Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1426. scott39
The wave behind 30W looks like a player too!
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1425. xcool
scott39 yeah
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1424. scott39
30W looks like trouble down the road.
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1423. xcool
nhc sleep on job.
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1422. xcool
sunset .
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Sunrise, sunset.. they tend to blur at 2AM.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

As I expected, no mention of anything on the TWO.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, I was going to use 'women' instead of 'politician', I didn't want to get in trouble though.


;)
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1419. scott39
Quoting Skyepony:


Yes, not only the sst temps running high.. other areas, especially the WPAC where there is usually a high number of storms is well behind. If one area has less than expected usually another has more. La Nina should inhibit EPAC. Arabian sea has been active but land inhibits alot of ACE being spent there. ITCZ just needs to come up a little with the season..
Thanks, Do you have any idea how many hurricanes will effect the USA? Your rough estimate of course.
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1418. xcool
CybrTeddy I HAVE PIC .LET ME FIND IT
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Quoting xcool:
Saharan Air Layer Analysis MAKE Beautiful SUNSET ;)!!!!!


You print out a piece of paper of the SAL analysis and hold it up to the sun at 6AM?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
1415. xcool
WAIT ON ECMWF,
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1414. xcool
Saharan Air Layer Analysis MAKE Beautiful SUNSET ;)!!!!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


XD

Nice.


Well, I was going to use 'women' instead of 'politician', I didn't want to get in trouble though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
Quoting xcool:
GFS & CMC SHOWS STORM IN SW CAB


ECMWF, GFS (parallel and original), NAM, UKMET, CMC, and NOGAPS show a system in the SW Caribbean in a about 50-60 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
1411. Skyepony (Mod)
There's 00zcmc.. drowns central America with the CS Caribbean system. Poor Central America..While the ENSO water temps fall the flow goes Westho & they get it all..

Has the 30W wave just beginning to pull together just north of the islands at the end of the run.
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1410. Grothar
All kidding aside, those systems over central Africa are very impressive for this time of year. Last post of the time. I am putting my globes to rest until tomorrow.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hurricanes are like politicians: when they come they are dangerous, powerful, and exciting, but when they leave they take your house and car.


XD

Nice.
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1408. xcool
GFS & CMC SHOWS STORM IN SW CAB




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1407. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Once it hits 50W, stuff hits the fan in here no matter if its a CV major Hurricane or an African fart gliding across the Atlantic.


Your command of the English language and your extensive descriptive metaphors have never ceased to amaze me. LOL
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1406. scott39
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This is what we're looking at with SW Caribbean development from reliable to least reliable.

ECMWF develops a low on the most recent run, but nothing too organized. Obviously, its showing something.

GFS Parallel develops a system in the SW Caribbean, same with the original GFS although weaker.

NOGAPS develops a system in the SW Caribbean.

UKMET shows something similar to the ECMWF, a low in the SW Caribbean but nothing too organized.

CMC doesn't show anything on the most recent run.
Which wave are the models hinting at?
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Hurricanes are like politicians: when they come they are dangerous, powerful, and exciting, but when they leave they take your house and car.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
1404. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting scott39:
Looks like the water is hot? Since im not a Met and dont understand everything,does the pot of enviromental stew look like were soon headed into the above average forecast for this season?


Yes, not only the sst temps running high.. other areas, especially the WPAC where there is usually a high number of storms is well behind. If one area has less than expected usually another has more. La Nina should inhibit EPAC. Arabian sea has been active but land inhibits alot of ACE being spent there. ITCZ just needs to come up a little with the season..
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1403. xcool
scott39 hey :0
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1402. scott39
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This is what we're looking at with SW Caribbean development from reliable to least reliable.

ECMWF develops a low on the most recent run, but nothing too organized. Obviously, its showing something.

GFS Parallel develops a system in the SW Caribbean, same with the original GFS although weaker.

NOGAPS develops a system in the SW Caribbean.

UKMET shows something similar to the ECMWF, a low in the SW Caribbean but nothing too organized.

CMC doesn't show anything on the most recent run.
Since the CMC shows nothing, that probably means something will develope.
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1401. scott39
Quoting xcool:


crazy Lightning
Hey cool-- Thats cool
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This is what we're looking at with SW Caribbean development from reliable to least reliable.

ECMWF develops a low on the most recent run, but nothing too organized. Obviously, its showing something.

GFS Parallel develops a system in the SW Caribbean, same with the original GFS although weaker.

NOGAPS develops a system in the SW Caribbean.

UKMET shows something similar to the ECMWF, a low in the SW Caribbean but nothing too organized.

