Russia records its hottest temperature in history; 97L forms near Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2010

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A heat wave of unprecedented intensity has brought the world's largest country its hottest temperature in history. On July 11, the ongoing Russian heat wave sent the mercury to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 11, 2010 for Russia. Russia's hottest temperature in history was recorded in Yashkul, 44.0°C (111.2°F). This was 9 - 10°C (16 - 18°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Moscow on track for its hottest July in history
According to the Russian weather service, the first fourteen days of July in Moscow averaged 6.2°C above average. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures averaging 5.3°C above average, so Moscow is on track to set the record for its warmest July in history. The past four days, Moscow has averaged 8.2°C above average. The heat wave peaked on July 17, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F). Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time is 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for high temperatures between 31 - 38°C (88 - 100°F) for the coming week, no end to the heat wave is in sight. Weather records for Moscow extend back to 1879.

Russia's remarkable heat wave has led to a state of emergency to be declared for 19 of Russia's 83 provinces, and record number of Russians have been drowning in swimming accidents as they take to the water to escape the heat. Over 1200 Russians drowned in June, with another 233 dying between July 5 and 12. The heat has also created dangerous levels of air pollution in Moscow, and severely impacted agriculture.

Nine new national extreme heat records this year
As I commented in Friday's post, six nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia's hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week's record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records. My source for previous all-time records is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. I thank Mr. Burt and weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of tropical wave 97L near Puerto Rico, and another tropical wave near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves worth watching
A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

A second region of concern is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, near Jamaica. This wave is currently producing widely scattered thunderstorms, and shows no signs of organization. However, wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots over the wave, and we need to keep an eye on this one. The wave will continue to the west at 10 - 15 mph this week, and will bring the threat of heavy rain to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on July 18, 2010, estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto the portions of the Louisiana nearest the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 97L does. It's a pleasant relief to look at the trajectory maps and not see the usual bull's eye of high oil concentrations at the blowout site! However, there is still plenty of oil in the Gulf that will slosh onto shore in the coming weeks and months.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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3084. Grothar
2:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
3083. portcharlotte
2:25 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Bastardi's blog on 97L

And also meaning business is what should be our 2cnd ts of the season by the time it reaches Florida Friday or Saturday. This could mess up my weekend plans as Joey cant travel if tropical cyclones are on the map. It also means that I was wise to choose not to go to the Bahamas this year with our friends, for it was later this week we were supposed to go. Believe me, if this things spins up, everyone in this house is going to know about it since it was one of the reasons I didnt want to go this year, me fear of the season starting to rev up about now. In any case the track by the GFS looks a little too far north, but we have to wait and see where the low level center pops out.

One cant help but notice how this does not rev up over the gulf. That makes sense, if it crosses Florida from the southeast then they dont increase again back to their original intensity. Its the ones coming from the east, or in the case of Katrina, east northeast, or passing south of the state, that are the big ones in the gulf. The eastern gulf is a dead zone for these things moving from the southeast..

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
3082. Waltanater
2:06 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting gator23:


Yes people fromt he Kyes evacuate for Cat 1's precisely fo rthe reason you mentioned. From Monroe EOC

FOR ANY HURRICANE:
All persons that live in mobile homes, travel trailers, recreational vehicles (RVs), and boats are required to evacuate.
Without regard to structure type, all persons that live in low-lying areas or directly adjacent to the water will receive a recommendation to evacuate.
All persons that are sick, elderly, or disabled will receive a recommendation to evacuate the mainland.
All women in their third trimester of pregnancy will receive a recommendation to evacuate.
All non-residents and visitors to the Florida Keys.


Did Monroe County change these evacuation policies? I know they were talking about it last year about "easing up" on them. CAT3 is MANDATORY evac for everyone in the keys.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3081. cg2916
1:48 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3080. Waltanater
1:47 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting Fujiwara:
Hello Everyone.
I'm new to this board, and just wanted to say howdy. I have an obsession with tracking cyclones and monitoring their development. 97L is starting to get me a little concerned...


Welcome obsessed tracker! LOL
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3078. MiamiHurricanes09
1:45 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3077. RitaEvac
1:45 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
ridge over the SE is the driver, intense ridge means farther west and south, weaker means farther North
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
3076. sporteguy03
1:45 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5415
3074. msgambler
1:44 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Moving more west then north on the end of the run. That track would come in around Pensacola...Mobile.

