Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:

Like a copy from the european one:
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Quoting Minnemike:

i think a lot of the area still has much to tap for energy... the MCS traveled north of the T. Cities, with just some light action around us now. i think the main event will happen between 2-5pm near my locale when the front really kicks stuff up.


I generally agree, but I had to throw a *little* downcasting there since I mentioned that it wouldn't be surprising to see high risk come out. I was balancing out any potential charge of upcasting. :D
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Quoting ajcamsmom2:

160. rljack 10:32 AM CDT on July 14, 2010

Ants head for higher ground when a storm is coming. On the Sat. before Katrina wiped my home off the face of the earth, there were no birds on my pier, not a squirrel to be found in my trees, no insects anywhere that I could see...So, I got in my truck, packed my son in tight, grabbed a few pictures and left Pass Christian, MS. When I finally got to go back to my slab, I realized why the insects/animals left...


Oh, I have no doubt that animals/insects sense what is going on. My dogs sensed Ike when it was hundreds of miles away - my carpet can attest to that. I'm glad you were able to get to safety.

Its a "caster" name I've seen tossed around the blog, so I figured we should add it.
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is there anyone who would be willing to help me gain a better understanding of the Skew-T plot/SPC Sounding Analysis for MSP via WU Mail? I have done a little homework, but still fail to visually spot trouble at a glance. I also don't want to take up more space on the Tropics blog with my queries... even though we're in a cast.casting lull.
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Quoting viman:
Official “….Caster” List

August.casters
Caster.casters
Clueless.casters
Down.casters
Fish.casters
Forecasters
Master.casters
MJO.casters
Regurgi.casters
SAL.casters
Wish.casters
Skew.casters
Feedback.casters
Bi-polar.casters
Wave.casters
Bust.casters
Catastrophe.casters
Storm.casters
Numerous-storm.casters
Dust.casters
Season.caster
Disaster.casters
Slow.casters
Rapid-Intensification.casters
Bust.casters
GOM.casters
CapeVerde.casters
Caribbean.casters
Spin.casters
Wobble.casters
Bore.casters
Re-curve.casters
West.casters
Pole-ward .casters
Trof.casters
TUTT.casters
Shear.casters
Convection.casters
JFV.casters
Joke.casters
Doom.casters
Comment.casters
Taco-Bell.casters
Mega.casters
Chicken-Little.casters
Blaster.casters
Drama.casters
Master-Disaster.casters
Poof.casters
Taz.casters
Mojo.casters
EDF.casters (Earthly-Dragon-Fly)
El-Nino.casters
La-Nina.casters
Herbert-Box.casters
Tax.casters
Jim-Cantore.casters
NHC.casters
Decimal.casters
Mark.casters
Bad-coach.casters
Alabaster-Master-Disaster-Aristo.casters
Colored-circle.casters
NAO.casters
BOC.casters
Vacation.casters
Alex.casters
Bonnie.casters
Etc.casters
Pin-hole-eye.casters
Global.casters
Wabbit-Duck.casters
Swear.casters
Jog.casters
Central-African-wave.casters
Senior-Chief-is-this-one-Florida-thretter.casters
Don’t-believe-the-models.casters
The-NHC-track-is-wrong-and-I’m-right.casters
Coasters.casters
The-NHC-is-wrong-and-this-is-not-a-TD.casters
Can’t-the-NHC-see-this-is-a-TD.casters
All-bets-are-off.casters
I-bet-my-life-it-isn’t-going-into-the-GOM.casters
Form.casters
Will.casters
Rip.casters
Pressure.casters
Direction.casters
Track.casters
Zing.casters
There-are-only-2-states-around-the-GOM.casters
Tidal-wave.casters
Nut.casters
Calm.casters
Leggo-my-eggo.casters
Ego.casters
Delusional.casters
Texaco.casters
BP.casters
Spell.casters
Bastardi.casters
One-condition.casters
Teh-JFV-SFla.casters
ITCZ.casters
Ridge.casters
Gieko.casters
Invest.casters


Wow!
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Images from GOES-12 and GOES-10 satellites:

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If this continues I wouldn't be tooooo surprised to see an upgrade to high risk later today. Unless the MCS in the area takes too much energy out this morning. (Note, I shrunk the images as they are actually designed to be fullscreen)

i think a lot of the area still has much to tap for energy... the MCS traveled north of the T. Cities, with just some light action around us now. i think the main event will happen between 2-5pm near my locale when the front really kicks stuff up.
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 14, 2010 ISSUED 11:25 A.M.


