Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
That is some great stuff right there....


sure would feel good about right now!
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
evening all!!! I cant believe that just a few months ago this is the weather we were experiencing here in Orlando Fl.

This is the picture that came to mind when I was looking at the tropics potential for the next week.



brrr your makeing me cold
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD-06E is not looking so good in the EPAC however. Very sickly in terms of convection thanks to shear hitting the circulation from the East.



yup too march wind shear
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Link

Intresting NASA site
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
evening all!!! I cant believe that just a few months ago this is the weather we were experiencing here in Orlando Fl.

This is the picture that came to mind when I was looking at the tropics potential for the next week.
That is some great stuff right there....
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Quoting Baltimorebird:





Admin plz re move this photo ASAP i dont even find that photo funny at all and that is a 24hr banned right there
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TD-06E is not looking so good in the EPAC however. Very sickly in terms of convection thanks to shear hitting the circulation from the East.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24173
evening all!!! I cant believe that just a few months ago this is the weather we were experiencing here in Orlando Fl.

This is the picture that came to mind when I was looking at the tropics potential for the next week.
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Chances are increasing for development in the Caribbean as we have the GFS parallel, NAM, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET showing at least a low pressure center developing. No model develops the wave out between the Caribbean and Africa.



Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24173
Quoting Grothar:


Shouldn't you be asleep? How you doing 09?
Sleeping? Hehehe, I don't go to sleep until 2 or 3AM everyday, I just leave the blog early. Things going good here, how about you?
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Quoting Baltimorebird:



poof
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Quoting hcubed:
Quoting BahaHurican:

"Grothar, there's something really off with this map that shows ALL of the land masses to the south and west of the Bahamas getting hit, but not the Bahamas...."

Could it have something to do with the forecast strength of the AB high? Maybe there won't be as much of a re-curve to storms this year?
I just want to know how the forecaster figured storms would get to the FL east coast without hitting the Bahamas first, that's all. Additionally, at least climatologically, it is relatively unlikely for a storm to hit PR, Hispaniola or Cuba without it going on to hit the Bahamas.

Actually that looks more like a map from 2008 landfalls, except for the missing Hanna...
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Quoting thewindman:
Wake me up in mid August when something is actually happening in tropics



ok its mid aung time too wake up
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I'm out folks. Will come back when there is something out there.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some rather strong upward motion moving in to the SW Caribbean.




that sould get thing going
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Wake me up in mid August when something is actually happening in tropics
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Quoting kmanislander:


Have you been deputised or something ?




am Admin little help
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1158. viman
Who's got Taz in a Raz tonight....
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Quoting Baltimorebird:





re ported
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening everyone!
hey
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Quoting Drakoen:
MJO associated moisture working its way into the Caribbean. Convection piling up in the southern Caribbean, the area to watch over the next couple of days for tropical cyclone development.

Some rather strong upward motion moving in to the SW Caribbean.

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1154. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:



that map olny updates evere 8hrs so that map is 8hrs old


Happy now Taz. LOL Here's a newer one.


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Quoting Tazmanian:
Admin plz re move the photo of jfv it dos not go with the blog


Have you been deputised or something ?
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Quoting kmanislander:


It is time stamped 00 UTC, or about 3 hours ago.



3hrs is still kind of old
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1150. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP062010
3:00 AM UTC July 15 2010
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression SIX (1006 hPa) located at 15.2N 107.7W or 300 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.2N 110.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 17.1N 114.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.5N 118.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45599
Admin plz re move the photo of jfv it dos not go with the blog
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1148. hcubed
Quoting BahaHurican:

"Grothar, there's something really off with this map that shows ALL of the land masses to the south and west of the Bahamas getting hit, but not the Bahamas...."

Could it have something to do with the forecast strength of the AB high? Maybe there won't be as much of a re-curve to storms this year?
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1147. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:



that map olny updates evere 8hrs so that map is 8hrs old


Reminds me, I have to take my cholesterol medicine, every 8 hours. I'll just check the NOAA site for a reminder.
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1146. xcool
see
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that map olny updates evere 8hrs so that map is 8hrs old


It is time stamped 00 UTC, or about 3 hours ago.
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and some day i will be come Admin
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1143. Drakoen
MJO associated moisture working its way into the Caribbean. Convection piling up in the southern Caribbean, the area to watch over the next couple of days for tropical cyclone development.

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Quoting Baltimorebird:
Is that like Santa's little helper?



yup
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Quoting Grothar:


It is trying hard:







that map olny updates evere 8hrs so that map is 8hrs old
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1139. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening everyone!


Shouldn't you be asleep? How you doing 09?
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Quoting Grothar:


I tried to move them all away from you. Doesnt that make you happy? I don't know, I post em, I don't write em.
Hmmph. I was just thinking it was sloppy graphics....
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am the Admin little helper
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1136. Grothar
Quoting Jeff9641:
This wave at 30W 10N is looking like it wants to be somebody.


It is trying hard:




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Good evening everyone!
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1130:

LOL! The thing that I find disturbing is the can of 'AXE' on the shelf. That brings up thoughts of... (shudder to think about it.)
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Quoting Baltimorebird:
Tropics are heating up. We need protection.




in joy the 24hr bannd for off key photos
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Nope stearing current are WNW toward the Bahamas then FL. GFS shows this very well. Look at the models.
If it's still a wave, WNW would take it to about where I mentioned. Northern end, given the size of this wave, would indeed be in the Bahamas. (it's only about 600 miles from JA to the Nrn Bahamas.) And all of that would be WNW.

Course if it spins up, unfortunately it's MUCH more likely to be over the Bahamas :o(
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Quoting Baltimorebird:
Tropics are heating up. We need protection.





re ported
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1128. Grothar
All of the models are showing a strong high and a big wave over Western Africa at 144 hours.



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1127. xcool
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.