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Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Oh my God please don't mention Fl., I would like to be able to go grocery shopping some time this week. Hysteria I tell ya dogs sleeping with cats,etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1683. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hunkerdown:
drak, are you anticipating Armageddon any time within the next 10 days...
while we are at it how about some winning lotto numbers
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61068
Quoting DestinJeff:


None of the reliable computer models are forecasting Armageddon in the next seven days.
but what about the ants, what are the ants doing...quick batman, get on the red phone and hit the NHC button...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
hurricane frances would also be a good one it made landfall in the exact same area


Thought you might like this Seflhurricane.....

Hurricane Frances 2004...


Hurricane Jean 2004 ...
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


The Naked red headed ones :)




ok... I deserved that one!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1679. JRRP
mmmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
pardon me folks.. I am still very much a novice... which of the models are considered to the the most accurate?



none
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117328
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
oops, forgot my manners, good evening !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike, knocks on the NHC began about 5 min before u posted that countdown.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 24928
pardon me folks.. I am still very much a novice... which of the models are considered to the the most accurate?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
THE wave at 7n 33w looks like it going devlop into a TD looks more imprssive than 97L TO ME cant belive NHC DID not GIVE it A LEAST 10 CHANCE the wave western carrbbean should also given a 10 chance too NHC too consertive at times


As was already pointed out, it is embedded in the ITCZ and is at low latitude (6 degrees?). It has a lot of potential, but has to establish low level circulation and get north to pick up some Coriolis effect. NHC is, appropriately, in "show me" mode.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
you may have come on at a bad time...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Mareanao:
drakoen, are you anticipating a percentage upgrade at 2am?
drak, are you anticipating Armageddon any time within the next 10 days...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
well they added the se bahamas on this update maybe the next two they will add so fla
Doubt it. SE Bahamas is 60 miles away from Turks and Caicos; SE FL is more like 600 miles away....

Doubt they add SE FL before tomorrow night if 97L doesn't strengthen appreciably.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 24928
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
I'm surprised the Caribbean disturbance is not even mentioned. Not that surprised about 97L however.
Pressures dropping in the western Caribbean now and developing an anti-cyclone over the AOI again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening to all, I think that the area of weather near 32W need to be monitored, it just looks way more impressive than 97> Any comments?
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Quoting hurricaneben:


And they didn't even UPGRADE the chances of development. Wow. If I were NHC, I'd put Code Red for this TWO, at least Orange
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1657. ackee
THE wave at 7n 33w looks like it going devlop into a TD looks more imprssive than 97L TO ME cant belive NHC DID not GIVE it A LEAST 10 CHANCE the wave western carrbbean should also given a 10 chance too NHC too consertive at times
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sailingallover:

It's been consolidating just north of PR for the last 4 hours...

It is rare that we get to have something with such potential right near a NWS office, radar etc
AT 537 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 37 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 47 NM NORTH OF CABO SAN JUAN TO 35 NM NORTH OF CABO SAN
JUAN...MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.


And they didn't even UPGRADE the chances of development. Wow. If I were NHC, I'd put Code Red for this TWO, at least Orange
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


What is suppose to happen 12~21~12? just wondering
sheri


The date becomes 13.0.0.0.0 on the Mayan Long Count calendar, which happens to be the end of that calendar, which happens to be a very well constructed calendar, which means everyone gets to go bonkers about the End Of The World, or Mayan Spaceships, or whatever folks think. I think its beer thirty...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Baha
...generally access internet via DSL, but I'm not sure how PWS data transmission would affect that.


If you have DSL and WiFi already you are steps ahead.
Do you have a battery/UPS to keep the DSL box and Wireless router alive when power goes off?

The "wireless" link with a PWS would be from the display up to the anemometer on the roof, and it would not interfere with WiFi.


edit add: I LIKE

LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS..
No I don't, and after last weekend's power outage when I didn't have any DSL and didn't have dialup access for my Acer, I began thinking I might need to invest. So that is something else to add to my shopping list.

I'm liking that continued % also - longer it stays that way, better chance of us getting a small blow instead of a big one. A moderate TS is one thing; if this really gets kicking before Wed night we could genuinely be looking at cat 1 conditions, potentially a more NW track, and definitely an unprepared population...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 24928
1652. IKE
NHC probably has someone scanning the blog now and laughing....look we shut down the blog again!

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37938
1651. will45
Baha remember my gut feeling? it is getting stronger lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
1-1-0 continues.

Knocks on the NHC should begin in 5....4.....3....2....1....
too late, look back a few posts...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
here we go the NHC being conservative and i am very surprised they did not mention the wave near the cape verdes looks really good
I could say here we go with the NHC bashers...yes, thats correct, we should listen to Seflhurricane and not the NHC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



you can send a e mail too the nhc


They are the experts. Do not question them!
Insubordination will not be Tolerated. LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
I'm surprised the Caribbean disturbance is not even mentioned. Not that surprised about 97L however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why? I'm not an expert, they are.




but we no some that they dont
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117328
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


What is suppose to happen 12~21~12? just wondering
sheri


The Mayan calendar ends. Some interpret that as a sign of a coming apocalypse of one sort or another.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
on the TWO, I keep telling u pple about appearance vs reality. Some mechanisms need 2 be in place b4 that crayon comes out.

Besides, aquak9 stole the original set of crayons,so now they have to be sparing with the backup ones...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 24928
Slowing pulling itself together looking at cimms vort. 850 is migrating up towards the well defined 500mb NE of Puerto Rico this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
here we go the NHC being conservative and i am very surprised they did not mention the wave near the cape verdes looks really good


I'm not surprised. It's embedded in the ITCZ and is at a very low latitude.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



you can send a e mail too the nhc
Why? I'm not an expert, they are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
1-1-0 continues.

Knocks on the NHC should begin in 5....4.....3....2....1....




BOOM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117328
You were late Ike
heh heh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm surprised that it even wasn't mentioned considering that it has a well-defined mid-level circulation.



you can send a e mail too the nhc
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117328
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1634. IKE
1-1-0 continues.

Knocks on the NHC should begin in 5....4.....3....2....1....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37938

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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