Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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123 - You still don't have cow.casters :)
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124. viman
Very good--- Now put them in Alpabetical order.

This is not an all-inclusive list, by no means. lol was thinking about alphabetical or maybe just doing by group or category.
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Done!

Alabaster-Master-Disaster-Aristo.casters
Alex.casters
All-bets-are-off.casters
August.casters
Bad-coach.casters
Bastardi.casters
Bi-polar.casters
Blaster.casters
BOC.casters
Bonnie.casters
Bore.casters
BP.casters
Bust.casters
Bust.casters
Calm.casters
Can’t-the-NHC-see-this-is-a-TD.casters
CapeVerde.casters
Caribbean.casters
Caster.casters
Catastrophe.casters
Central-African-wave.casters
Chicken-Little.casters
Clueless.casters
Coasters.casters
Colored-circle.casters
Comment.casters
Convection.casters
Decimal.casters
Delusional.casters
Direction.casters
Disaster.casters
Don’t-believe-the-models.casters
Doom.casters
Down.casters
Drama.casters
Dust.casters
EDF.casters (Earthly-Dragon-Fly)
Ego.casters
El-Nino.casters
Etc.casters
Feedback.casters
Fish.casters
Forecasters
Form.casters
Gieko.casters
Global.casters
GOM.casters
Herbert-Box.casters
I-bet-my-life-it-isn’t-going-into-the-GOM.casters
Invest.casters
ITCZ.casters
JFV.casters
Jim-Cantore.casters
Jog.casters
Joke.casters
La-Nina.casters
Leggo-my-eggo.casters
Mark.casters
Master.casters
Master-Disaster.casters
Mega.casters
MJO.casters
Mojo.casters
NAO.casters
NHC.casters
Numerous-storm.casters
Nut.casters
One-condition.casters
Pin-hole-eye.casters
Pole-ward .casters
Poof.casters
Pressure.casters
Rapid-Intensification.casters
Re-curve.casters
Regurgi.casters
Ridge.casters
Rip.casters
SAL.casters
Season.caster
Senior-Chief-is-this-one-Florida-thretter.casters
Shear.casters
Skew.casters
Slow.casters
Spell.casters
Spin.casters
Storm.casters
Swear.casters
Taco-Bell.casters
Tax.casters
Taz.casters
Teh-JFV-SFla.casters
Texaco.casters
The-NHC-is-wrong-and-this-is-not-a-TD.casters
The-NHC-track-is-wrong-and-I’m-right.casters
There-are-only-2-states-around-the-GOM.casters
Tidal-wave.casters
Track.casters
Trof.casters
TUTT.casters
Vacation.casters
Wabbit-Duck.casters
Wave.casters
West.casters
Will.casters
Wish.casters
Wobble.casters
Zing.casters

v/r

Jon
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Quoting IKE:


It won't be a wishcaster...they've all left after reading...There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

So I did it.

Downcaster IKE.

$$




Technically you made the words Italic, not Bold.

Font-Caster J-Bird
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116 - You forgot cow.casters (unless I missed it)
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Quoting viman:
Official “….Caster” List

