Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
@Aussie - I'd also like to add that the JTWC's intensity forecast is good - stays the same for a while, then weakens. Seems like it correlates to ours.

Anyway, a poll:
What will the NHC say about 96E at 2 p.m.?
A. <30%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. >50%

I'm going to say D.

E. 60%
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"I don't know what's taking them so long. I just hope they take care of it," said Lanette Eder, a vacationing school nutritionist from Hoschton, Ga., who was walking on the white sand at Pensacola Beach, Fla.
That could have been something a BP executive was saying before the thing blew out in the first place.
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Maybe no development till August Ike if we don't get something within the next 7 days or so... GFS 1 week forecast shows the downward motion starting to enter around the 20th of July and then continuing on untill the end of the month.

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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
@Aussie - I'd also like to add that the JTWC's intensity forecast is good - stays the same for a while, then weakens. Seems like it correlates to ours.

Anyway, a poll:
What will the NHC say about 96E at 2 p.m.?
A. <30%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. >50%

I'm going to say D.


I definitely think it will be E.
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@Aussie - I'd also like to add that the JTWC's intensity forecast is good - stays the same for a while, then weakens. Seems like it correlates to ours.

Anyway, a poll:
What will the NHC say about 96E at 2 p.m.?
A. <30%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. >50%

I'm going to say D.
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Quoting IKE:


They shouldn't have allowed her scenario to be put on air. Makes her look like a complete fool.

Of course that show was hosted by Jim Cantore who is over exposed on TWC.

She didn't seem that dumb to me. The whole segment was dumb.

Here's an idea. Take any four top flight wish casters off this blog, give them the same question and what would you get?

The animations remind me of playing Indianapolis 500 with Matchbox cars when I was four years old. Oh, the humanity!

I thought Mike Batte's scenario was going to take the storm on a large figure eight crossing back south over Orlando, where Disney World floats away, down to Miami where it reintensifies over Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades--Okeechobee floods everything to the southeast--swings back into the Gulf, gets Loop Current energy in it again (Why is it doing figure eights anyway?) kills all the relief workers who flooded into Jacksonville after the first pass, creates a primeval swamp where Orlando used to be and before you know it, in a few shocking weeks of destruction has left Florida with too little population to qualify for state hood.
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Good afternoon!

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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
Afternoon all.

Conson looks to be an amorphous blob of convection right now. Two words came to my mind when I saw it - "fried egg." Shear is really taking its toll, and I don't foresee landfall intensity being above 45 mph. (please don't say downcaster)

I agree with you, shear will keep it for intensifying.
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216. MahFL
It makes a change the wave in the ctl atl is moveing WNW and not WSW into South America.
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215. IKE
I think I see why the GFS is anti-development toward the end of July in the Atlantic. Check out the MJO, just updated.....

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Afternoon all.

Conson looks to be an amorphous blob of convection right now. Two words came to my mind when I saw it - "fried egg." Shear is really taking its toll, and I don't foresee landfall intensity being above 45 mph. (please don't say downcaster)
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Quoting 47n91w:


No reports of tornadoes yet, but that supercell has been on the southern edge of a bow echo that has moved from MN into WI this morning. There are trees down for 75 miles behind the apex of the bowecho.

Later today will be the main event in central and southern Wisconsin.

Up here in the 'northwooods', just getting a ton of lightning and heavy rain.

Tornado Watch 472 continues until 16:00 CDT.

i'm thinking SW MN and part of SD myself... the trough seems to be going toward a negative tilt. i'm guessing stuff flares up strong down there, racing across southern MN and into the WI areas mentioned after dinner time. very interested to see how it pans out.
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Itsa been a real mover with Tremendous Lightening so the Severe reports should pile up.

Nasty stuff

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
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Quoting Patrap:

688
WUUS53 KMPX 141618
SVRMPX
WIC017-033-141715-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0108.100714T1618Z-100714T1715Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN DUNN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1113 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WHEELER...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF MENOMONIE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
COLFAX...
SAND CREEK...
NEW AUBURN...
BLOOMER...
EAGLETON...
JIM FALLS...
CORNELL...
HOLCOMBE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.



LAT...LON 4498 9097 4489 9202 4518 9204 4521 9189
4521 9155 4527 9154 4529 9150 4528 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 255DEG 48KT 4508 9185
WIND...HAIL 65MPH 0.75IN


No reports of tornadoes yet, but that supercell has been on the southern edge of a bow echo that has moved from MN into WI this morning. There are trees down for 75 miles behind the apex of the bowecho.

Later today will be the main event in central and southern Wisconsin.

Up here in the 'northwooods', just getting a ton of lightning and heavy rain.

Tornado Watch 472 continues until 16:00 CDT.
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Lots of spinning going on there.

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BP freezes work on relief well and temporary cap for Gulf oil spill


Published: Wednesday, July 14, 2010, 10:03 AM Updated: Wednesday, July 14, 2010, 10:07 AM
The Associated Press The Associated Press


BP froze activity on two key projects Wednesday meant to choke off the flow of oil billowing from its broken well in the Gulf of Mexico after days of moving confidently toward controlling the crisis.

The development was a stunning setback after the oil giant finally seemed to be on track following nearly three months of failed attempts to stop the spill, which has sullied beaches from Florida to Texas and decimated the multibillion dollar fishing industry.
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The oil giant and the government said more analysis was needed before testing could proceed on a new temporary well cap -- the best hope since April of stopping the geyser. Work on a permanent fix, relief wells that will plug the spill from below with mud and cement, also was halted.

