Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:

im the one in the red shirt and that thing next to me a statue of tom landry in front of cowboys studium in arlington


Sweet! Cowboys are the best! Hubby's "Man Cave" is painted the official "Cowboy" paint colors. Took us forever to get the star right. Lol. :)
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The Weather Underground: Night shift.

12 am - 5 am. Pat's senior chief in Storm's absence,
TampaSpin's executive senior chief, Taz is senior meteorologist.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
1324. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
who is the guy in the red shirt standing next to you :)


LOL. Don't let him tease you bt. It is a great Avatar.
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1323. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONSON (T1002)
12:00 PM JST July 15 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In The South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Conson (990 hPa) located at 16.3N 114.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.1N 111.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 19.7N 110.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 21.0N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Pat-What is the pressure reading right now and how long until it starts going up?
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1321. Drakoen
Microwave pass suggesting broad cyclonic curvature generally along 30W around 10N.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


ty Chief caster
That's Senior Chief caster...
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Good night all, I'm falling asleep on my keyboard lol
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1318. JRRP
Quoting hunkerdown:
tx08, it cant be any better that JRRP's here :)

jejejeje
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1317. Patrap
Skandi_ROV 2

If you enlarge to Full screen this view..u can see the main Port shut and the choke valve spewing the Oil as it will be closed..s-l-o-w-l-y over the next day.

Everything rides on this test.

For Hundreds of Thousands of folks.

Why we dont have a BP Play by Play is beyond me.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
1316. JRRP
mmmmm when we had rapid transition Nio/Nia... La Nia has lasted 2 years
Link
1973
1998
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Earlier this evening i tried to turn your eyes on this system, now it looks like it is getting the attention it deserves. Computer models aren't god and things can surpise us even with no model supports...
We've been talking about this since before it came off the coast a couple-3 days ago...
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1313. Patrap
Quoting TampaSpin:



That makes sense MAYBE! I hope they don't screw this up or we may really be screwed!


Thats why they stopped the relief wells..one at 4 ft from the DWH Bore.

If they blow out the well or find its compromised..the releif wells may not work.

So the Integrity test is critical in many ways.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting Patrap:


No.

The procedure takes and cycles all 3 valves over 24-to 40 Hours,

Its a Normal thing...were seeing.

The pressures are just Higher as the diameter is smaller.

We want higher pressure..thats a good thing like 9000psi... if the Pressure suddenly falls.,below 4-5K


Thats a Bad thing..as it means the well is damaged deep.

..if the choke line can be closed..and they dont blow out the well casing below,

They could stop the flow...altogether


We will know Friday or sooner maybe.


So what your seeing is a good thing.



That makes sense MAYBE! I hope they don't screw this up or we may really be screwed!
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Quoting btwntx08:
i hope they approve my new avatar its pretty nice
who is the guy in the red shirt standing next to you :)
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Quoting JRRP:
Link
tx08, it cant be any better that JRRP's here :)
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Going to sleep, tomorow night will be a good one here. Lets see if we beat the models on this one! (CV wave).
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea those regions have really cooled and they are ahead of the Nino 3.4 region. The main concern is the Nino 3.4 region which has slipped into the La Nina threshold.




am looking forword too this comeing monday update on La Nina
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
1305. JRRP
Link
like 1998
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1303. xcool
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1302. Drakoen
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey Drakoen what you think of this



Yea those regions have really cooled and they are ahead of the Nino 3.4 region. The main concern is the Nino 3.4 region which has slipped into the La Nina threshold.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
1301. Patrap
Live feeds from the Gulf of Mexico ROVs
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
1300. Patrap
Quoting TampaSpin:


So the Chokeline is now made things worse and the chokeline comes out the side? I don't know......i do know i have never seen so much oil coming out before!!!


No.

The procedure takes and cycles all 3 valves over 24-to 40 Hours,

Its a Normal thing...were seeing.

The pressures are just Higher as the diameter is smaller.

We want higher pressure..thats a good thing like 9000psi... if the Pressure suddenly falls.,below 4-5K


Thats a Bad thing..as it means the well is damaged deep.

..if the choke line can be closed..and they dont blow out the well casing below,

They could stop the flow...altogether


We will know Friday or sooner maybe.


So what your seeing is a good thing.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
hey Drakoen what you think of this

Quoting Tazmanian:
hey Drakoen look to where i have under line in the bold


Niño 4 -0.4ºC

Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC

Niño 3 -1.0ºC

Niño1+2 -1.3ºC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
1296. SLU
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Agreed, Model tend to do a much better job with predictions of where a storm will go and intensify than they do with developing storms. IMO


Yeh what's most important with the models is to understand the patterns that they are showing and based on that decide whether or not conditions are good enough for development if a seedling appears. Remember, we've seen models develop big storms and when you look at the patterns they predict it makes no sense.
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1295. xcool
aribBoy true.
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1294. xcool
so guess two area to watch now sw cab & 30w .
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Quoting xcool:
dry air that why no Computer models supports imo


However its current environment is very moist and SAL doesnt appear to be a problem down the road towards the caribbean.
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Quoting Patrap:
There is no Blowout.

The Stack is under going a Integrity test and they closed the one valve and thats the choke line spewing ..




So the Chokeline is now made things worse and the chokeline comes out the side? I don't know......i do know i have never seen so much oil coming out before!!!
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1291. Drakoen
Quoting Patrap:


To da poles via da cyclones is the best route the Planet takes usually.

Esp Aug-October.

Itsa all really one Heat Pump,schmeet pump ya know



Exactly
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
1290. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:


The heat has to go somewhere


To da poles via da cyclones is the best route the Planet takes usually.

Esp Aug-October.

Itsa all really one Heat Pump,schmeet pump ya know

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Good night everyone!
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1287. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


That's a good question...you think maybe too much heat in the tropics?


The heat has to go somewhere
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Looks like the CAP may have exploded out the side from the pressure...THAT IS JUST GREAT!......MAY BE WRONG BUT THAT SURE APPEARS TO BE THE CASE!
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1284. xcool
tropical weather, plz
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1283. Patrap


BP says test on cap now under way

BP allayed last-minute government fears of making the disaster worse and started trying to slowly choke off the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, in the hope of finally stopping the leak.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
1281. Patrap
There is no Blowout.

The Stack is under going a Integrity test and they closed the one valve and thats the choke line spewing ..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Agreed, Model tend to do a much better job with predictions of where a storm will go and intensify than they do with developing storms. IMO


I Been following storms for a few years and thats is the reality.
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1279. xcool
dry air that why no Computer models supports imo
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1278. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
It actually looks to be dropping due south (maybe expanding to give the looks of southeast)...I believe this is forecast to slide off to the southwest. I am sure I will be corrected if I am wrong.


You know you will!
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hey Drakoen look to where i have under line in the bold


Niño 4 -0.4ºC

Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC

Niño 3 -1.0ºC

Niño1+2 -1.3ºC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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