Similar to the latest NOGAPS run>>>Link
Hey there, Not the "M" word.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
3073. cg2916
1:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3072. connie1976
1:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
I live in Pembroke Pines, right next to the Everglades... does this mean that we will actually at least get some good rain? lol I'm sure that the models will change a billion times....
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
3071. CyclonicVoyage
1:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Florida from the east in July, that is unheard of.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3070. MiamiHurricanes09
1:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
12z SHIPS as well taking 97L through south Florida, however the SHIPS takes it very close to a category 2 hurricane.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 12, 192N, 670W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 24, 198N, 686W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 36, 206N, 705W, 56, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 48, 214N, 722W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 60, 224N, 742W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 72, 235N, 763W, 73, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 84, 246N, 783W, 76, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 96, 254N, 800W, 77, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 108, 265N, 818W, 78, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 120, 277N, 836W, 76, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3069. PanhandleChuck
1:42 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Moving more west then north on the end of the run. That track would come in around Pensacola...Mobile.

Similar to the latest NOGAPS run>>>Link


Ike --- that would be an OH S! <(four letter word that I can't post)
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
3068. IKE
1:42 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
new blog
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3067. IKE
1:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z "Official" track takes 97L as a category 1 hurricane through south Florida in 96 hours.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,


Moving more west then north on the end of the run. That track would come in around Pensacola...Mobile.

Similar to the latest NOGAPS run>>>Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3066. CybrTeddy
1:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z "Official" track takes 97L as a category 1 hurricane through south Florida in 96 hours.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,


This track and intensity forecast is issued by the NHC for those who are wondering. This storm has potential, and big some too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
3065. hahaguy
1:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Figures, I was suppose to go to the keys on friday lol.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
3064. 7544
1:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
3 days away hmmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
3063. sporteguy03
1:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
In the neutral phase, storms that form in the Caribbean and off Hispaniola are more likely to hit Florida than the East Coast (Fig. 11). While it is geographically logical that storms forming in the Caribbean will hit Florida, the storms forming to the northeast of Hispaniola are equally likely to hit either Florida or the East Coast.

Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5415
3062. MiamiHurricanes09
1:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Fun and games is about to end.
I'm with you there, with everything I see it looks like 97L will evolve to Bonnie.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3061. GeoffreyWPB
1:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
South Florida Water Management District Weather

9:27AM Tuesday, July 20, 2010 (eps)

Synopsis: Below average daily thunderstorm coverage through Thursday; wet Friday. An upper level low north of Hispaniola will back westward over the next few days and subsiding air on its west side will suppress thunderstorm development over the District. Steering winds will focus scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly west through Thursday. The upper level low is also interacting with a tropical wave near Puerto Rico. With or without development, moisture from this system is expected to bring increased thunderstorm activity to the District Friday.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
3059. CyclonicVoyage
1:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting IKE:


That don't look good neither for south Florida. Looks like 3-4 days away.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A PERSISTENT BREEZY ONSHORE WIND FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR PUERTO RICO FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
POSSIBLE DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3058. MiamiHurricanes09
1:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic:


No this cant be happening!
LOL! Nah, he's cool.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3057. PanhandleChuck
1:37 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Hmmm.


I caught it too old eagle eye
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
3056. IKE
1:36 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z "Official" track takes 97L as a category 1 hurricane through south Florida in 96 hours.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,


Fun and games is about to end.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3055. IKE
1:36 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm with you on possible CODE RED at 8PM. Teh low might develop later today though.


Hmmm.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3054. MiamiHurricanes09
1:36 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
12z "Official" track takes 97L as a category 1 hurricane through south Florida in 96 hours.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3053. WeatherNerdPR
1:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic:


No this cant be happening!

LOL It was an accidental typo. I didn't notice until you quoted me.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
3052. IKE
1:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


That don't look good neither for south Florida. Looks like 3-4 days away.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3051. raggpr
1:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting Relix:
Here's the news for my PR pals: http://www.elnuevodia.com/bajoaguafajardo-745261.html

Closed Roads in the east: http://www.primerahora.com/meteorologiaextiendeavisodeinundacionesparavariospueblos-401632.html


Oh! sorry Relix you are right i read it just now. Jummmmm it seems to be pretty bad for Fajardo
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
3050. CaneHunter031472
1:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting Relix:
Here's the news for my PR pals: http://www.elnuevodia.com/bajoaguafajardo-745261.html

Closed Roads in the east: http://www.primerahora.com/meteorologiaextiendeavisodeinundacionesparavariospueblos-401632.html


Oh man and that Rio Grande de Loiza floods so darn easily too. My people stay home and don't be going out.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
3048. seflagamma
1:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Hi Everyone,

Well I guess I will be checking in and out a little more in the next few days while we wait and see what is going to happen with 97L.

I'm in the Ft Lauderdale (Broward) area..
we could use the rain..but want no part of another hurricane...had enough in 2004/2005..
and Wilma clobbered us really bad!

