Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2010

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A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1238. msgambler
11:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting unf97:

Why won't he be frequenting the blog much?
You'll have to read back through the posts, he explained. Other than that...it's personal I would suppose.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1237. MiamiHurricanes09
11:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
He will still post his update. But may not be back till next month.
Na, he's staying, he'll still be on here blogging often. He just put that out there today.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1236. CybrTeddy
11:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
NHC probably won't mention the Caribbean disturbance. NAM needs support from models.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24148
1235. CJC111
11:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
He made a post earlier today that he was considering it
1234. TankHead93
11:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


I made it from a collection of single images that are not accessible directly from the Internet but rather from bookmarked links from when the site was publicly accessible.

LINK
THANKS!
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
1233. MiamiHurricanes09
11:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


How true is this? Anybody?
It's true. He's been seriously considering leaving this blog because he has to continuously regurgitate that this will not be a "bust" of a season. And I agree with him, many keep saying that this season isn't going to go anywhere because of the slow start.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1232. mynameispaul
11:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

LSU Earth Scan Lab GOES-13 trops wv imagery
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
1231. unf97
11:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
He will still post his update. But may not be back till next month.

Why won't he be frequenting the blog much?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1230. HurricaneSwirl
11:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
No one answered my question so.. I'll be a pest and ask again >:) XD

Can someone point me to HPC's archives for Alex after the NHC stopped issuing advisories for it?

Right here I can find archives for storms from 1997-2009, and TD2 because it's the most recent storm, but it skips out on Alex. It's either right in front of my face and I don't notice or it's not there (I dunno why it wouldn't be), can someone please direct me?


Repost of my question from page 13 for the 5th time. Still looking for that Alex archive.

All the bickering today has really scared off the people who actually wanna learn.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1229. Patrap
11:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Dvorak



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128617
1228. msgambler
11:06 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting unf97:
StormW leaving this blog? No. Say it isn't so. When this all of this start?
He will still post his update. But may not be back till next month.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1227. Cavin Rawlins
11:05 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting unf97:
StormW leaving this blog? No. Say it isn't so. When this all of this start?


How true is this? Anybody?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1226. extreme236
11:05 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
I don't foresee that African wave becoming a threat to develop until it can clear the dust it's entrenched in right now.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1225. Cavin Rawlins
11:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting TankHead93:
Weather456, Could you possibly send me a link to the satellite loop of the Africa AOI that you have posted on your blog today?


I made it from a collection of single images that are not accessible directly from the Internet but rather from bookmarked links from when the site was publicly accessible.

LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1224. MiamiHurricanes09
11:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting extreme236:


That's near the Bahamas. Interesting.
Those coordinates must be wrong. The AOI near the Antilles won't be able to cover the much ground in that short of a time-frame, also the Jamaica AOI isn't that far north.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1223. unf97
11:03 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
StormW leaving this blog? No. Say it isn't so. When this all of this start?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1222. extreme236
11:03 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, slow organization of this system into a tropical depression isn't that far-fetched. It has several things in its favor (favorable upper level pattern, warmest SSTs, etc...) than all the other 3 AOI's.


Agreed.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1221. MiamiHurricanes09
11:01 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting extreme236:


Maybe the NAM might not be so far off as it usually is. This could be an interesting AOI to watch.
Yeah, slow organization of this system into a tropical depression isn't that far-fetched. It has several things in its favor (favorable upper level pattern, warmest SSTs, etc...) than all the other 3 AOI's.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1220. CJC111
11:01 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
The need for attention by some is almost overwhelming. Those who agitate and debate argumentatively (not to be confused with a rational debate) are looking for interaction of any kind or always feel they have something to prove. I've noticed that during slow periods, this blog has less to do with weather than someone trying to establish themselves in a social circle.

For those who are offended by someone attacking them, why bother? The negative remarks about anyone has no point and makes zero difference. To respond to those attacks only "feeds the animals". Don't leave food out for the raccoons and eventually, they will go away.

Very glad to see 456 here and very sorry to hear that stormw is considering leaving. They are 2 of a few people why many come here. Dr. M's original post and the analysis of a few that know what they are talking about - that's what makes this place great.

Banning has no effect on anyone who hasn't figured out how to get free email addresses all day long. Not to mention the fact that as the owner of a site, I dought they really want to driver that many people away. A business model that relies on membership isn't nearly as effective as a site that is proven to have high traffic and sells advertising. IP banning would eventually ban someone who shouldn't be banned since IP addresses are dynamic and change from person to person with many service providers. I might recommend, however, that banning an IP with a short term expiration might prove affective. Just my thoughts on the subject.
1219. msgambler
11:01 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Alright I see 4 of the most valued and respected bloggers from years past here so we are all waiting for input....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1218. Chicklit
11:00 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Agree the Central Caribbean should be AOI at 8 p.m. Dr. Masters said in his blog that the CV wave in the Leewards will take some time as it has a few things to contend with at present.
...No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop...JM
Its presentation on this view is impressive, however. Loop And looks more organized than the CentralCarib blob here. But on water vapor and IR, the CC blob has better convection.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11345
1217. extreme236
11:00 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



That's near the Bahamas. Interesting.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1216. Patrap
10:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z.


BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128617
1215. TankHead93
10:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Weather456, Could you possibly send me a link to the satellite loop of the Africa AOI that you have posted on your blog today?
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
1214. extreme236
10:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm starting to think that they should shade the tropical wave by Jamaica. It has developed an anticyclone and satellite presentation ain't that bad either. Unlike its Lesser Antilles counterpart, this area could develop in the next 48 hours as upper level conditions are nowhere near as hostile.





Maybe the NAM might not be so far off as it usually is. This could be an interesting AOI to watch.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1213. unf97
10:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting extreme236:
The area near Jamaica is interesting. I'd like to see it mentioned in the TWO.


Convection has been increasing steadily on this disturbance SE of Jamaica. And, I checked the morning runs and it appears that an anticyclone is beginning to get over this disturbance as well. I think conditions for this disturbed area are definitely improving with time, and I will not be shocked at all if we see this as an invest area soon.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1212. Cavin Rawlins
10:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting Surfcropper:


Got a visual of the Bahamas?


It was referring to the near future.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1211. MiamiHurricanes09
10:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting extreme236:
The area near Jamaica is interesting. I'd like to see it mentioned in the TWO.
Same here.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1210. BahaHurican
10:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:


Yea Baha -- completely agree with you.
Hey, zoo... it's been rough in the blog today... thank goodness for Bill Cosby [braindamaged kids and sick and tired].... lol

Did ya'll get rain today from our latest ULL/Twave combination?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22299
1209. Patrap
10:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Low Cloud Product Image,Caribbean
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128617
1208. JLPR2
10:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Both area's 850mb vort weakened slightly.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
1207. AllyBama
10:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
Quoting hurrkat05:
ally a real storm won't develop until around the 10th of august...all these blobs are exactly blobs not going to do anything..


I know...but from the looks of things in this blog, there needs to be some form of diversion to calm the nerves of some bloggers here - lol
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
1206. Cavin Rawlins
10:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
The wave near the Lesser Antilles is rather disorganized. Remember all that convection is sheared NE of the maximum low-mid rotation. I would be surprise to see an increase of more than 10%.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1205. MiamiHurricanes09
10:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
I'm starting to think that they should shade the tropical wave by Jamaica. It has developed an anticyclone and satellite presentation ain't that bad either. Unlike its Lesser Antilles counterpart, this area could develop in the next 48 hours as upper level conditions are nowhere near as hostile.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1203. extreme236
10:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
The area near Jamaica is interesting. I'd like to see it mentioned in the TWO.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1202. xcool
10:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2010
WE FIND OUT
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1201. Orcasystems
10:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2010


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Hurricanes101:
so 456 what are you seeing in the near future for the tropics?


I'm seeing some kind disturbance near the SE Bahamas. This probably has my attention the most.

The wave near Africa is expected to traverse the subtropical Atlantic so the likelihood of affecting land is uncertain at this time.

The one near Jamaica appears to have the greatest conditions now and ahead of the four.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting xcool:
I wouldn't be suprised TO SEE orange AT 8
Not yet needs to get better organized
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting xcool:
I wouldn't be suprised TO SEE orange AT 8


I'd be shocked..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24148
Quoting Hurricanes101:
so 456 what are you seeing in the near future for the tropics?


I'm seeing some kind disturbance near the SE Bahamas. This probably has my attention the most.

The wave near Africa is expected to traverse the subtropical Atlantic so the likelihood of affecting land is uncertain at this time.

The one near Jamaica appears to have the greatest conditions now and ahead of the four.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1195. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128617
1194. xcool
I wouldn't be suprised TO SEE orange AT 8


IMO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting extreme236:


Still rather disorganized. I'd like to see some model runs on it, but I don't think I'd raise the percentage yet until I see some increased likelihood for development.
Yeah, satellite presentation is lacking. The reason that I think they should bump the chances is because I've noted that when the chance is 20% an invest is immediately tagged.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1191. unf97
Quoting TankHead93:
I agree, it looks to be getting better organized.


There may be an anticyclone developing over this disturbed area as well.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ya'll are living in a dream world.

1. Who says trolls can't afford membership fees?

2. If pple WOULD STOP TALKING ABOUT THE GUY there would be no problem. So far 2day I have [-]ed about 20 posts by the alleged troll and nearly 200 by bloggers who quote him, talk to and about him, and warn others to stop. THIS IS THE NON-WEATHER CONVERSATION THAT IS KILLING THE BLOG. I have been fed up all day because I can't see the wx conversation w/out having to wade through all the other non-wx comments. And some of the very pple lamenting the state of the blog are the ones who are causing the horrible state!!!!!

I keep promising not to post again about what other pple are saying, and I will try to stick to that promise in the future. However, I will say it again, and I have a feeling a lot of bloggers are quietly using their keypads to do the same:

Any blogger who a) quotes a troll b) responds to a troll's baiting c) references or draws attention to a troll d) cracks jokes on a troll or e) quotes anybody who does any of the a) to d) above will be [-]ed and [!] as necessary.

Less talk; more action, concerned bloggers.


I obviously could not have said it better myself..THANK YOU BAHA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the wave near SE Jamaica is about to take off big time, it has sucked all the energy out of the SW caribbean, jmo of course.
I agree, it looks to be getting better organized.
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
1188. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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