Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1226. xcool
tropical come TO LIFE
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Quoting hunkerdown:
back at ya there, bub

I'll second that!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thank you! The constant bickering of 24 hour bans and admin removing pictures is bothersome.



yes it is 09 may be this wave will put a end too that
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Quoting hunkerdown:
true, its actually the ones with good bones that quietly move their way west and then roar to life when the conditions are right and nobody is expecting it.


ie. 2004 Charley
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Quoting Tazmanian:
1213. hunkerdown 3:20 AM GMT on July 15, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
we come on here too find weather info not pohots that dos not have any thing too do with the weather


if you want too do that do it on your own blog not here on the main blog

Taz its enough, your constant comments are as bad as Bird's photos. You stated your peace, now please let it go...




poof
back at ya there, bub
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nop
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tropical wave near 30˚W.


Interesting. Environment doesn't seem bad for it right now.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


African waves dont have to rapidly develop to be major problems
true, its actually the ones with good bones that quietly move their way west and then roar to life when the conditions are right and nobody is expecting it.
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1217. Drakoen
It is embedded within a deep moisture maximum.
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Quoting beell:


Course it's just a model run a week out but under somewhat of an anticyclone till it gets near the islands. Then maybe a little shear-y.

18Z GFS Parallel
Valid Wednesday, July 21st - 12Z


Link

18z GFS 200-850mb vertical shear shows an anticyclone moving in tandem with the wave.

168 hours.
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well it looks like the fun is overe where back too the Tropics
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Quoting stormhank:
I feel all these potent waves are moistening up the eastern atlantic..so only a matter of time before they come off africa and develop rapidly


African waves dont have to rapidly develop to be major problems
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1209. beell
Quoting Drakoen:
NICE LOOKING WAVE ALONG 30W THIS EVENING IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN
ALONG THE WAVE AND THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH NO SAHARAN DUST AROUND. I REALLY LIKE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OR
TPC/NHC SUGGEST TC DEVELOPMENT.
SSTS CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS AND
MJO ANALYSIS INDICATE FVRBL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC ATTM. HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS HAVE THIS WAVE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
(60W) BY 12Z WED JUL 21.

NWS San Juan


Course it's just a model run a week out but under somewhat of an anticyclone till it gets near the islands. Then maybe a little shear-y.

18Z GFS Parallel
Valid Wednesday, July 21st - 12Z


Link

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Quoting stormhank:
I feel all these potent waves are moistening up the eastern atlantic..so only a matter of time before they come off africa and develop rapidly




thats not good
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Personally, I'd like to see an ASCAT pass of the CV wave.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting Grothar:


Is that taken from one of my globes???
Yup! LOL.
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1205. Drakoen
Interesting wave indeed with a couple of things to note: the obvious broad lower to mid level cyclonic circulation and SAL advecting due west uninhibiting the wave.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... I was just thinking how great it is that I'm never likely to be able to step out of my door here and take a photo like that... Don't mind travelling to cold spot, but I like home to stay warm.


Hey I love having the few cold days that we have here ... Dont have that many .. This year was the exception..

Thanks a lot for the kind comment on my photo.
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we may have 97L be for the weekend is out
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1202. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tropical wave near 30�W.



Is that taken from one of my globes???
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I feel all these potent waves are moistening up the eastern atlantic..so only a matter of time before they come off africa and develop rapidly
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1200. SLU


I can't find too many negative factors preventing this from strengthening further at least in the short term.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting wave indeed with a couple of things to note: the obvious broad lower to mid level cyclonic circulation advecting due west uninhibiting the wave.



looks like we have some in too watch
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1198. Drakoen
Interesting wave indeed with a couple of things to note: the obvious broad lower to mid level cyclonic circulation advecting due west uninhibiting the wave.
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Quoting Drakoen:
NICE LOOKING WAVE ALONG 30W THIS EVENING IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN
ALONG THE WAVE AND THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH NO SAHARAN DUST AROUND. I REALLY LIKE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OR
TPC/NHC SUGGEST TC DEVELOPMENT.
SSTS CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS AND
MJO ANALYSIS INDICATE FVRBL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC ATTM. HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS HAVE THIS WAVE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
(60W) BY 12Z WED JUL 21.