Thank you, sir.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1298

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN THROUGH W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141529Z - 141730Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN IA AND
SERN MN TO INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN SD
SWWD INTO NWRN NEB. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL MN
THROUGH NWRN AND SERN WI. THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN. A WARM EML IS
ADVECTING NEWD AND IS SERVING TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS. THE STORMS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAP WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN THE NEAR TERM. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F...CHANCES FOR
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
WITH ERN EXTENT TOWARD WRN WI WHERE THE CAP IS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARMER EML AND WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING. ONCE SURFACE BASED
STORMS DEVELOP...RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES.

..DIAL.. 07/14/2010


ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 43679352 44489109 43888962 43148971 42719142 42719321
43679352
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160. rljack 10:32 AM CDT on July 14, 2010

Ants head for higher ground when a storm is coming. On the Sat. before Katrina wiped my home off the face of the earth, there were no birds on my pier, not a squirrel to be found in my trees, no insects anywhere that I could see...So, I got in my truck, packed my son in tight, grabbed a few pictures and left Pass Christian, MS. When I finally got to go back to my slab, I realized why the insects/animals left...
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Quoting viman:
Official “….Caster” List

August.casters
Caster.casters
Clueless.casters
Down.casters
Fish.casters
Forecasters
Master.casters
MJO.casters
Regurgi.casters
SAL.casters
Wish.casters
Skew.casters
Feedback.casters
Bi-polar.casters
Wave.casters
Bust.casters
Catastrophe.casters
Storm.casters
Numerous-storm.casters
Dust.casters
Season.caster
Disaster.casters
Slow.casters
Rapid-Intensification.casters
Bust.casters
GOM.casters
CapeVerde.casters
Caribbean.casters
Spin.casters
Wobble.casters
Bore.casters
Re-curve.casters
West.casters
Pole-ward .casters
Trof.casters
TUTT.casters
Shear.casters
Convection.casters
JFV.casters
Joke.casters
Doom.casters
Comment.casters
Taco-Bell.casters
Mega.casters
Chicken-Little.casters
Blaster.casters
Drama.casters
Master-Disaster.casters
Poof.casters
Taz.casters
Mojo.casters
EDF.casters (Earthly-Dragon-Fly)
El-Nino.casters
La-Nina.casters
Herbert-Box.casters
Tax.casters
Jim-Cantore.casters
NHC.casters
Decimal.casters
Mark.casters
Bad-coach.casters
Alabaster-Master-Disaster-Aristo.casters
Colored-circle.casters
NAO.casters
BOC.casters
Vacation.casters
Alex.casters
Bonnie.casters
Etc.casters
Pin-hole-eye.casters
Global.casters
Wabbit-Duck.casters
Swear.casters
Jog.casters
Central-African-wave.casters
Senior-Chief-is-this-one-Florida-thretter.casters
Don’t-believe-the-models.casters
The-NHC-track-is-wrong-and-I’m-right.casters
Coasters.casters
The-NHC-is-wrong-and-this-is-not-a-TD.casters
Can’t-the-NHC-see-this-is-a-TD.casters
All-bets-are-off.casters
I-bet-my-life-it-isn’t-going-into-the-GOM.casters
Form.casters
Will.casters
Rip.casters
Pressure.casters
Direction.casters
Track.casters
Zing.casters
There-are-only-2-states-around-the-GOM.casters
Tidal-wave.casters
Nut.casters
Calm.casters
Leggo-my-eggo.casters
Ego.casters
Delusional.casters
Texaco.casters
BP.casters
Spell.casters
Bastardi.casters
One-condition.casters
Teh-JFV-SFla.casters
ITCZ.casters
Ridge.casters
Gieko.casters
Invest.casters


Awesome I didnt realize we came up with so many... LOL
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NOGAPS once again has a system in the Western Caribbean Sea. It has been predicting all kinds of storms to strike Nicaragua. I bet some people down there do not like the NOGAPS model. I know a lot of bloggers do not use this model for tropical cyclone predictions.Link
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When combining arctic and antarctic sea ice extent, do we have more or less than the 1979-2008 mean?
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Don't forget ant-casters (or any other variation of abnormal insect behavior).
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viman, you left out chicken casters
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Will 2010 truly be active? 7/14/10
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Tropical Storm Conson
11am EDT Graphics Update
Joint Typhoon Warning Center Advisory #13

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Quoting Jeff9641:


I think we could see atleast a dozen tornadoes in that area today. Lots of dynamics in place for that event.