Oil continued to spew nearly unimpeded into the water, with no clear timeline on when it would stop.

"We want to move forward with this as soon as we are ready to do it," said Kent Wells, a BP senior vice president.

BP had zipped through weekend preparations for getting the 75-ton cap in place and undersea robots locked it smoothly into place Monday atop the well, raising hopes the gusher could be checked for the first time since the Deepwater Horizon rig leased by BP exploded April 20, killing 11 workers.

Wells said that it was the government's call late Tuesday to re-evaluate plans for testing the new cap, and that plans were on hold for at least 24 hours. Federal officials and the company will re-evaluate the best path forward after that time period.

But he did not commit with certainty to going forward with the testing, which would shut off the leak by closing valves on the cap and watching to see if it could hold the pressure from oil and gas in the well. Wells suggested other oil collection options might be redeployed.

Wells said the cap test, which could put added pressure on the oil as it comes out of the ground, could have an effect on the relief well. He did not elaborate.

The relief well's timeframe has always been hazy, with company and federal officials giving estimates ranging from the end of July to the middle of August before it can be completed.

Roger N. Anderson, a marine geologist at Columbia University, said he believes BP and government scientists are just being very cautious. They may have found something surprising around the well during the countdown Tuesday to testing the cap, but he's not worried.

"So I wouldn't panic, is the answer. They're going to be very, very deliberate about this," Anderson said.

BP had originally planned to start closing valves on the cap Tuesday to test if the oil spewing from the well is coming from a single leak or if there may be more. If it's the latter case, the company would leave the valves open on the cap and try to collect the oil by piping it to as many as four vessels on the surface above.

Along the Gulf Coast, where the spill has heavily damaged the region's vital tourism and fishing industries, people anxiously awaited the outcome of the painstakingly slow work.

"I don't know what's taking them so long. I just hope they take care of it," said Lanette Eder, a vacationing school nutritionist from Hoschton, Ga., who was walking on the white sand at Pensacola Beach, Fla.

"I can't say that I'm optimistic -- It's been, what, 84 days now? -- but I'm hopeful," said Nancy LaNasa, 56, who runs a yoga center in Pensacola.

The leak began after the Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling platform exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers. As of Tuesday, the 84th day of the disaster, between 90.4 and 178.6 million gallons of oil had spewed into the Gulf.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566

688
WUUS53 KMPX 141618
SVRMPX
WIC017-033-141715-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0108.100714T1618Z-100714T1715Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN DUNN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1113 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WHEELER...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF MENOMONIE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
COLFAX...
SAND CREEK...
NEW AUBURN...
BLOOMER...
EAGLETON...
JIM FALLS...
CORNELL...
HOLCOMBE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.



LAT...LON 4498 9097 4489 9202 4518 9204 4521 9189
4521 9155 4527 9154 4529 9150 4528 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 255DEG 48KT 4508 9185
WIND...HAIL 65MPH 0.75IN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting DestinJeff:


and STORMTOP would always be yelling


...and always wrong...
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NEXRAD Radar
Duluth, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
apparently i needn't have worried about my local weather on the blog... seems to have taken over it. still looking for some help in WU Mail for sounding analysis chart help. just shoot me a WU Mail message if anyone out there is willing to field some questions. thanks, mike.
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Is the Bermuda-High forecasted for the western Atlantic most of this season?
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201. Wots
169

NOLA.casters
Nakedspin.casters
nextadvisory.casters
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TVS noted West of Ironwood
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



779
WUUS53 KMPX 141610
SVRMPX
WIC005-107-141715-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0107.100714T1610Z-100714T1715Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BARRON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1109 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF HAUGEN...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RICE LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
RICE LAKE...
LADYSMITH...
BRILL...
CANTON...
MIKANA...
WEYERHAEUSER...
BRUCE...
TONY...
GLEN FLORA...
HAWKINS...
INGRAM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Duluth, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI



Storm looks too close to the radar site to get good information on tops.
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Duluth, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI



That's a *lot* of lightning.
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NEXRAD Radar
Duluth, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
NEXRAD Radar
Duluth, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting ElConando:


Those are some high cloud tops.


I believe the tornado watch mentioned mean tops of 50K.

That should have been max tops/
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Quoting Drakoen:


Those are some high cloud tops.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


and how!


I was just thinking how I was glad it was not you, and your avatar, that posted that one....
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Quoting Drakoen:


That MCS looks bigger than Marco.
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187. nw5b
Quoting Bordonaro:
Did we forget "Nader Caster"??



Or casting to elicit comments.
Caster-Baiter

Sorry...I couldn't help myself...;-P
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SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA
PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 900 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KENNEDY
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 471. WATCH NUMBER 471 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
900 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...MATURE MCS CONTINUES EWD ACROSS NERN MN THIS MORNING
WITH PREFERENTIAL...MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED NEAR
WARM FRONT N OF MSP. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS NRN WI TODAY WITH STORM REGENERATION TO THE SW ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN MN. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING STORMS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...MEAD
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Quoting Bordonaro:


It's worth noting that RUC has most of the energy a little off to the south and west of the watch area. RUC could certainly be wrong on that 15:00CDT on the RUC when I say that, which is an hour before the WW expires. If these storms don't take away too much energy it could be a wild ride this afternoon and evening.
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Did we forget "Nader Caster"??

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180. 7544
thanks for the good update storm w it tells us alot good jom mate .
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Since I work in hurricane preparedness, may I suggest...

Prep.caster

or even

It_only_takes_one.caster...
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I'd expect another EPAC TD later today or tonight if present trends continue with 96E.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.