About Jeff Masters
Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on July 16, 2010
June 2010 was the warmest June since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and was the fourth consecutive warmest month on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June 2010 the third warmest June on record, behind June 1998 and June 2009. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - June, as the warmest such period on record. June 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fourth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in June, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The record warmest temperatures in the lower atmosphere were recorded in 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from June 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
June 2010 features an unprecedented heat wave in Asia and North Africa
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity brought the hottest temperatures in recorded history to six nations in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, in June 2010. At least two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever in June.
The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.
Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.
Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.
In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.
Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.
Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.
The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperature in history on June 25, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.
Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. According to Mr. Burt, the only other time as many as six nations set their all-time highest temperature marks in a single month was during the European heat wave of August 2003.
Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010, the day after Iraq recorded its hottest temperature in its history. Image credit: NASA.
June 2010 Arctic sea ice extent lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in June 2010 was the lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The rate of ice loss during June was the fastest on record, approximately 50% faster than average. Ice volume was also at a record low through the first half of June, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The record ice loss in June was due in large part to the presence of strong high pressure north of Alaska, combined with strong low pressure over Siberia, which drove warm air from Asia over the pole. This pressure pattern, called the Arctic Dipole, was unknown until the 2000s, and may be the result of climate change.
Eighth warmest June on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 8th warmest June in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Three states had their warmest June on record: Delaware, New Jersey, and North Carolina. Seventeen states had a top-ten warmest June, with five of these recording their second warmest June ever (Maryland, Virginia, South Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana.) No state recorded a top-ten coldest June.
U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., June 2010 ranked as the 17th wettest June in the 116-year record. June precipitation was the wettest on record for Michigan. Several other states were also anomalously wet, including: Iowa (2nd wettest), Nebraska and Illinois (3rd wettest), Indiana (4th wettest), Wisconsin (5th wettest), Oregon (6th wettest), and Ohio (10th wettest). Maryland (6th driest) was the only state that experienced a top-ten driest June.
U.S. Climate Extremes Index
NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June was about 6 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to the elevated 2010 value were large footprints of: extreme wetness (more than three times the average footprint), warm minimum temperatures ("warm overnight lows"), and areas experiencing heavy 1-day precipitation events.
U.S. tornadoes
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there were 387 preliminary tornado reports during June. If confirmed, this will be the second most active June on record, behind 1992. Minnesota had a particularly busy month with 67 preliminary tornado reports, besting the previous record of 35 tornadoes during June 2005.
The tropics are quiet
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. There is an area of disturbed weather off the coast of Costa Rica that is generating some heavy thunderstorm activity over the extreme Southwest Caribbean. This disturbance should move westward over Nicaragua and Honduras over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to Central America. NHC is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.![]()
Figure 3. My neighbor Tom Vance works to clear a fallen tree from the road so we can get out of our subdivision.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday at the latest. I may have trouble posting much this weekend, as a severe thunderstorm knocked out power to my neighborhood last night. I was watching the storm from my porch when the winds suddenly began gusting to 60 - 70 mph, and figured I'd better hustle inside when the huge black walnut tree in front of my house began thrashing like the Hogwarts whomping willow! Two neighbors had trees crash through their roofs, and downed power lines started several small fires.
Jeff Masters
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
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3301. 4Gaia
3:01 PM GMT on July 18, 20103300. IKE
2:19 PM GMT on July 18, 20103299. palmpt
2:15 PM GMT on July 18, 2010It has nothing to do with profit... They are going to burn half of it offshore. They are concerned about the pressure. No conspiracy...
3298. msgambler
2:03 PM GMT on July 18, 20103297. BahaHurican
2:02 PM GMT on July 18, 20103296. blsealevel
2:01 PM GMT on July 18, 20103295. earthlydragonfly
1:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2010If you take away BP's ability to make a profit then who will pay for the clean up? Tax payers? I'd rather BP stay in business and pay for the clean up.. If they go out of business the clean up will fall back on our government. You know the Mexican government wont pay for anything.
3292. sailingallover
1:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2010Dust from the SAL has been keeping the convection down. I have a blog on it from a couple weeks ago..
3291. CybrTeddy
1:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2010Probably one of the best this season so far emerging.
3289. TampaSpin
1:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2010YEP that needs watched very close....not much in Vorticity there showing up yet....but the spin seems to be just forming.....so look for Vorticity to pop up soon.
3288. sailingallover
1:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2010The ULL north of PR is forcast to move north leaving the area just to the North of PR DR with no shear by Wednesday. The wave is most likely not going to stay south although it may split over the Islands. I'd give a really good chance of an invest north of PR DR by Tuesday afternoon. There I am upcasting...