RUC has some ridiculous CAPE out there:



and the EHI is pretty high too:



If this continues I wouldn't be tooooo surprised to see an upgrade to high risk later today. Unless the MCS in the area takes too much energy out this morning. (Note, I shrunk the images as they are actually designed to be fullscreen)
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TCHP certainly has made a comeback hard.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Conson's second landfall in China will worsen the flooding situation there. Over 470 people have been killed and half the country's rice crop is destroyed.
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Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Quoting viman:


Funny you should say that, I suggested the same thing about 2 days ago on the blog.... ooops now I'm an Octopus.caster, geeez does that count. I mean I suggested the octopus before the term was coined. is there a atatue that covers me or am I an Octopus.caster??? oh well i've been called worse...


You should try to get a patent on that, related to hurricanes. There a lot of that species in the Gulf, as I sometimes see in the ROV-videos.
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Quoting StormW:
Drak,

Here's a basic of what's projected at 144 hours and 240 hours as far as wind speed at 850mb:

144:
Easterly, 15-25 in the central Caribbean, 15-20 CATL/EATL from 15N, northward, 10kts CATL/EATL south of 15N. Cyclonic turning noted near 13N;30W

240:

15-20 kts Caribbean, 10-15kts CATL/EATL 15N, northward, 5-10 kts CATL/EATL south of 15N.

Broad cyclonic turning noted near Cape Verde.


Thanks! Seems better toward the end of the forecast period for the EATL
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146. viman
Quoting ConchHondros:
What about "people who make caster lists because there are no storms and they are bored and generally pissed off at the world because they live in their moms basement and mommy wont let them move the bed and its way too close to the laundry chute casters"...or JFV...6 in 1


HUH???
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Maybe the tunnels under the gulf are finally working!!!! j/k
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137-didnt need the in TWC! LOL
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The Dr. "Jeff Masters Vacation Law" of the Tropical N. Atlantic.

Summary:

PDF:

DSN:error

wiki search
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142. viman
Quoting barbamz:
Viman: Add a German specialty: Octopus-Caster. Maybe he's good in forecasting the landfall areas, too.

Report:
Paul the octopus retires, but a future in Spain beckons

Oracle Paul has become famous. Paul the octopus was an uncanny judge of Germany's World Cup fortunes. Now, he can relax and retire in his aquarium in Oberhausen, in northern Germany. A village in Spain, however, would like to give him a new home.
More: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5788989,00.html


Funny you should say that, I suggested the same thing about 2 days ago on the blog.... ooops now I'm an Octopus.caster, geeez does that count. I mean I suggested the octopus before the term was coined. is there a statute that covers me or am I an Octopus.caster??? oh well i've been called worse...
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Quoting barbamz:
Viman: Add a German specialty: Octopus-Caster. Maybe he's good in forecasting the landfall areas, too.

Report:
Paul the octopus retires, but a future in Spain beckons

Oracle Paul has become famous. Paul the octopus was an uncanny judge of Germany's World Cup fortunes. Now, he can relax and retire in his aquarium in Oberhausen, in northern Germany. A village in Spain, however, would like to give him a new home.
More: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5788989,00.html
The TWC will want him!
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The Hurricane Season is a bust caster..so now it is time for college football prognostication caster.
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138. viman
Quoting hydrus:
VIMAN- And I do see Troll-casting here from time to time.


This was just last night.
No trolls last night... I guess
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Viman: Add a German specialty: Octopus-Caster. Maybe he's good in forecasting the landfall areas, too.

Report:
Paul the octopus retires, but a future in Spain beckons

Oracle Paul has become famous. Paul the octopus was an uncanny judge of Germany's World Cup fortunes. Now, he can relax and retire in his aquarium in Oberhausen, in northern Germany. A village in Spain, however, would like to give him a new home.
More: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5788989,00.html


Edited: Here's a video of his retirement
http://cnettv.cnet.com/paul-octopus-retires/9742-1_53-50090237.html
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Quoting StormW:


Well, don't leave Drak out...he knows what he's doing...as well as Levi.


This is true
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134. viman
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
@viman
Why did Taz make the list? Taz is never wrong.


This is not my list - so to speak -
There was a lot going on last night on the blog and after seeing so many .casters i decided to start a list.

even though Taz.casters is mine. Not that he's wrong, is that someimes he goes against everything and ends up right on.
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Storm W, Have you posted your synopsis yet?
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What about "people who make caster lists because there are no storms and they are bored and generally pissed off at the world because they live in their moms basement and mommy wont let them move the bed and its way too close to the laundry chute casters"...or JFV...6 in 1
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Some big cities need to be on the lookout for some strong storms with the possibility of tornadoes.
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@viman
Why did Taz make the list? Taz is never wrong.
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VIMAN- And I do see Troll-casting here from time to time.
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123-LMAO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
123 - You still don't have cow.casters :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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