Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1373. xcool
;0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1372. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


We had some good days, eh Pat. And it is Mack-Ol. From a full bird.


Indeed..

Semper Fi.



ska'l
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1371. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


I made it to Staff Sergent..then there was that Tromso,..thing in Spring 84 at TEAMWORK 84.

Messy.

West Germans,..Canadians..Beer,Mack-O.

Fight.

.."office Hours".

Washdown in Portsmouth, England as prescribed by a Lite Col..

U know how it goes.


We had some good days, eh Pat. And it is Mack-ØL. From a full bird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


That's all you got up to? You mean I have been fraternizing with an enlisted man?? LOL


lol
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Quoting Patrap:
Nite all.

Im gonna go cuss BP from Upstairs and watch Ferguson..

.."Tomorrow's just the future, yesterday"..



Same here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hey Tex. :) Well in our last house I had Cowboy decor in my bedroom. And it clashed EVERYTHING! Told him he needed to be a Redskins or 49ers fan because my favorite colors are red and gold. He did not like that comment at all. Lol. So I figured it would just be easier to give him the extra room this time. Lol.


:) - well, I happen to like the Cowboys and the colors so I'm cool with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Live feeds from the Gulf of Mexico ROVs


This is BS.

BOP has cut all the feeds save for the 2.
I dont like it.

The feds should have a Nice female BP voice telling us every frigging thing from the Engineering Consoles.

Why they dont...

Im gonna write a scathing entry by morn.

U betcha...



Its BP pat, what do you expect from the company who's owner said '..I want my life back.'
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
1364. Patrap
Nite all.

Im gonna go cuss BP from Upstairs and watch Ferguson..

.."Tomorrow's just the future, yesterday"..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1363. will45
Quoting Patrap:


Dem things were like Corks..

I dug um being a NOLA Boat rat.

LOL


lo yea the flat bottom we took a lot of beatings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1362. Patrap
Quoting will45:
I was First Mate on an LCU Pat we unloaded a lot of you guys at Mile Hammock Bay lol


Dem things were like Corks..

I dug um being a NOLA Boat rat.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1361. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


That's all you got up to? You mean I have been fraternizing with an enlisted man?? LOL


I made it to Staff Sergent..then there was that Tromso,..thing in Spring 84 at TEAMWORK 84.

Messy.

West Germans,..Canadians..Beer,Mack-O.

Fight.

.."office Hours".

Washdown in Portsmouth, England as prescribed by a Lite Col..

U know how it goes.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1360. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The one at 30W has a nice moist envelope but the one ahead is dry XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1359. will45
I was First Mate on an LCU Pat we unloaded a lot of you guys at Mile Hammock Bay lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1358. Patrap
Live feeds from the Gulf of Mexico ROVs


This is BS.

BOP has cut all the feeds save for the 2.
I dont like it.

The feds should have a Nice female BP voice telling us every frigging thing from the Engineering Consoles.

Why they dont...

Im gonna write a scathing entry by morn.

U betcha...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1357. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


I was a Jarhead.


So Im more of a E-4 Cpl one could say...as the DD-214 does.


That's all you got up to? You mean I have been fraternizing with an enlisted man?? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi all.....my son wants his room painted that way. Will be interesting to do I'm sure... :)


Hey Tex. :) Well in our last house I had Cowboy decor in my bedroom. And it clashed EVERYTHING! Told him he needed to be a Redskins or 49ers fan because my favorite colors are red and gold. He did not like that comment at all. Lol. So I figured it would just be easier to give him the extra room this time. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Correct me if I'm wrong but is that spiral banding trying to set up? Getting kinda buggy eyed if you know I mean.. kinda confused.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
1354. 7544
looks like the 30 w wave might blow at dmax tonight
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting Patrap:




Taz..50 more for off topic


Always love R. Lee Ermy, especially on Mail Call.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
1351. will45
Quoting Patrap:


Im always out-ranked easily.

AF or Army ?