August.casters
Caster.casters
Clueless.casters
Down.casters
Fish.casters
Forecasters
Master.casters
MJO.casters
Regurgi.casters
SAL.casters
Wish.casters
Skew.casters
Feedback.casters
Bi-polar.casters
Wave.casters
Bust.casters
Catastrophe.casters
Storm.casters
Numerous-storm.casters
Dust.casters
Season.caster
Disaster.casters
Slow.casters
Rapid-Intensification.casters
Bust.casters
GOM.casters
CapeVerde.casters
Caribbean.casters
Spin.casters
Wobble.casters
Bore.casters
Re-curve.casters
West.casters
Pole-ward .casters
Trof.casters
TUTT.casters
Shear.casters
Convection.casters
JFV.casters
Joke.casters
Doom.casters
Comment.casters
Taco-Bell.casters
Mega.casters
Chicken-Little.casters
Blaster.casters
Drama.casters
Master-Disaster.casters
Poof.casters
Taz.casters
Mojo.casters
EDF.casters (Earthly-Dragon-Fly)
El-Nino.casters
La-Nina.casters
Herbert-Box.casters
Tax.casters
Jim-Cantore.casters
NHC.casters
Decimal.casters
Mark.casters
Bad-coach.casters
Alabaster-Master-Disaster-Aristo.casters
Colored-circle.casters
NAO.casters
BOC.casters
Vacation.casters
Alex.casters
Bonnie.casters
Etc.casters
Pin-hole-eye.casters
Global.casters
Wabbit-Duck.casters
Swear.casters
Jog.casters
Central-African-wave.casters
Senior-Chief-is-this-one-Florida-thretter.casters
Don’t-believe-the-models.casters
The-NHC-track-is-wrong-and-I’m-right.casters
Coasters.casters
The-NHC-is-wrong-and-this-is-not-a-TD.casters
Can’t-the-NHC-see-this-is-a-TD.casters
All-bets-are-off.casters
I-bet-my-life-it-isn’t-going-into-the-GOM.casters
Form.casters
Will.casters
Rip.casters
Pressure.casters
Direction.casters
Track.casters
Zing.casters
There-are-only-2-states-around-the-GOM.casters
Tidal-wave.casters
Nut.casters
Calm.casters
Leggo-my-eggo.casters
Ego.casters
Delusional.casters
Texaco.casters
BP.casters
Spell.casters
Bastardi.casters
One-condition.casters
Teh-JFV-SFla.casters
ITCZ.casters
Ridge.casters
Gieko.casters
Invest.casters
Very good--- Now put them in Alpabetical order.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
Quoting StormW:


Then you'd be a ZEBCO or Garcia caster!
Then I am the Penn caster. my favorite.
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Quoting scott39:
I couldnt understand that video in German!


Lol
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Thanks for the Update Dr. Jeff Masters.
Good Evening everyone, As Dr. Masters noted in his blog, The whole island of Luzon lost power as TS Conson crossed transitioned over it. Conson actually went right over my wife's village, as of yet we have not been able to make contact but that's probably due to power being still out. I will let everyone know when we do make contact and what it was like.
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116. viman
Official “….Caster” List

August.casters
Caster.casters
Clueless.casters
Down.casters
Fish.casters
Forecasters
Master.casters
MJO.casters
Regurgi.casters
SAL.casters
Wish.casters
Skew.casters
Feedback.casters
Bi-polar.casters
Wave.casters
Bust.casters
Catastrophe.casters
Storm.casters
Numerous-storm.casters
Dust.casters
Season.caster
Disaster.casters
Slow.casters
Rapid-Intensification.casters
Bust.casters
GOM.casters
CapeVerde.casters
Caribbean.casters
Spin.casters
Wobble.casters
Bore.casters
Re-curve.casters
West.casters
Pole-ward .casters
Trof.casters
TUTT.casters
Shear.casters
Convection.casters
JFV.casters
Joke.casters
Doom.casters
Comment.casters
Taco-Bell.casters
Mega.casters
Chicken-Little.casters
Blaster.casters
Drama.casters
Master-Disaster.casters
Poof.casters
Taz.casters
Mojo.casters
EDF.casters (Earthly-Dragon-Fly)
El-Nino.casters
La-Nina.casters
Herbert-Box.casters
Tax.casters
Jim-Cantore.casters
NHC.casters
Decimal.casters
Mark.casters
Bad-coach.casters
Alabaster-Master-Disaster-Aristo.casters
Colored-circle.casters
NAO.casters
BOC.casters
Vacation.casters
Alex.casters
Bonnie.casters
Etc.casters
Pin-hole-eye.casters
Global.casters
Wabbit-Duck.casters
Swear.casters
Jog.casters
Central-African-wave.casters
Senior-Chief-is-this-one-Florida-thretter.casters
Don’t-believe-the-models.casters
The-NHC-track-is-wrong-and-I’m-right.casters
Coasters.casters
The-NHC-is-wrong-and-this-is-not-a-TD.casters
Can’t-the-NHC-see-this-is-a-TD.casters
All-bets-are-off.casters
I-bet-my-life-it-isn’t-going-into-the-GOM.casters
Form.casters
Will.casters
Rip.casters
Pressure.casters
Direction.casters
Track.casters
Zing.casters
There-are-only-2-states-around-the-GOM.casters
Tidal-wave.casters
Nut.casters
Calm.casters
Leggo-my-eggo.casters
Ego.casters
Delusional.casters
Texaco.casters
BP.casters
Spell.casters
Bastardi.casters
One-condition.casters
Teh-JFV-SFla.casters
ITCZ.casters
Ridge.casters
Gieko.casters
Invest.casters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barbamz:
Little break for laughing:
In hot Sweden a thursty moose, longing for cold beer, has been devastating a supermarket. I could'nt find the footage in English, but just watch the video!
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/gesellschaft/0,1518,706528,00.html