3287. OneDrop
1:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2010-Jane's Addiction 'Stop'
Here's hoping to fish storms and everyone's saftey when the Atlantic does POP
3286. TampaSpin
1:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2010Here is my forecast with all the reasoning posted on my WebSite with Why.....but, here was my Summary...
2010 Atlantic Tropical Forecast
Posted by TampaSpin on June 7, 2010 at 2:00 AM
Summary:
Based on my rating system and plugging the numbers together, my best estimate for the 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook is for:
70% chance of Above Average Conditions leading to
16 Named storms--the average is 9.6
10 Hurricanes--the average is 5.9
4 Major Hurricanes--the average is 2.3
I will enjoy hearing the debates of my thoughts and keep in mind these trends can change!
Thanks,
Tim
3285. extreme236
1:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2010There is stil high shear north of Hispanola that is not decreasing.
3282. SLU
1:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2010Thank you sir. I've been trying to explain this for days now.
3281. sailingallover
1:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2010Wathc the one at 5N 19W.. the one to the north is in dust
I generally AVOID climatology and long term forecasting..yes it show trends and is sometimes accurate but...
A 17+-20% prediction when the range is 10 to 25 is statistically so probable of occurring it is a joke to call it a prediction at all
3280. TampaSpin
1:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2010I hate to differ with you but,....Where! Anything South of Puerto Rico and the big islands is only 10kts of shear.....Where is the shear your referring too...Basically anything in the Caribbean is under only 10kts of Shear!
3279. blsealevel
1:38 PM GMT on July 18, 20103278. reedzone
1:37 PM GMT on July 18, 2010Ike is correct, the big blotch of high wind shear will keep this in check unless it moves south, which doesnt appear to be happening. NAM doesn't really show shear in their forecasts lol. Though conditions in the Atlantic have improved ALOT since last week. I'm looking for Bonnie either by the end of the week or next week.
3277. TampaSpin
1:37 PM GMT on July 18, 2010If we have this below average shear continue into the August and September months....WE ARE IN TROUBLE!
3275. hydrus
1:36 PM GMT on July 18, 20103273. IKE
1:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2010COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN GAIN STRENGTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THUS
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. IN FACT...THE LATEST TREND IS FOR
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW NO POPS STARTING FRIDAY ONWARD.
THE REAL HEADLINE THOUGH FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HEAVILY LEANS TOWARDS CLIMO...IS ALREADY
COMING IN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE
MOS IS PROBABLY CUTTING AT LEAST 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE RAW
NUMBERS. IF THIS SOLUTION HOLDS UP...THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH 100 OR HIGHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
FORECAST WISE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THAN MOS AS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GO ABOVE MOS IN
THE EXTENDED.
From New Orleans....
THE PATTERN WILL TURN HOTTER AND
DRIER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SPREADS WESTWARD AND ENVELOPES IN THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT MOST CONVECTION.
HAVE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS AS SOME LOCALIZED LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG ANY SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED CELL TO DEVELOP. WITH SINKING AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S AND HEAT INDICES RISING TO NEAR 105.
3272. reedzone
1:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2010I felt it was very important to note that again, this includes the new wave off of Africa, if it stays south, it will develop, conditions are favorable.
3271. CybrTeddy
1:30 PM GMT on July 18, 20103270. blsealevel
1:29 PM GMT on July 18, 20103269. all4hurricanes
1:29 PM GMT on July 18, 20103267. TampaSpin
1:28 PM GMT on July 18, 2010That thingy in the GOM is the LL spin i was referring to just South of the Western Tip of Cuba....needs watched very closely.....and there is no doubt in my opinion that we have our first true Cape Verde storm forming very soon that has emerged off the Coast of Africa but, that is harmless for only now.
3266. Dakster
1:28 PM GMT on July 18, 2010Thanks for raining on my good hopes...
And I just read an article from CNN that all of our satellites will have to be recalibrated as the upper layer of the Earth's atmosphere is contracting for unknown reasons...
3264. serialteg
1:25 PM GMT on July 18, 20103262. gordydunnot
1:25 PM GMT on July 18, 20103261. TampaSpin
1:24 PM GMT on July 18, 20103260. nrtiwlnvragn
1:24 PM GMT on July 18, 20103259. blsealevel
1:23 PM GMT on July 18, 20103258. extreme236
1:20 PM GMT on July 18, 20103257. AussieStorm
1:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2010I wouldn't be surprised if they cap the well... connect with the other well and continue as normal, and just filling the broken well.
3256. wunderkidcayman
1:18 PM GMT on July 18, 20103255. weatherguy03
1:18 PM GMT on July 18, 20103254. OneDrop
1:18 PM GMT on July 18, 2010I noticed that too and wondered how that was taken into account when modeling storm systems or forecasting tropical weather.
3252. TampaSpin
1:16 PM GMT on July 18, 20103251. sailingallover
1:12 PM GMT on July 18, 2010