But as a enlisted dude,..we had the Mojo always.





Army. yea we had da MOJO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1350. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We'll promote you to WU's E-7, we need someone to call out the trolls and make 'em PT.




Taz..50 more for off topic
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1349. Patrap
Quoting will45:


E_7 SFC here hee hee


Im always out-ranked easily.

AF or Army ?

But as a enlisted dude,..we had the Mojo always.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Quoting Patrap:


I was a Jarhead.


So Im more of a E-4 Cpl one could say...as the DD-214 does.


We'll promote you to WU's E-7, we need someone to call out the trolls and make 'em PT.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
1347. xcool
CybrTeddy LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1346. will45
Quoting Patrap:


I was a Jarhead.


So Im more of a E-4 Cpl one could say...as the DD-214 does.
Quoting Patrap:


I was a Jarhead.


So Im more of a E-4 Cpl one could say...as the DD-214 does.


E_7 SFC here hee hee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1345. Patrap

I did my time long ago.

Im a freelance observer at best.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Sweet! Cowboys are the best! Hubby's "Man Cave" is painted the official "Cowboy" paint colors. Took us forever to get the star right. Lol. :)


Hi all.....my son wants his room painted that way. Will be interesting to do I'm sure... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
night folks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night shift staff, chain of command..
1) Patrap, senior chief exec.. sir.
2) TampaSpin, junior chief exec
3) Taz, senior meteorologist.
4) xcool, junior meteorologist.
5) earthlydragonfly 'image-caster'
6) Myself, head-on supplier.
7) Grothar, Desk lacky.
8) Drak, gives out the popcorn.

Lotta crazy stuff happens on the night shift.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
B4 ya'll assign me a rank, I'm outta here... see u guys in the a.m. Should b interesting to see what happens w/ our Twaves overnight...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS parallel 00z continues to indicate cyclogenesis in the southern Caribbean:



Operational tried to:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1338. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


big picture as of 12 minutes ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS parallel 00z continues to indicate cyclogenesis in the southern Caribbean:



Good moisture there too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1336. xcool
impressive 30W
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Snow falls finally kick-starts ski season


Ski fields in the Snowy Mountains south of Canberra have experienced heavy snow falls.

Weather forecaster Sean Carson says the snow falls have come after a slow start to the season.

"They've backed that up now with 37 centimetres of snow in the past 24 hours," he said.

"Finally the ski season might really start to kick off now with a bit of luck and a little bit more snow coming their way on Monday so hopefully it's turned the corner for them as well."

The Bureau of Meteorology says Canberra has already exceeded its average July rainfall, with falls of up to 60 millimetres in the past 36 hours.
© ABC 2010
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


lol

I'll be image-caster
LOL Pity Storm logged off b4 he saw that....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1333. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The Weather Underground: Night shift.

12 am - 5 am. Pat's senior chief in Storm's absence,
TampaSpin's executive senior chief, Taz is senior meteorologist.


I was a Jarhead.


So Im more of a E-4 Cpl one could say...as the DD-214 does.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1332. JRRP
good night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1331. Drakoen
GFS parallel 00z continues to indicate cyclogenesis in the southern Caribbean:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
1330. Patrap
Quoting 850Realtor:
Pat-What is the pressure reading right now and how long until it starts going up?


Dunno..
the SOB's cut that ROV feed and I dont savvy their idiotic logic atall sometimes.

Which is most the time. They could have done this a month ago.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
1329. xcool
97L MAYBE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's Senior Chief caster...


lol

I'll be image-caster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
We've been talking about this since before it came off the coast a couple-3 days ago...


Yeah and a week ago the long range GFS was showing a low with plenty of moisture crossing the northern lesser antilles or just north of them on july 21 (!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

im the one in the red shirt and that thing next to me a statue of tom landry in front of cowboys studium in arlington


Sweet! Cowboys are the best! Hubby's "Man Cave" is painted the official "Cowboy" paint colors. Took us forever to get the star right. Lol. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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