In the mean time Germany is waiting for the next front of severe weather, heading to us from France. Have a nice day everybody!
I couldnt understand that video in German!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
Little break for laughing:
In hot Norway (Oslo) a thursty moose, longing for cold beer, has been devastating a supermarket. I could'nt find the footage in English, but just watch the video!
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/gesellschaft/0,1518,706528,00.html

In the mean time Germany is waiting for the next front of severe weather, heading to us from France. Have a nice day everybody!
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levi drak and stormw u guys are the best thanks for all you do i know this blog can get difficult at times but we do appreciate you
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Quoting StormW:


How far out in time and where?


Can you get a mean over 2 5 day periods? If not then just the 144hr and the 240hr.


Tropical Atlantic
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Below is the latest NAO forecast for the next 14 days. If I see the graphic right, NAO will not stay positive for long.

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Quoting StormW:


Well, don't leave Drak out...he knows what he's doing...as well as Levi.


dont forget wfyweather.... hes the best. XD. j/k.. but i dont really blog here i have my own website
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Quoting helove2trac:
you know guys this will be the longest month for us to keep comin back and nothings brewing i come on here every day hoping for something so again that makes me a hope-caster
Everyday qualifies--helovehope-caster LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
L8r, all. Duty calls...
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Wow. Things r really slow when u can't even get a graphic posted up in here...

lol
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you know guys this will be the longest month for us to keep comin back and nothings brewing i come on here every day hoping for something so again that makes me a hope-caster
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103. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 28N
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU THEN TO JUST N OF THE GULF
WATERS FRI. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING ON THU. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF FROM THE TEXAS COAST SAT DISSIPATING BY SAT
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP ALONG 27N SUN.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THU AND THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT MOVING INLAND SUN.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W SAT MOVING
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:
Well, I know we've been posting a lot of different casting, but if anyone is still interested in FORECASTING, when my synopsis comes out, I'll point out a couple things in the GFS and ECMWF.


thanks, Storm. Can always count on you.
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StormW, since you have Accuweather Pro, does it show above-average 850mb wind speeds on the ECMWF?
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Fascinating..


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



"No raised eyebrow"

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Dats a good thang.
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Looks like nothing on the the ECMWF once again through the 24th.
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i wish i could fly over the atlantic and start a spin up then i guess i would be a spin-caster lol
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Link Here is the sytem that the gfs is developing in the e pacific
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Quoting IKE:


Irene was at 105 mph....

Ok Ike---- I give!LOL-- I was going off that chart a few posts back. The point i was trying to make in some wierd way, is that just because its slow on July 14th, doesnt mean that 2010 cant catch up.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
Do we have SAL-lifting-caster yet?
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Uh-Oh the graph is about to be posted again... LOL


If I see that graph one more time!!!!.....
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Work is BRUTAL without anything to watch in the tropics!


100% agree.... sometimes its all that gets me through the day. lol
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Calm every one down, ..here?

Good Luck wit dat.

LOL

Every Wave dat rolls off Africa is a "Threater" as of late.

Just to go "Das Poof" in 24.



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i could see stormw levi and weather456 and drakeon trying to calm everyone down lmao
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76. IKE
Quoting angiest:


So long as Al isn't overexposed...


LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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