surface observations, however, indicate that there appears to be no surface circulation as yet. This feature continues to be located under a favourable upper ridge so I suspect that the mid-level circulation may slowly build towards the surface. I suspect this feature will move off towards the west, maybe a little north of due west and reach the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday or Wednesday. I will give this area a moderate chance of being tagged an invest and show some signs of development over the next few days. Regardless of development, showers and thunderstorms are going to spread across Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and the Caymans today.

A third tropical wave is along 65W, continue to interact with an elongated TUTT cell to produce widespread deep convection north of the Islands. Currently, the feature remains disorganized due to the southwesterly upper flow induced by the nearby upper level circulation. However, the wave should be located near the Southeastern Bahamas in about 3-4 days in an environment much more favourable for development under a ridge and adjacent to the TUTT cell, which is not expected to move much. I suspect this is where the feature will have to be watched the most. I will continue to give this area a low-moderate chance of development but a higher chance of being tagged an invest.


Figure 2. Shortwave infrared imagery of the Caribbean and southwest North Atlantic depicting the second and third features mentioned. On the left, we can clearly see a mid-level circulation evident from the cloud patterns and is more evident once looped. To the right is the forth wave interacting with the TUTT.

An Eastern Atlantic tropical wave, though possessing a well-define circulation, is entrenched in a layer of African dust and is void of any deep convection. No development expected in the meantime, but the wave will be watched as it heads off towards the west-northwest.

A very large African wave is near 17E and south of 22N. Infrared images show a large, organize, virgours mesoscale convection system associated with this wave, giving it the appearance of a tropical storm over land. The ECMWF thinks the feature will emerge with a surface circulation in about 1 week.


Figure 3. Visible image of the Eastern Atlantic showing the very dry stable environment that the wave is embedded in. There are a number of ways to assess the stability of the environment ahead such as the cloud-type, which in this case - stratocumulus. Stratocumulus are stable environment clouds and tropical disturbances moving into such a cloud deck will experience negative impacts on the development of deep convection.


Figure 4. Infrared image over Eastern Africa showing a strong tropical wave accompanied by a vigorous MCS.

Weather456
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97L loop looks a Blue Marlin jumping out of the water
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557. DestinJeff 11:40 AM PDT on July 19, 2010
So long everyone. I am going to stop on the way home and get a case of "Sense of Humor" to dispense later on the blog.

Think one case will be enough?


no...
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I'm out for a while. Ya'll have fun and play nice and save a little of the tropical wx drama for when I get back.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23090
Quoting jurakantaino:
In the past few days here in the west of the islande it feels like we are getting one tropical storm after another due to the strong wind, damages injuries, and torrential rain, now we are heading to our third round with 97L, keeping and eyes with that big blob at 30w 2N, moving NW....

There was a waterspout over the city of Mayaguez, PR a few days ago, I'm more concerned about the storms that are coming later in the season
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Quoting Tazmanian:




hey look i seee a eye
Looks like the DRATER is back
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Quoting Chicklit:
Here is the Puerto Rico Satelllite page.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html
Looks to be a rough night for PR and Hispaniola.
In the past few days here in the west of the islande it feels like we are getting one tropical storm after another due to the strong wind, damages injuries, and torrential rain, now we are heading to our third round with 97L, keeping and eyes with that big blob at 30w 2N, moving NW....
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Quoting Tazmanian:




hey look i seee a eye
LOL.... Where? Where???
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23090
Oh yeah! Invest 97 can just go on its merry way. Don't need any more of that rain or light show. Bring on the next unnamed unnumbered invest or whatever. Guess I'm all charged up by wandering ions or something.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
Quoting FLdewey:


I have a pallet jack you can borrow.


roflmao
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

lol, i still have power, no rain yet!! i think it will soon

Do you have miami windows ?
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Quoting IKE:
48hr. 12Z ECMWF....

