Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

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A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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2584. xcool


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2583. xcool
TampaSpin GOOD ;)
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
it wasn't!... dont give up your day job for weather forecasting TEX.


LOL um what if im going to be a freshman in atmo sci next semester am i susposed to give that up ??? lol
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But, Storms are now starting to fire directly to the north of the COC in that tiny spot....here we go it appears.
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2579. xcool
TampaSpin HAHA NOO LOL
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Awesome Tampa. I am happy for you. Really i have been on WU for 6 YEARS, but i just cant take the bs anymore. It's not worth it. It would be easier to just just pay accu-weather for my weather.
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97L is currently a very naked swirl currently.
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2576. xcool



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One thing the BAM models show.....as they should! A stronger Storm goes north while a Shallow storm heads South...

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2573. xcool
BEE
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really gone now. I'm nodding over the keyboard... lol

NIght all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
you have to be a teenage kid to have that kind of logic. A "response" is not "lay off the pipe" it
is an insult. People like you,Scott39 and all the other kiddies have completely ruined Dr. Masters
blog. I pray someone is taking notice- many people have left this site because of idiots like you guys
and now are starting their own weather web sites. I guess i will be next if this continues.
The main blog has become a JOKE! even Today Stormw was talking about leaving WU for
practicly the same reasons and he is a feautured blogger.


Yeppers......that is why i have over 200 registered on my site now....been there all nite talking to others.
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Quoting THUNDERPR:
Station FRDP4 - 9753216 - Fajardo, PR
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )


29.91 in Rio Grande, PR and falling- seems like it might be closer to the coc
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Hmmm.... wonder how far and fast this will drop...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
2566. xcool
HMMM Pressure START DROP
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Station FRDP4 - 9753216 - Fajardo, PR
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
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Quoting 34chip:
So will a depression or tstorm be in the florida keys???


the models dont seem to think so but i would expect rain, which you may already expect during the summer from sea breaze- I know we expect it here in houston being right next to the gulf but im not sure about the keys. hope this was helpfull
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2563. xcool
HA
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It was fun until I came in the room. Wow.

I guess I better go back to bed....


lol Im out too

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It was fun until I came in the room. Wow.

I guess I better go back to bed....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
2560. JLPR2
Well, I'm off to bed.

Maybe 97L will make up its mind tomorrow


The ITCZ persistent disturbance is still there:


Good night everyone! ^^
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2559. xcool
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
obviously you didnt get it 101. It's "romper room" as usual on the blog. Saying things like "lay of the pipe" is an insult which there is no place on this blog for. If you want to defend that type of activity maybe you should be banned too.





look this is a blog and we dont really need people arguing or saying hurtfull things, if someone says somthing you dont agree with then just ignore them and get on with it. if yall would like to have an argument please do it somewhere else we really dont need it here, thank you
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2557. scott39
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
My last post was for Scott39. Somehow the quote button didnt work.

everyday we have to deal with a new troll. I am so tired of this.

TROLL WIPE FOR TODAY: SCOTT39

Quoting TropicalNonsense:
My last post was for Scott39. Somehow the quote button didnt work.

everyday we have to deal with a new troll. I am so tired of this.

TROLL WIPE FOR TODAY: SCOTT39

Hey Nonsense--- Thats exactly what you posted on 2513. Looks like you need some anger management! By the way ive been posting on here for awhile, and im nowhere near a troll. Have a nice night! poof
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well, nite all. Hopefully tomorrow sometime we will have a better idea of what 97L may do....
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obviously you didnt get it 101. It's "romper room" as usual on the blog. Saying things like "lay of the pipe" is an insult which there is no place on this blog for. If you want to defend that type of activity maybe you should be banned too.



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2554. 34chip
So will a depression or tstorm be in the florida keys???
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
My last post was for Scott39. Somehow the quote button didnt work.

everyday we have to deal with a new troll. I am so tired of this.

TROLL WIPE FOR TODAY: SCOTT39



wait wait, so you go overboard, say the tropics are a bust (which is ridiculous at this point), and then you say scott39 is a troll for responding to you?

wow talk about Tropical Nonsense lol
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My last post was for Scott39. Somehow the quote button didnt work.

everyday we have to deal with a new troll. I am so tired of this.

TROLL WIPE FOR TODAY: SCOTT39

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2551. xcool
convection forming NOW NICE
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Try again...

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Gaddiggit.... I was hoping they'd hold off on that orange circle until 8 a.m.

Shouldn't let Stacy work the graveyard shift... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
2547. msphar
Lookd like shearing to the North has been working its magic.
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2546. Relix
97L wants to sink PR confirmed. It's now.. what, reforming to the East or something? =/
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Quoting scott39:
Why isnt convection forming N of 97L COC?


where do you see a COC i cant find one
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Sounds like you want to be banned. Mind your own business and keep that mouth to yourself and talk about weather. or go somewhere else TROLL!
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2543. 34chip
So should I worry if I live in Key West??
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2542. scott39
Why isnt convection forming N of 97L COC?
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Hey they brought it up to 30%
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Tomorrow looks like another long day.

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2539. msphar
I'm getting tired of the rain invading my boat too!
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.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 200549
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 5
INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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wow the 2AM update from NHC hasnt come out yet
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2535. msphar
I'm getting tired of this rerun roy storm. It keeps hitting the eastern point of PR with lots of lightning/thunder. Shouldn't it be going elsewhere ?
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2534. xcool
LOL
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.