Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

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A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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1634. IKE
1-1-0 continues.

Knocks on the NHC should begin in 5....4.....3....2....1....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Moving a bit too fast for anything to consolidate

It's been consolidating just north of PR for the last 4 hours...

It is rare that we get to have something with such potential right near a NWS office, radar etc
AT 537 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 37 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 47 NM NORTH OF CABO SAN JUAN TO 35 NM NORTH OF CABO SAN
JUAN...MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1632. 7544
well they added the se bahamas on this update maybe the next two they will add so fla
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20% as expected for 97L, no surface low yet.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


http://www.december212012.com/CDC.htm

countdown to doom and be merry!!


What is suppose to happen 12~21~12? just wondering
sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


here we go the NHC being conservative and i am very surprised they did not mention the wave near the cape verdes looks really good
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Caribbean AOI dropped and Antilles wave remains the same.. LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The wave in the Caribbean also should be upped from a near 0% chance to 20%.
I'm surprised that it even wasn't mentioned considering that it has a well-defined mid-level circulation.
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now about the %30 you where saying
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Quoting Tazmanian:



re ported for off key photo plzs watch what you post


the Admin are watching your evere move and i this have too be Admin little helper


Yes but thats off TROPic al

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Bleh--no mention of the blob near 7n. 20% for 97l.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Baha
...generally access internet via DSL, but I'm not sure how PWS data transmission would affect that.


If you have DSL and WiFi already you are steps ahead.
Do you have a battery/UPS to keep the DSL box and Wireless router alive when power goes off?

The "wireless" link with a PWS would be from the display up to the anemometer on the roof, and it would not interfere with WiFi.


edit add: I LIKE

LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS..
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
Quoting 7544:
dont think anything will change for97l on the two but we shall see
still disorganized but slowly getting better finally has a center to focus on it did not have one earlier
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1620. Drakoen
.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening All.

I've been tracking this area since this morning. It's 97L's best shot at establishing a surface low tonight / tomorrow morning.



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The wave in the Caribbean also should be upped from a near 0% chance to 20%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1616. 7544
dont think anything will change for97l on the two but we shall see
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
I found this great image of Hurricane Jean from back in 2004 online.

Just a friendly reminder for the folks in florida to be vigilant
in ther storm preparations this year.

hurricane frances would also be a good one it made landfall in the exact same area
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Quoting Drakoen:


Moving a bit too fast for anything to consolidate
Thanks. Weather looking nasty in Cayman again. Raining and very overcast.
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1613. IKE
F5....F5...F5.....F5......

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I found this great image of Hurricane Jean from back in 2004 online.

Just a friendly reminder for the folks in Florida to be vigilant
in their storm preparations this year.

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people must be pushing the refresh button on the NHC Website like crazy for the TWO
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make it come out now make it come out now
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Quoting Baybuddy:


Thats Great! Hope he and the baby are well...However, if Weather Underground had wanted SJ to have a baby, they would have issued him one.


His site is still up and is, among other things, a handy source of links:

Stormjunkie Quick Link Page
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1262
Quoting jlp09550:



heh that looks like a TD
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Anybody post this yet?
Windsat from a few hours ago 7N 33W is close to being a TD if that trough cleans up into a LLC
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Long-range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico shows a well-defined mid-level circulation, based solely on this chances in the next TWO should be upped to moderate (30%).
maybe 40 % but close enough
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TWO should be out within the next 30 MIN
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look out sports fans
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Long-range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico shows a well-defined mid-level circulation, based solely on this chances in the next TWO should be upped to moderate (30%).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1599. Drakoen
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Do you think there is much chance for something to develop here ?


Moving a bit too fast for anything to consolidate
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Baha

...getting a PWS the next time I am in the US. I prolly can find an older laptop which I can dedicate to data transmission if I dig around. What do u think?

I think it is a good idea to get a Weather Station. However, I find that putting the data live onto the internet involves more time and resources than one expects.
a. Separate (or router shared) internet connection,
b. b/u power for another pc, PWS, and "modem/router" etc.,
c. plus mounting and routing wires.

I would suggest you get the WX station and maintain it for a season as a beginning.

CRS
TYVM for the advice, CRS. I'm looking now at how much one would cost. Apparently there are wireless ones, but I'm still not sure how that would work here. Plus I generally access internet via DSL, but I'm not sure how PWS data transmission would affect that. I will look around on the net b4 I make a final decision.

Quoting Baybuddy:
What ever became of stormjunkie?
Ever since he became StormDad, he hasn't blogged so much... not that I blame him; those first few years r some of the best.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...He became a Father.


Thats Great! Hope he and the baby are well...However, if Weather Underground had wanted SJ to have a baby, they would have issued him one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
RAMSDIS center fix on the Caribbean AOI, looks like a well defined mid level circulation.
Do you think there is much chance for something to develop here ?
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Will there be a 18Z run GFDL n HWRF on 97L tonite?? I didnt see a 12Z run today??
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1383
1594. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
According to radar, a mid-level circulation north of Puerto Rico seems to be consolidating
and becoming dominant. Anyone agree with me?
Center mark 19.1, 65.6 after looking at local radar together with thisLink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
i need a new F5 key


get them ready
Taz, I found a good slap against the side gets it.....ohh nevermind that's to refresh the wife....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Evening all. Hope you're all doing well. I spent the day giving in to my worst guilty pleasure. There was a marathon of "Jersylicious" on. Hmmmm? some similarities to us southern girls. :) Lol So I'll try to read back and catch up on things and not ask a bilion questions already answered. :)
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Link

Here is the Link Proper....
Also Good Blog at Wunderground Keep it Up Gang
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Quoting Baybuddy:
What ever became of stormjunkie?


...He became a Father.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
1588. Patrap
97L Floater JSL Channel

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
1587. Drakoen
Quoting Mareanao:
Drak, will sal affect this system?


No
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
1586. centex
Quoting Drakoen:
RAMSDIS center fix on the Caribbean AOI, looks like a well defined mid level circulation.
What is the difference between the two AOI? Granted 97L has added convection with ULL interaction but that is not a plus. Both don't have LLC and have mid level.
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1585. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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