97L is north of Hispaniola in that image as you can see obvious kinks in the isobars.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
97L=TD north of haiti in 48hrs and 98l forming off hondurus north coast in the next 24-48hrs...
R U suggesting proto-98L will trail 97L into the GOM?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23090
Quoting DestinJeff:
I have a cat named Hebert. The kids call his bathroom "Hebert's Box"


lol ok now that was funny
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8090
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

ROFL!! I think my windows are stuck with CrazyGlue or somethin', cause 2004's Jeane didn't do anything to them!
LOL!
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sailing, what r ur conditions?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23090
7N/31W looking interesting, convection maintaining itself now for nearly 24 hours, could be the next yellow circle, I think this one has a decent shot to get a name.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Dewey, funny. Not.

Hmmm. Looks like 97L has 1 foot poised to step all over the T&C and SE Bahamas. Also note spread of convection to DR already...





hey look i seee a eye
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554. IKE
48hr. 12Z ECMWF....

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97L=TD north of haiti in 48hrs and 98l forming off hondurus north coast in the next 24-48hrs...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO! Stay safe, them windows aren't too sturdy!

ROFL!! I think my windows are stuck with CrazyGlue or somethin', cause 2004's Jeane didn't do anything to them!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I have a cat named Hebert. The kids call his bathroom "Hebert's Box"
I have a cat in the hat
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I guess I'm the only puerto rican blogger that got rain then...Unless others lost power.

lol, i still have power, no rain yet!! i think it will soon
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Quoting sailingallover:

The shear that is the only thing stopping 97L from development is also not a given. If the ULL moves north(which it was forecast to do 3 days ago)or weakens and shear drops 5-10knots you can have very rapid development over 24 hours.
you can make predictions that is won't develop all you want but it is silly when a potential system is on the cusp like 97L.. 10knots less of wind shear, especially if it stays south, is probably around a 20% possibility. Please don't not look at the convection being sheared north and tell me 97L is going north. The energy off the wave is going WNW. So 20% is a good call although I would put it at 30% in 48 given the way the convection keeps firing over PR and it is prepping the atmosphere to it's NW.
I agree there.
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Second day in a row that this blog turns pathetic. I seriously hope that Dr. Masters does not read over these comments because it would be a near certainty that he will shut down the ability to leave comments. Embarrassing.
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Quoting sailingallover:

The shear that is the only thing stopping 97L from development is also not a given. If the ULL moves north(which it was forecast to do 3 days ago)or weakens and shear drops 5-10knots you can have very rapid development over 24 hours.
you can make predictions that is won't develop all you want but it is silly when a potential system is on the cusp like 97L.. 10knots less of wind shear, especially if it stays south, is probably around a 20% possibility. Please don't not look at the convection being sheared north and tell me 97L is going north. The energy off the wave is going WNW. So 20% is a good call although I would put it at 30% in 48 given the way the convection keeps firing over PR and it is prepping the atmosphere to its NW.
This all sounds logical to me. 97L seems poised to take advantage of whatever good circumstances come into play. If this doesn't get at least to TS status at some point, I'd be very surprised; even without the name, it's likely to bring some hefty rains along with it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23090
97 looking more disorganized this afternoon.
Does that mean the forecast models will change next update?
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529. Quoting sailingallover 6:30 PM GMT on July 19, 2010The shear that is the only thing stopping 97L from development is also not a given. If the ULL moves north(which it was forecast to do 3 days ago)or weakens and shear drops 5-10knots you can have very rapid development over 24 hours.
you can make predictions that is won't develop all you want but it is silly when a potential system is on the cusp like 97L..


Agree. This one's got potential; it's already starting to make a ruckus.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK...I'm just an 11 year-old weather fanatic reporting conditions outside my bedroom window.
LMAO! Stay safe, them windows aren't too sturdy!
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Not too bad here in Puerto Rico, I'm very close to the east coast, nothing big really going on here, wind is almost calm, but's very dark, like if it were 5 or 6 am. There are many storm right now off shore and we are under a flash flood watch till tommorrow.

I guess I'm the only puerto rican blogger that got rain then...Unless others lost power.
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Good afternoon fellow weather geeks! Rainy in Grand Cayman - and the rain is welcome! Cooled off quite nicely.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK...I'm just an 11 year-old weather fanatic reporting conditions outside my bedroom window.

rofl!!!
Glad to have an eye witness as I think the busy season has begun.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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