CMC doesn't show anything on the most recent run.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
1399. xcool


crazy Lightning
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1398. Skyepony (Mod)
slumming the news.. oil hit the bird nesting area in LA.. WI severe storms..Yay..no body died. Drought killed a huge % of Vietnam's rice. China is faced with worst flooding in years from Conson.
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1397. scott39
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Once it hits 50W, stuff hits the fan in here no matter if its a CV major Hurricane or an African fart gliding across the Atlantic.
That has to smell Nasty!
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Quoting Grothar:
Even though this images is 7 minutes old. I think it will do. Wave has a little spin to it, but nothing to worry about about yet. It will be in very hostile conditions soon. I don't mean the atmosphere, I mean the blog!!



Once it hits 50W, stuff hits the fan in here no matter if its a CV major Hurricane or an African fart gliding across the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
1395. Halyn
I read earlier about the record heat in Europe .. that along with Japan's problems and the 'shared magma" thing going on in Iceland makes a person kinda wonder what will happen next. I have always been fascinated by storms .. was raised in Norman, Oklahoma. Now I'm just a great-grandma who watches this blog and enjoys it very much! Maybe next time around I'll major in something other than Psychology .. lol. Thank you all for many hours of mental stimulation and .. laughter .. :)
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1394. xcool
lol
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1393. scott39
Quoting Skyepony:
GISS June temps are out for the N Hemisphere. 2010 takes hottest with a 104 beating out '05 & '06 ..97 & 95. That is 1.04ºC warmer than average for June using the base period:1951-1980.

Looks like the water is hot? Since im not a Met and dont understand everything,does the pot of enviromental stew look like were soon headed into the above average forecast for this season?
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1392. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
wait on cmc


I'm trying..zzzz
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1391. Skyepony (Mod)
30W has a little lightning associated with it.
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1389. xcool
wait on cmc
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1388. Skyepony (Mod)
Japan has had some extreme weather. 30000 evacuated for mudslide fears..
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1387. Grothar
Even though this images is 7 minutes old. I think it will do. Wave has a little spin to it, but nothing to worry about about yet. It will be in very hostile conditions soon. I don't mean the atmosphere, I mean the blog!!

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1386. Patrap
From accuweather.com



Russia Suffers Severe Heat, Drought
Jul 14, 2010; 5:26 AM ET




Severe heat, made worse in areas by drought, has already gripped a wide swath of the Russian heartland since the first of summer, and prospects are for even more of the abnormal heat.

Health, water supply and crops have all taken a hit in many areas.

Average temperatures for the summer so far have been at least 10 F above normal between the western borders and the Ural Mountains. Moscow, for instance, has tallied more than 10 F above normal has of July 13. In Saint Petersburg, the average temperature since the start of summer has been almost 12 F above normal.

Readings as high as 92 F in Moscow and 90 F in Saint Petersburg have broken records.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1384. Skyepony (Mod)
Weather forecasters have issued extremely hot weather warnings for seven western European countries this week, with the heatwave potentially straining electricity supplies as air conditioning use soars. Eumetnet, the public European weather services network within the World Meteorological Organization, has issued severe hot weather warnings for most of Spain, the western half of Germany, most of Belgium and parts of the Netherlands. Temperatures in Berlin are expected remain at highs of 35-36 degrees Celsius until Monday, before cooling slightly in the middle of next week, according Germany's national forecaster, while Madrid is melting at highs of 40 degrees on Thursday, according to Spain's official forecaster, with highs of over 34 degrees into next week. Western Europe has not seen a prolonged heatwave since 2006, when sizzling temperatures caused cooling problems for some power plants. River and cooling reservoir temperatures rose so much that environmental legislation prevented the plants from warming the water up any more. A more severe and prolonged heatwave in 2003 saw more power plants in France and Germany shut down as air conditioning use surged.
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1383. xcool
wave at 30w & sw cab keep eye on
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1382. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed..

Semper Fi.



ska'l


Semper fi og skål til deg! (Actually that rhymes. Let a few old veterans get off topic for a minute. We can actually talk about how cold it was there if you want. We'll be done in a second and get back to the waves.
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if already posted sorry. was looking at the circle of barbs at around 40w I think. May be our wave?

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1380. Skyepony (Mod)
GISS June temps are out for the N Hemisphere. 2010 takes hottest with a 104 beating out '05 & '06 ..97 & 95. That is 1.04ºC warmer than average for June using the base period:1951-1980.

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1379. Halyn
From the St. Louis area .. at 11:55pm

84 degrees
80% Humidity
78 degree dewpoint
96 degree Heat Index .. we hit 106 earlier in the day ..

All this and not a palm tree in sight .. :(
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1378. xcool



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1377. scott39
Quoting weatherman12345:

how are environmental conditions around the system, SAL could be a problem
I dont think SAL Will be a problem as long as it doesnt start climbing N any time soon. these waves are moistening up the enviroment and SAL is retreating N. Its just a matter of time before we are tracking a Cape Verde storm. IMHO
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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