NWS San Juan


That is a very interesting excerpt from the San Juan discussion.
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Tropical wave near 30W.

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


sure would feel good about right now!
LOL... I was just thinking how great it is that I'm never likely to be able to step out of my door here and take a photo like that... Don't mind travelling to cold spot, but I like home to stay warm.
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Quoting stormhank:
Im afraid our quiet time in the tropics maybe ending soon


This will probably be our last week of tranquility.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
its nevere slow there all ways some in too watch
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1190. Drakoen
Quoting beell:
.

Couple things going on there for sure. A monsoonal type gyre thing over Central America and a fairly deep inverted trough now over Florida drifting west across the gulf.

Maybe one negative would be a continuation of continental air subsiding over at least part of the GOM-from the upper ridge over TX. But west of the TUTT base anyway.

Could be informative to see how much convection the inverted trough can build and hold.


Yea. Interesting synoptics for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
NICE LOOKING WAVE ALONG 30W THIS EVENING IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN
ALONG THE WAVE AND THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH NO SAHARAN DUST AROUND. I REALLY LIKE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OR
TPC/NHC SUGGEST TC DEVELOPMENT.
SSTS CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS AND
MJO ANALYSIS INDICATE FVRBL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC ATTM. HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS HAVE THIS WAVE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
(60W) BY 12Z WED JUL 21.

NWS San Juan




This wave is the same wave the ECMWF was developing before killing it off, same with the GFS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Im afraid our quiet time in the tropics maybe ending soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
evening all!!! I cant believe that just a few months ago this is the weather we were experiencing here in Orlando Fl.

This is the picture that came to mind when I was looking at the tropics potential for the next week.


What an awesome pic! I remember this well.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Baltimore what the heck is your problem kid? Seriously, go away or grow up. Hope StSimons didn't see that.



tell me about it if he keeps going like this he will get a 24hr banned
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1183. Patrap
Iz there a Eye Dr. in da haus..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting Drakoen:
NICE LOOKING WAVE ALONG 30W THIS EVENING IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN
ALONG THE WAVE AND THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH NO SAHARAN DUST AROUND. I REALLY LIKE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OR
TPC/NHC SUGGEST TC DEVELOPMENT.
SSTS CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS AND
MJO ANALYSIS INDICATE FVRBL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC ATTM. HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS HAVE THIS WAVE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
(60W) BY 12Z WED JUL 21.

NWS San Juan



cool
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1181. beell
.
Quoting Drakoen:
MJO associated moisture working its way into the Caribbean. Convection piling up in the southern Caribbean, the area to watch over the next couple of days for tropical cyclone development.



Couple things going on there for sure. A monsoonal type gyre thing over Central America and a fairly deep inverted trough now over Florida drifting west across the gulf.

Maybe one negative would be a continuation of continental air subsiding over at least part of the GOM-from the upper ridge over TX. But west of the TUTT base anyway.

Could be informative to see how much convection the inverted trough can build and hold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Baltimore what the heck is your problem kid? Seriously, go away or grow up. Hope StSimons didn't see that.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting Baltimorebird:


Sorry did not mean to offend.



Is that better?



re ported you are posting photos that dont have any thing too do with the weather thats the 3dr one i have re ported
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1178. Drakoen
NICE LOOKING WAVE ALONG 30W THIS EVENING IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN
ALONG THE WAVE AND THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH NO SAHARAN DUST AROUND. I REALLY LIKE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OR
TPC/NHC SUGGEST TC DEVELOPMENT.
SSTS CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS AND
MJO ANALYSIS INDICATE FVRBL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC ATTM. HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS HAVE THIS WAVE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
(60W) BY 12Z WED JUL 21.

NWS San Juan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
La Nina conditions are now truly in effect. Shear is below average in the Atlantic with higher SST's while shear is increasing in the Eastern Pacific. TD-06E needs to move away from the shear for any further development to take place. TD-06E might die before reaching TS status if it can't get any convection tonight.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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