Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 76 - 26

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

76. IKE
Quoting angiest:


So long as Al isn't overexposed...


LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting angiest:


So long as Al isn't overexposed...
Who is that? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Best part is, her prediction of a powerful hurricane hitting Galveston came true a few months later :p.


Yeah but not the regeneration and hitting NYC.

Dr. Lyons actually came close, since Ike could easily have gone a little further north and hit Florida and then proceeded to Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
72. IKE
Quoting scott39:
I meant hurricanes.


Irene was at 105 mph....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
58:huh she did predicting a storm hitting galveston which it came true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...2006 was noted for the severe dust in June and July.


Which NASA researchers later learned that the main reason for a below average season was the presence of EL-Nino come late July. The dust did have a impact but minimal at best. Posted the NASA link on the previous blog.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting DestinJeff:
.
That was fast....lol! You forgot P.E. lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


They shouldn't have allowed her scenario to be put on air. Makes her look like a complete fool.

Of course that show was hosted by Jim Cantore who is over exposed on TWC.


So long as Al isn't overexposed...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can you guys imagine half of the blog working for the weather channel it would be funny everyone disagreeing on a storms track and intensity i would die laughing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
O Lordy.

Troll-casting?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is a classic Stefanie Abrams moment from 2008:

People eat this crap up!LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol noone isnt wishcasting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's a Weather Channel ?

On TV ?

Go fig ya.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Majorcaster.... J/K LOL


LOL...........Yup; count me in...... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9307
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is a classic Stefanie Abrams moment from 2008:



Best part is, her prediction of a powerful hurricane hitting Galveston came true a few months later :p.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
58. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is a classic Stefanie Abrams moment from 2008:



They shouldn't have allowed her scenario to be put on air. Makes her look like a complete fool.

Of course that show was hosted by Jim Cantore who is over exposed on TWC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is a classic Stefanie Abrams moment from 2008:



LOL! I remember watching this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well jeff i guess you are a watch-caster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Could very well be...NOGAPS has been kinda off for the past few seasons. NOGAPS= NO Good At Predicting Stuff.

Thank You
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
If you notice in 2005---- between mid july thru Mid Aug there werent any storms! July was the anomaly for 2005! 2010 still has the potiential to be very busy, from what im reading.
I meant hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
50. IKE
Quoting scott39:
If you notice in 2005---- between mid july thru Mid Aug there werent any storms! July was the anomaly for 2005! 2010 still has the potiential to be very busy, from what im reading.


July 21st...Franklin.
July 23rd...Gert.
August 2nd..Harvey.
August 4th..Irene.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
i am a august caster and a septemember caster but not a 20 storm caster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All Quiet on the Western Front Here's to hoping we get really lucky and it stays this way!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Lagging pretty far behind 2005 at the moment. 5 storms to 1.


If you notice in 2005---- between mid july thru Mid Aug there werent any storms! July was the anomaly for 2005! 2010 still has the potiential to be very busy, from what im reading.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Uh-Oh the graph is about to be posted again... LOL


I know my god people make it seem as this year will be quite or better yet like 2006 which was a poor representation compared to 2010's conditions.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting angiest:


I assume that was a typo, since July 25th hasn't happened yet. :)

You want to channel Camille?


Was talking about 1969, they didn't see their first named storm until July 25th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would agree that 20 storms will not happen.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting Jeff9641:
Everything is in place for an active season. This is not uncommon for July to be quite. Actually this is quite normal.


Uh-Oh the graph is about to be posted again... LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, 1969 will be our closest analog year in term of storms. Didn't see a named system until July 25th, saw 18 named storms. Only 1 storm in July, late July.


I assume that was a typo, since July 25th hasn't happened yet. :)

You want to channel Camille?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everything is in place for an active season. This is not uncommon for July to be quite. Actually this is quite normal.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting MahFL:
Scott39, I don't understnd a forcast of 14 - 23, it is hardly a forcast per say as something that might happen.
I was watching some Andrew videos last night and it's funny to see how young some of the forcasters were. Also the feeling of "we have a Cat 4 moving due west to SE FL", I think most people could not comprehend what was about to happen, a bit like Katrina. One thing I did note was the professionalism of the NHC staff. Another thing I noted was a seemingly lack of "get out....your likely to die/be injured" , unlike today where every Cat 1 seems to be the end of the world for everyone !
Maybe the NHC "just doesnt know for sure" and thats why there is such a large spread.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm W could you post the Nogaps models for the storm it develops east of Nicaragua and do you think that its the same system that the gfs develops in the e pacific
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Storm!

I have really enjoyed using all the links you sent me. I can actually see what everyone is talking about now.

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


This is true however you do have to start adding up the numbers sooner or later before you realize you're not going to be seeing 20+ named storms.

I think of more importance this season is that when we do get a system in the MDR the likelihood that it becomes a monster is very very high. That warm water also now stretches right through all of the US coastlines. We could very well be seeing Cat 4/5 landfall threats this season.

I would stress that point more than the run for 2005's named storms record.

That is what I worry about the most: The likelihood of very intense storms making it right to landfall.

In that, the number of named storms seems irrelevant at this time. Yet, those wrapped up in the number of named storms should be taking note that a run at 2005 seems unlikely.


I agree in the fact that there are extremely hot SSTs right along the coasts unlike we had in 2005 when it was cool along the coast lines and hot in the middle of the GOM. Now I dissagree a bit about the first part of your comment. I have never seem a more active season than 2005, and it basically started in August and continued all the way to almost December.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Sal is lifting north. Guys remember it is only 7/14. We could very well have my average of 15 to 17 storms with many US landfalls. Once this pattern unlocks then watchout. Models are indicating at something trying to form after 7 days so hang on.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr; figured we would have record SSTs for June.......We may get a few majors early out of the CV season at this rate.


Majorcaster.... J/K LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's completely possible for us to have no named storms in July and have 18 named.

1 in June
0 in July
5 in August
6 in September
4 in October
1 in November
1 in December

But as P451 pointed out, this season will not be just of how many storms we have, but their intensity. Our first named storm, Alex, nearly became a Category 3 hurricane before landfall in Mexico in June. We're going to see very intense hurricanes this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
27. P451
Quoting DestinJeff:
although there seems to be a misconception that an active or above average season requires steady activity from Day 1. it is safe to say that is a fallacy.


This is true however you do have to start adding up the numbers sooner or later before you realize you're not going to be seeing 20+ named storms.

I think of more importance this season is that when we do get a system in the MDR the likelihood that it becomes a monster is very very high. That warm water also now stretches right through all of the US coastlines. We could very well be seeing Cat 4/5 landfall threats this season.

I would stress that point more than the run for 2005's named storms record.

That is what I worry about the most: The likelihood of very intense storms making it right to landfall.

In that, the number of named storms seems irrelevant at this time. Yet, those wrapped up in the number of named storms should be taking note that a run at 2005 seems unlikely.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
sal is going away
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 76 - 26

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
45 °F
Mostly Cloudy