So right now does not look so organized right?

I noticed yesterday the models had it running west south of Fla, now they are all running into SE Fla...so that means they will probably change again a few more times...
if it develops.

Please keep your informaton coming and thanks!

Good morning to you all,
Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40926
3047. WeatherNerdPR
1:33 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If 97L does develop an area of low pressure today I reckon the NHC may give it red shading at 8PM EDT.

I'm with you on possible CODE RED at 8PM. Teh low might develop later today though.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
3046. PanhandleChuck
1:33 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Impactweather does not see this developing until it reaches the straights between Fl and Cuba. Then as it develops, heading North into the Gulf Coast anywhere between La and the Panhandle Sunday evening
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
3045. Waltanater
1:33 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting 7544:
is it moving or stationary and if its stalls can it gain better oranized


"...can it gain better oranized?"
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3044. CyclonicVoyage
1:32 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3043. Relix
1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Here's the news for my PR pals: http://www.elnuevodia.com/bajoaguafajardo-745261.html

Closed Roads in the east: http://www.primerahora.com/meteorologiaextiendeavisodeinundacionesparavariospueblos-401632.html
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
3042. msgambler
1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:
i am suppos3ed to camp at Coldwater this weekend.near Milton. hmmm
TWH, good morning and I think you will be fine for Coldwater this weekend as long as you don't plan on an extended stay into next week.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
3041. CaneHunter031472
1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Cat 1, 2, or greater, I don't care. I'll prepare the same. I'm taking my deed, flooding insurance documents, wind and hail insurance documents and every other inportant document, birth certificates insurance cards all sorts of stuff will put it all in a box and have it in the trunk of my car by tonight. If I have to go I dont care about shoring the house it is all covered, but i'm not staying. Not after what Katrina did, and this one reminds me of Katrina just an inocent looking invest until it got next to Florida, and then after leaving Florida it became a monster.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
3040. CyclonicVoyage
1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3039. raggpr
1:30 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting Relix:
Well, from what I can see... there's no "center" at 19.0N north of SJ. Any possible circulation is south of Vieques, following SJU's Radar.

News Report from PR: Fajardo mayor says it's the biggest flooding in the history of the municipality. Fajardo River has gone berserk, some reserve tanks exploded and many roads flooded. Also, multiple roads flooded in the east. Lots and lots. Two people missing because of the rain and rivers (people defying them).


Wow Relix where did you found that? in www.puertoricopanic.com?, i havent seen anything that worst on the news. I know there is one person missing and flooding but that text you posted is somehow over reacting
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
3038. Relix
1:30 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I didn't Know flooding in Fajardo was that extreme.


Yeah, the article is up at Endi.com
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
3037. WeatherNerdPR
1:29 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Quoting Relix:
Well, from what I can see... there's no "center" at 19.0N north of SJ. Any possible circulation is south of Vieques, following SJU's Radar.

News Report from PR: Fajardo mayor says it's the biggest flooding in the history of the municipality. Fajardo River has gone berserk, some reserve tanks exploded and many roads flooded. Also, multiple roads flooded in the east. Lots and lots. Two people missing because of the rain and rivers (people defying them).

I didn't Know flooding in Fajardo was that extreme.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
3036. twhcracker
1:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
i am suppos3ed to camp at Coldwater this weekend.near Milton. hmmm
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
3035. Goldenblack
1:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Those of you in Miami-Dade seems pretty sure to receive something in the form of rain at least. I have found that our Tampa office is a little more conservative, sometimes to annoyance: (from Ruskin, FL.)

MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY IN REGARDS TO TIMING...PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. LATEST GFS RUN NOW DEVELOPS THE TROUGH
INTO A CLOSED LOW PUSHING TO THE NE FL. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE W CARIBBEAN. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVE
UNCERTAINLY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WITH
THAT...WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 706
3034. sporteguy03
1:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2010
Ike the 00z GFS showed it going East of FL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml

Although the MLB discussion says this:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
331 am EDT Tuesday Jul 20 2010

Fri-Tue...models differ on evolution of tropical wave currently
vicinity of Puerto Rico. The GFS is out on its own showing a weak
low moving into central Florida on Sat and instead prefer the
European model (ecmwf) which shows a spot low passing through the Florida Straits
and into the southeast Gulf by late Friday as the Stout Atlantic
ridge holds vicinity of 30n. This would keep the area in an
east/southeast flow through the weekend with an influx of deeper
moisture starting Friday or Sat with higher probability of precipitation for a few days.

I don't see any mention of trofs or fronts nearby so I was surprised that the models moved North as they did and were not more South closer to Cuba.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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