Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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hey Drakoen look to where i have under line in the bold


Niño 4 -0.4ºC

Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC

Niño 3 -1.0ºC

Niño1+2 -1.3ºC
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Quoting xcool:
NO Computer models supports on this wave at 30w hmm


Developments without supports are scary stuffs, they just show how tropical weather can be unstable and unpredictable.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
OMG what the hell has happened on the LIVE OIL FEEDS from BP.......the OIL IS NOW 10 times worse it seems.....OMG!
I hear ya. I has just logged onto the CNN live feed before you posted that and it looks like there was a major blowout, as you said, worse than ever...
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Quoting SLU:
Models are vital but we should not always make ourselves virtual slaves to them. I've seen systems pop-up from nowhere with little computer model backing. MH Felix is a great example of how poor computer models can be at initialising systems. When Felix was strengthening into a cat. 5, the GFS barely had much of windshift as it's representation of the system and it only caught up with the system later on.

So even if there's very little development shown by the computer models now, when you look at the pattern you just know something's going to happen very soon.



Agreed, Model tend to do a much better job with predictions of where a storm will go and intensify than they do with developing storms. IMO
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1271. Drakoen
Have to figure out why the models don't show development.
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And the wave train keeps on rollin'.
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Quoting stormhank:
was lookin at Dr Masters blog today,,his SST anmaly map shows warm atlantic SSts n the pacific's look more like winter temps than summer...I guess La Nina is really taking hold



yup this week update



The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.4ºC

Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC

Niño 3 -1.0ºC

Niño1+2 -1.3ºC



we may have a vary strong one by fall if this keeps droping like it is
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.
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1265. SLU
Models are vital but we should not always make ourselves virtual slaves to them. I've seen systems pop-up from nowhere with little computer model backing. MH Felix is a great example of how poor computer models can be at initialising systems. When Felix was strengthening into a cat. 5, the GFS barely had much of windshift as it's representation of the system and it only caught up with the system later on.

So even if there's very little development shown by the computer models now, when you look at the pattern you just know something's going to happen very soon.

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1264. xcool
NO Computer models supports on this wave at 30w hmm
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That is true, reminds me of what Drak said in 2008.. 'the GFS is not the gospel', same with the ECMWF.


Glad to have "blogger supports"! lol
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big wave here..
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Quoting StormW:


Total Precipitable Water


ty Chief caster
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Earlier this evening i tried to turn your eyes on this system, now it looks like it is getting the attention it deserves. Computer models aren't god and things can surpise us even with no model supports...


That is true, reminds me of what Drak said in 2008.. 'the GFS is not the gospel', same with the ECMWF.
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1258. JRRP
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Quoting Grothar:
What affect does anyone think the ULL to the NW of the waves will have upon them. It looks like it is dropping a little SE.

It actually looks to be dropping due south (maybe expanding to give the looks of southeast)...I believe this is forecast to slide off to the southwest. I am sure I will be corrected if I am wrong.
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was lookin at Dr Masters blog today,,his SST anmaly map shows warm atlantic SSts n the pacific's look more like winter temps than summer...I guess La Nina is really taking hold
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Quoting Drakoen:


Just east of 30W look closer.


I posted a coment about two hrs ago... about this wave. Lets see how models handle this out!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Sorry, my wireless was terribly slow today. Difficult to keep.


I forgive you, that's not your fault =)
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


What is the actually a composite of? Water vapor? heat?
These images of derived products have been generated from the GOES-East and GOES-West sounder data using the physical retrieval method. The product displayed is the total atmospheric precipitable water vapor value. (Precipitable water is the amount of liquid water, in millimeters, if all the atmospheric water vapor in the column is condensed.) The value is color-coded with browns being the driest and reds being the most moist. Clouds are represented as a gray color (see the color bar at the bottom of the image). A time sequence of the images is the best way to monitor drying and moistening trends.
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Quoting stormhank:
hey eartly,,saw your earlier winter photo..Im from florida panhandle area and we got an inch of snow here had to beleive considering we're havin heat indices of 110 now


I hear ya this is the hottest june i can remember. we have set many records here.
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Finally a couple AOIs to keep our eyes on.
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1248. Patrap


BP says test on cap now under way

BP allayed last-minute government fears of making the disaster worse and started trying to slowly choke off the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, in the hope of finally stopping the leak.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129403
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You can see it better here. Some broad cyclonic rotation is somewhat evident towards the end of the loop near 35˚W too.



What is the actually a composite of? Water vapor? heat?
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Quoting Drakoen:


No, east of 30W around 10N.
Yup, I see it too now.
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1245. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I see it, but are you talking about the rotation near 20˚N?


No, east of 30W around 10N.
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1244. Grothar
What affect does anyone think the ULL to the NW of the waves will have upon them. It looks like it is dropping a little SE.

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Quoting Drakoen:


Just east of 30W look closer.
I see it, but are you talking about the rotation near 20˚N?
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oups sorry for the double post
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


ie. 2004 Charley
hey eartly,,saw your earlier winter photo..Im from florida panhandle area and we got an inch of snow here had to beleive considering we're havin heat indices of 110 now
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1237. Drakoen
Quoting CaribBoy:


Earlier this evening i tried to turn your eyes on this system, now it looks like it is getting the attention it deserves. Computer models aren't god and things can surpise us even with no model supports...


Sorry, my wireless was terribly slow today. Difficult to keep.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Earlier this evening i tried to turn your eyes on this system, now it looks like it is getting the attention it deserves. Computer models aren't God and things can surprise us even with no model supports...
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1235. xcool
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1234. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You can see it better here. Some broad cyclonic rotation is somewhat evident towards the end of the loop near 35˚W too.



Just east of 30W look closer.
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Quoting Drakoen:
NICE LOOKING WAVE ALONG 30W THIS EVENING IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN
ALONG THE WAVE AND THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH NO SAHARAN DUST AROUND. I REALLY LIKE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OR
TPC/NHC SUGGEST TC DEVELOPMENT.
SSTS CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS AND
MJO ANALYSIS INDICATE FVRBL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC ATTM. HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS HAVE THIS WAVE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
(60W) BY 12Z WED JUL 21.

NWS San Juan


Earlier this evening i tried to turn your eyes on this system, now it looks like it is getting the attention it deserves. Computer models aren't god and things can surpise us even with no model supports...
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1232. leo305
did the new oil cap explode and break apart? The oil is leaking out freely once again..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You can see it better here. Some broad cyclonic rotation is somewhat evident towards the end of the loop near 35˚W too.

you could see that last night in the same loop Drak posted.
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Fairly certain NHC won't mention the disturbance however unless its obvious its going to make a run for TD status within the next 72 hours, Its rare for a system to develop with no model support, even more rare for a CV wave. Its happened of course, but usually you'd want to see model support for a wave.
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Quoting Drakoen:
It is embedded within a deep moisture maximum.
You can see it better here. Some broad cyclonic rotation is somewhat evident towards the end of the loop near 35˚W too.

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1226. xcool
tropical come TO LIFE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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