Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1475. scott39
Before Ivan hit, I swear people bought can food like the power would never come on again!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
Quoting btwntx08:

interesting maybe the time stamp is stuck i refresh numerous and its the same thing


Mine stops at July 15, 02:45UTC. Must be your computer bro.
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I'm glad we have a diesel generator at our evacuation location. But, really, all I need is a backup power source for my iPhone so it doesn't die. The LED light is extremely bright, so I don't worry about darkness. ;)
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1471. scott39
Quoting xcool:
nooo candles
True, insurance wont pay if i burn my house down, after the hurricane hits.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1470. xcool
scott39 oh
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1469. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 best way walmart
The only way on my budget!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1468. xcool
nooo candles
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1467. scott39
Im going to buy enough can food to last for 4 weeks like everyone else!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1466. xcool
scott39 best way walmart
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1465. scott39
And some candles
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1464. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The CMC develops the wave currently North of the Cape Verdes in the Bahamas.

The wave is currently embedded in the SAL wave:


156 hours:

216:

10 days:


it develops the spin!
interesting *scratches chin* XD
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1463. scott39
Im going to go ahead and buy some D batteries!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
Quoting btwntx08:
om that image is nearly two days old


Refresh. It's the latest. This might work better for you;

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1459. scott39
It feels like an errie calm before the beasts from the East storms come and Roar--- "Who said something about a Freakin Slow Season"?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
The CMC develops the wave currently North of the Cape Verdes in the Bahamas.

The wave is currently embedded in the SAL wave:


156 hours:

216:

10 days:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1457. xcool
?
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1455. xcool
:0
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1454. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 yeah alot of waves
When this enviroment gets ripe for developement----We will be busy tracking possibly more than one at a time. IMO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
Lalalaa~

[Image removed, posted above #1461]
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1451. xcool
scott39 yeah alot of waves
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1450. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 Let's wait & see!
true
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1449. xcool
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1448. scott39
Quoting JLPR2:


Not much


Got to see if it develops and maintains convection over water, but SAL is no longer a problem in that area thanks to the other two waves, so lets see.
Are we still seeing alot of waves for this time of year?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1447. xcool
scott39 Let's wait & see!
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1446. scott39
Quoting xcool:
need more energy wave at 30w
It really helps me to look at the energy, to give a clear perspective, on how its developing or not?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1445. JLPR2
Quoting scott39:
What do you think about the one that is going to exit Africa next?


Not much


Got to see if it develops and maintains convection over water, but SAL is no longer a problem in that area thanks to the other two waves, so lets see.
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1444. scott39
Quoting JLPR2:


Well if the spin dies, which it probably will because of the SAL, the southern side could develop a new spin.
What do you think about the one that is going to exit Africa next?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1443. xcool
need more energy wave at 30w
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1442. JLPR2
Quoting scott39:
Can energy move around within a wave?


Well if the spin dies, which it probably will because of the SAL, the southern side could develop a new spin.
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1441. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 hey.


hello, just came here for a little while, heading to bed soon :)
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1440. scott39
Quoting JLPR2:


apparently, yes
Can energy move around within a wave?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1439. xcool
JLPR2 hey.
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1438. JLPR2
Quoting scott39:
So there one in the same and the convection is S?


apparently, yes
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1437. scott39
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, the wave exited with a well defined spin that is to the north
So there one in the same and the convection is S?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
Dry air on the decline in the Atlantic
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1435. JLPR2
Quoting scott39:
It looks like 30W energy is N of it?


yeah, the wave exited with a well defined spin that is to the north
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1434. scott39
Quoting xcool:


HMMM
It looks like 30W energy is N of it?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1433. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
Pink Sunsets Are Caused by Saharan Air Layer Analysis



CybrTeddy


yeah but they bring grayish skies too and they are just ugly -.-

Hey everyone! :)
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1432. xcool


HMMM
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1431. xcool
97L COME SOON MAYBE
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1430. scott39
SW Carribean looks like it would be another Mexico or even South America event. IMO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
1429. xcool
Pink Sunsets Are Caused by Saharan Air Layer Analysis



CybrTeddy
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1428. xcool


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1427. xcool
& sw cab too
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1426. scott39
The wave behind 30W looks like a player too!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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