Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

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A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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1934. Skyepony (Mod)
ENSO analog years have changed a little with the dive into La Niña.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
If it does not interact with land, 97L could be in da paper in a few days...just my harmless opinion.


Yea. I'm not sure though why the models take it so weak, when the intensity models take it so strong and so does the SHIPS, and OFCL takes shear down to 5 knots in 80 hours or so and takes it to 65 mph in the GOMEX. Someone post the OFCL please?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24765
and yes pottery i know about crickets one of the best bream baits thier is lol.
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Now that I think about it, I may be watching a center relocation...
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:


I totally agree :)

i witnessed first hand both of those storms so i remember them well.

Frances seemed worse even though winds were only CAT2.
Jean was a Cat3 with i think 120mph winds. I lost power for
a week in Frances. It was a wild time.



I imagine so! The only one I can remember riding out was Humberto. And that was a crazy experience. Wild ride is the perfect description. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How do I quote someone I have on ignore. Question of the year answered contact a psychic.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting Hurricanes101:


they are using the MLC as the center now
As they should, all models should also initialize at that point to make them much more accurate for the time being.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Question with a simple answer, I watch Yahoo blogs about the BP oil situation in GOM. Info says that temp at the top of reservoir is about 190 degrees F. The pressure at the sea floor is almost 7000 PSI plus another 2500 PSI from the seawater, so is the methane gas in the reservoir a liquid or a gas?
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HAGN pottery
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world cup of football the saints and 106 million amerians watched them do it whhoooooodatttt.
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Looking at the base radial velocity on that radar, it looks like the LLC and MLC are displaced by about 14 miles and closing. And, the what looks like the MLC is already up to 36 knots. (What appears to be the SLC seems to be somwhere at around 26kt based on radar, but that's off the ocean surface.) The depth of the stack is also increasing, as the 1.45 degree has been showing something more closely resembling a cyclonic wind field than even a half hour ago. There also appeared to be a secondary vortex somewhere to the NNE of the dominant set, but I am having trouble finding it in the loops anymore. IMHO, it's coming together quite well considering the marginal shear conditions and dry air outflow boundaries from earlier.

At it's rate of organization and SST's would not be surprised to see a CAT 1 sometime late Wednesday, early Thursday EDT. But, that's just an amateur's wild butt guess. So, take it for what it's worth.
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1923. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:


NHC OFCL sends it well north. The reason the models are showing this going so west is because they believe its going to remain weak. The intensity models however take it up to a stronger system which would mean a more northward track such as what OFCL is doing.
If it does not interact with land, 97L could be in da paper in a few days...just my harmless opinion.
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1922. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
Naaaa, We'll have to let you slide on the fact you don't knoe the best Football Team in the USA. But when you come for a visit just make sure it is durin the season so we can take you to a game.

Sounds like a Good Deal, to me.
Laters.......
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Quoting pottery:

Question of the YEAR, that one.........


Can't you just take them off ignore list and hit refresh? Then put them back on?
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1920. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T1003)
9:00 AM JST July 20 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Chanthu (996 hPa) located at 17.4N 115.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 19.3N 114.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 20.4N 112.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 21.5N 111.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1919. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Tue 20 Jul 2010 00:45:01Z


2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
97L.INVEST
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
97W.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
04W.CHANTHU
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 57971
Quoting pottery:

Did I say something wrong ?
heheheh
Naaaa, We'll have to let you slide on the fact you don't know the best Football Team in the USA. But when you come for a visit just make sure it is durin the season so we can take you to a game.
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Quoting SLU:
I'm not surprised the NHC didn't mention the 7n 32w cluster of thunderstorms because at face value it looks better than 97L but in reality it's nothing more than just a flare up of convection within the ITCZ. There's no vorticity visible anywhere close to the system. The only turning in the area is directly associated with the wave much further to the north. If it does persist it might be able to spin up a mid-level circulation which can work its way to the surface but for the time being, no development seems likely.


Quite right. Nothing near the system. I was looking at the more northerly mid-level vorticity around 17N when I was liking this system earlier ... my bad for not looking a bit harder at latitude. Explains why the models aren't developing it :-)
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Quoting Patrap:


I ate a cricket once while driving a Boat down yonder in Hopedale.

The windscreen was down.

Wasnt to bad.
The crunch was alil gnarly.

needed salt though.
At least you didn't have to go round hunting down that dang chirp.
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1915. pottery
Well, I gotta go.
But I might return.
So watch out............
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Quoting hydrus:
Should cut it into tiny pieces...;)


NHC OFCL sends it well north. The reason the models are showing this going so west is because they believe its going to remain weak. The intensity models however take it up to a stronger system which would mean a more northward track such as what OFCL is doing.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24765
1913. Patrap
Quoting NewBdoBdo:
No Pat :) just the local channel here in Lafayette


Oh..my bad then.

I like da Lafayette area. Nice people there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131522
1912. bakers
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok while I understand your opinion; I have seen people get blasted for the last month for following the models when they showed development, so why is it that when they are not showing developmebt; they are automatically right?
convective feed back will cause eroneous spin ups of low pressure in some models
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1911. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:




downcaster

definitively
lol
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1910. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
Cricket...Pat get a rope....LOL

Did I say something wrong ?
heheheh
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's just crazy! I know we just couldn't believe we kept getting hit year after year. But twice in the same year with storms of that magnitude - I couldn't imagine. Starting over again and again is trying. It drains you inside and out. And I know some people think we're crazy to keep living where we do. But I've seen a lot of good sane people who pick up the pieces and just go on. Making our communities stronger in some cases. Some people do move. And I respect that decision too. If that's how our neighbors can deal with it then I wish them the best and will help them all I can.

