Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

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A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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1731. 7544
yep btw but will hold on im 50 50 on this one altho i think it will be close to so fla then it may just blossom 100 miles out in the bahmmas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1730. SLU
Quoting sailingallover:
VERY impressive lightning show out my window over the Atlantic right now..
I'm up at about 652' with a view to the North out over the ocean...
daytime view





wow, where's that?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Quoting hurricaneben:


And they didn't even UPGRADE the chances of development. Wow. If I were NHC, I'd put Code Red for this TWO, at least Orange
Why? there's nothing much there right now. Maybe in 12 hrs...

Quoting ackee:
THE wave at 7n 33w looks like it going devlop into a TD looks more imprssive than 97L TO ME cant belive NHC DID not GIVE it A LEAST 10 CHANCE the wave western carrbbean should also given a 10 chance too NHC too consertive at times
They are going on more than looks. AFAIK, neither of these systems has a closed LLC, and the CATL wave only has Tstorms where it intersects the ITCZ. In fact, one blogger was in here earlier today asserting that the blowup there was being enhanced by a South Atlantic wx system.... It's more than just the looks of things to the NHC.

Quoting CosmicEvents:
A TD to be like 97L is a great example of why I dislike the yellow-orange-red color system, as it is currently being used. That 48 hour period is the fatal flaw. We can have an AOI like 97L that enough models are developing, but more than 48 hours out. This one will automatically go to RED just with the passage of time...even if it stays as it is. The area should be RED already if you use a color system, imo. And conversly, when you have an AOI that's in the deep tropics, that models out to become a TS within 48 hours but then be sheared apart before it gets within 500 miles of any land should never be RED, but it currently is.
This sounds like u are interpreting the colours to mean something different from what NHC intends. I think I understand why - the Terrorist Warning System. Because that represents danger to you, u figure the NHC system should represent danger to whoever is at the other end of the cone. But that's not the way it works.

Have u thought about emailing NHC, attn: Dan Brown? Until u said that just now, I couldn't figure out why pple keep having so many problems with the colour coding.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting Tazmanian:
if you all want too cool off some from the heat here you go this set up you beach home and swimming pool

Link



oh get your BBQS ready
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1723. SLU
I'm not surprised the NHC didn't mention the 7n 32w cluster of thunderstorms because at face value it looks better than 97L but in reality it's nothing more than just a flare up of convection within the ITCZ. There's no vorticity visible anywhere close to the system. The only turning in the area is directly associated with the wave much further to the north. If it does persist it might be able to spin up a mid-level circulation which can work its way to the surface but for the time being, no development seems likely.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Quoting StormW:


Has the potential for slow development over the next 72-96 hours. Needs to break free of the ITCZ though to get the most bang for its buck.


I just want to thank you Storm for all you do for this blog. Your knowledge is is what everyone here looks for. I have learned so much from you over the last 4 yrs. THANK YOU!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
now about the %30 you where saying



You are very right TAZ.

12ZCMC RADAR OUTPUT AT 78 Hours ...

Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
lol, u guys trip me out
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1719. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if you all want too cool off some from the heat here you go this set up you beach home and swimming pool

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
VERY impressive lightning show out my window over the Atlantic right now..
I'm up at about 652' with a view to the North out over the ocean...
daytime view



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1715. xcool
nice midlevel circulation
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1714. 7544
Quoting xcool:
nice spin on rader


so u see it too hmmmm good xcool
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Instead of advertising for 48 hours….The NHC should just make them valid for 6 hours until the next TWO comes out. JMHO.
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1710. xcool
nice spin on rader
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The NHC didnt go no higher with percentages cause they ran outta orange and red markers....avila is on his way to walmart now...LOL j/k
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1707. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1706. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1704. 7544
Quoting JRRP:
mmmmmm


looks like a nice spin there right
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1703. Patrap
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, I'm convinced that Canglialosi and prolly even the WCM Brown lurk here during slow times [waves at John and Dan] . .. and yeah, they likely get a good joke out of all the downcasting and upcasting... lol


Having met NHC Specialist Avila here last Nov. ,..thats as far from reality as it comes.