All this feeling of community is new to me. But in the past few years I've been a part of one and it's pretty special. Not unlike the community we have here on WU. And for all our bickering we come together and help each other out of a bind. Whether it be money, time, expertise or just a shoulder to cry on, that's good to see too. So let's look out for each other this season on and off-line. You never know when something you say can help someone. Everyone's insight can be as valuable as the next persons. So don't be afraid to speak out. Not that that is a problem for some of us. :) Lol.


I totally agree :)

i witnessed first hand both of those storms so i remember them well.

Frances seemed worse even though winds were only CAT2.
Jean was a Cat3 with i think 120mph winds. I lost power for
a week in Frances. It was a wild time.

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No Pat :) just the local channel here in Lafayette
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
AOI in the Eastern Atlantic is not the ball of convection in the ITCZ, but the circulation to the NE of it
The circulation is dusted..came off the coast looking impressive and now close to nekkid. it will be 5 days before it deos a 97L move. The convection at 7N 34W is at a convergence zone between the NA and SA systems and has been firing convection continuously now for over 48 hours...
Since it is below the dust it has a better chance. The NHC has neither as an area of interest so we get to pick and I pick 7N33W.
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1906. Patrap
When was the last Hurricane to Strike Florida?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131522
Is it possible for 97L to continue to strengthen even with the wind shear?
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Quoting bakers:
not meaning to be a downcaster, just a realist. all you have to do is check the majors nogaps gfs, canadian, ecmwf. if none show development particularly in the short term then none will occur.


ok while I understand your opinion; I have seen people get blasted for the last month for following the models when they showed development, so why is it that when they are not showing development; they are automatically right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1903. hydrus
Quoting stormpetrol:
97L headed west, Islands of Hispanola and Cuba should hamper further development imo.
Should cut it into tiny pieces...;)
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1902. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Cricket...Pat get a rope....LOL


I ate a cricket once while driving a Boat down yonder in Hopedale.

The windscreen was down.

Wasnt to bad.
The crunch was alil gnarly.

needed salt though.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131522
Quoting pottery:

Oh, Sorry.
But unless the Saints play Cricket, I have never heard of them...
(just to prove that down here in de tird worl, we are Politically Unaware)
heheheheh
More importantly, who won the world cup??? ROTF LOL

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1900. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Have not seen T-Dude for a while, come to think of it, Hydrus.

Exactly my point, Dragonfly
I hope everything is cool. He had some good posts here...How is your drought, er flood or whatever going on way down there....
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Quoting pottery:

Oh, Sorry.
But unless the Saints play Cricket, I have never heard of them...
(just to prove that down here in de tird worl, we are Politically Unaware)
heheheheh
Cricket...Pat get a rope....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1898. bakers
not meaning to be a downcaster, just a realist. all you have to do is check the majors nogaps gfs, canadian, ecmwf. if none show development particularly in the short term then none will occur.
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1897. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


I know that. Im a Parliment Fan from way Back.,.
snicker


"Who Dat" is the New Orleans Saints Cheer.

ya know,,the Super Bowl Winna's

Oh, Sorry.
But unless the Saints play Cricket, I have never heard of them...
(just to prove that down here in de tird worl, we are Politically Unaware)
heheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
hurricane frances would also be a good one it made landfall in the exact same area


Thought you might like this Seflhurricane.....

Hurricane Frances 2004...


Hurricane Jean 2004 ...


That's just crazy! I know we just couldn't believe we kept getting hit year after year. But twice in the same year with storms of that magnitude - I couldn't imagine. Starting over again and again is trying. It drains you inside and out. And I know some people think we're crazy to keep living where we do. But I've seen a lot of good sane people who pick up the pieces and just go on. Making our communities stronger in some cases. Some people do move. And I respect that decision too. If that's how our neighbors can deal with it then I wish them the best and will help them all I can.

All this feeling of community is new to me. But in the past few years I've been a part of one and it's pretty special. Not unlike the community we have here on WU. And for all our bickering we come together and help each other out of a bind. Whether it be money, time, expertise or just a shoulder to cry on, that's good to see too. So let's look out for each other this season on and off-line. You never know when something you say can help someone. Everyone's insight can be as valuable as the next persons. So don't be afraid to speak out. Not that that is a problem for some of us. :) Lol.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
97L looks good tonight it looks so good that i think this will be are 1st cat 3 or higher


So "Bonnie" is starting to look pretty good, huh?
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97L headed west, Islands of Hispanola and Cuba should hamper further development imo.
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1893. IKE
Looks like a couple of BAM models have trended north a tad on the end of the run.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1892. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131522
Quoting FLdewey:
I think JFV should come back with the handle "re ported"

Prolly open up some blog hole. ;)
Your own post is re-portable....as is this one. Boy, that 97 is one heck of an L.
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1890. SLU
Quoting sailingallover:
ST Thomas I tried to post the view but it didn't show..again


great view
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 97, 2010072000, , BEST, 0, 190N, 658W, 25, 1014, WV,


they are using the MLC as the center now
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It would be great to see that circle stay at yellow for another 48 hours. Pragmatically, however, I doubt that will be the case....
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Good evening everyone! I heard on local news last night 97L would probably be pulled North...guess I should stop watching that guy.
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1885. IKE
No wonder Dr. Masters doesn't post much. Or read much.

Secret shoppers on the blog.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1884. Patrap
A great post just appeared on my Latest Blog Entry folks.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131522

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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