They are way too busy to look at foolishness here.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Can't believe they removed yellow circle from the caribbean AOI, looks like its starting to fired up again this evening, anyways I guess the NHC knows best!
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1700. Patrap
Quoting CosmicEvents:
A TD to be like 97L is a great example of why I dislike the yellow-orange-red color system, as it is currently being used. That 48 hour period is the fatal flaw. We can have an AOI like 97L that enough models are developing, but more than 48 hours out. This one will automatically go to RED just with the passage of time...even if it stays as it is. The area should be RED already if you use a color system, imo. And conversly, when you have an AOI that's in the deep tropics, that models out to become a TS within 48 hours but then be sheared apart before it gets within 500 miles of any land should never be RED, but it currently is.


The colors are as ridiculous as the Circles. They are confusing to the Gen Public and serve no purpose In my view.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting IKE:
NHC probably has someone scanning the blog now and laughing....look we shut down the blog again!

Hey, I'm convinced that Canglialosi and prolly even the WCM Brown lurk here during slow times [waves at John and Dan] . .. and yeah, they likely get a good joke out of all the downcasting and upcasting... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting IKE:


Late.

(1)I can't believe they....
(2)Why didn't they add.....
(3)They should have upped 97L to....
(4)Give it til....
(5)TD by Thursday!
(6)Season is a bust!




i buy that last one
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
A TD to be like 97L is a great example of why I dislike the yellow-orange-red color system, as it is currently being used. That 48 hour period is the fatal flaw. We can have an AOI like 97L that enough models are developing, but more than 48 hours out. This one will automatically go to RED just with the passage of time...even if it stays as it is. The area should be RED already if you use a color system, imo. And conversly, when you have an AOI that's in the deep tropics, that models out to become a TS within 48 hours but then be sheared apart before it gets within 500 miles of any land should never be RED, but it currently is.
?????????????
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Quoting hunkerdown:


Lol.

Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening Storm! :)
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1695. Patrap
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS


BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)

The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: Diagram of absolute vorticity advection and relative vorticity formation in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone.. The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.

Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.

Reference: Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC- 70, 89 pp.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting Patrap:


Models are like Human.They all count and have a role. A good start is Knowing what each does. Some are families,some are single.

When one sees consensus among the Spread..and it narrows in time.

Then a solution is garnered.



got it!! thanks..
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Quoting IKE:
1-1-0 continues.

Knocks on the NHC should begin in 5....4.....3....2....1....


Just like the knocks on the NHC during TD2?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A TD to be like 97L is a great example of why I dislike the yellow-orange-red color system, as it is currently being used. That 48 hour period is the fatal flaw. We can have an AOI like 97L that enough models are developing, but more than 48 hours out. This one will automatically go to RED just with the passage of time...even if it stays as it is. The area should be RED already if you use a color system, imo. And conversly, when you have an AOI that's in the deep tropics, that models out to become a TS within 48 hours but then be sheared apart before it gets within 500 miles of any land should never be RED, but it currently is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1691. Patrap
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
pardon me folks.. I am still very much a novice... which of the models are considered to the the most accurate?


Models are like Humans.

They all count and have a role.

A good start is Knowing what each does.

Some are families,some are single.

When one sees consensus among the Spread..and it narrows in time.

Then a solution is garnered.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting StormW:


ECMWF



HWRF? [Storm Specfic]

Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Evening Storm, whats your take on this ball energy around 32W



Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
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1688. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ike, knocks on the NHC began about 5 min before u posted that countdown.... lol


Late.

(1)I can't believe they....
(2)Why didn't they add.....
(3)They should have upped 97L to....
(4)Give it til....
(5)TD by Thursday!
(6)Season is a bust!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
now about the %30 you where saying

I'm really not much of an upcaster but looking at radar, Sat Pics both visible,and IR I think NHC is dropping it on this one..
Granted I see some shear and no real circulation but I also see outflow to the south, really persistent convection a pile of moisture coming in behind to feed it even if its not feeding itself and if they are wrong I'll bring them a case of crow at the boat show this year.
I guess since 7N 33W is so far out and with the models not developing it they don't care about it but it still deserves to be mentioned.
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Evening all...
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Oh my God please don't mention Fl., I would like to be able to go grocery shopping some time this week. Hysteria I tell ya dogs sleeping with cats,etc.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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