Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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maybe the nhc down who knows
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
275. IKE
Is the NHC now on vacation or having a dart tournament?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER

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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS parallel 72hr forecast


Could be something.. a 1005 mb low is TS pressures.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
The dust is already losing out. If you play the Wisconsin movie, you can see that it has been eroded by early season rains in Senegal and the ITCZ is starting to get a little more free play.
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271. IKE
12Z CMC.


12Z NOGAPS through July 22nd.
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250. StormW 1:18 PM EDT on July 14, 2010

Thanks for sharing that Storm......Patience Folks....Patience....
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Post 253 & 256 -
Believe me, we are keeping an eye on weather! Watched the severe line & bowecho fly through N. Minn. this morning and now into N. Wisc and the UP. Waiting for updates from brothers in N. Wisc. Sad to hear about all the trees down, has there been any other storm damage reported? Any flooding or is it moving to fast?
TIA Robyn
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Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting StormW:


The following is an email between myself, and Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU...the first part is what I sent about 15 min. ago, his reply follows that:

On 2010/07/14 11:01 AM, thomas walsh wrote:
> Dr. Klotzbach,
> We met at the 2010 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. My tag said Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center. I was curious to know, do you have any intention on lowering you storm totals in the August update, based on the lack of activity so far this month? I'm keeping mine the same based on what you and I discussed at the conference. I still think the numbers will be met.
>
> Thanks in advance,
>
> T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
> GMCS, USCG (ret)
> METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
> MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
> CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)


Re: SEASONAL FORECAST
Wednesday, July 14, 2010 1:04 PM
From:
"Phil Klotzbach"
Add sender to Contacts
To:
"thomas walsh"
Dear Tom,

At this point, large-scale climate conditions look very favorable for an active season. June-July activity is typically very low, and consequently, we aren't surprised that we haven't had that much activity so far. An average season doesn't get its second named storm until August 1 and its first hurricane until August 10, so we are still ahead of the average season (and will be for several more weeks), even if nothing more happens.

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu


Thanks for sharing this
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Quoting help4u:
Thanks Storm w very helpful.


I was just compelled to quote you.......for some strange reason.....
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current sal:
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Latest RUC still shows a lot of instability this afternoon and evening:



And a high likelihood of tornadoes:



As noted previously, I have shrunk these images.
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With respect to the current dust and dry air above the ITCZ in the Atlantic, I would argue that Mother Nature's need to relieve her heat stress, at some point overrides her dust problem. The greater imbalance between the hot Atlantic, and the cool Eastern Pacific, will eventually negate the dust storms. If anything, once that dust moistens up a bit as it travels westward, it provides additional nuclei down the road for robust heat transfer to the atmosphere.

In a normal year SST wise, I would argue for the dust to win out, but not looking at the current SST map. Something has got to give up that heat, and right now the Atlantic looks like a giant nymphomaniac to me.
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am forcasting 20 too 25 name storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
Quoting Bordonaro:
#229..The set-up in the LLJ and the main Polar Jet Streams indicate there is the potential for an outbreak of tornadoes, some EF3 maybe stronger, in WI and surrounding area, possibly 5-20 tornadoes.

i'm starting to think my projections were off, it does look like WI will see most of this throughout the afternoon. I still think some action awaits in southern MN and Iowa, but probably not too tornadic.
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Quoting StormW:


The following is an email between myself, and Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU...the first part is what I sent about 15 min. ago, his reply follows that:

On 2010/07/14 11:01 AM, thomas walsh wrote:
> Dr. Klotzbach,
> We met at the 2010 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. My tag said Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center. I was curious to know, do you have any intention on lowering you storm totals in the August update, based on the lack of activity so far this month? I'm keeping mine the same based on what you and I discussed at the conference. I still think the numbers will be met.
>
> Thanks in advance,
>
> T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
> GMCS, USCG (ret)
> METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
> MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
> CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)


Re: SEASONAL FORECAST
Wednesday, July 14, 2010 1:04 PM
From:
"Phil Klotzbach"
Add sender to Contacts
To:
"thomas walsh"
Dear Tom,

At this point, large-scale climate conditions look very favorable for an active season. June-July activity is typically very low, and consequently, we aren't surprised that we haven't had that much activity so far. An average season doesn't get its second named storm until August 1 and its first hurricane until August 10, so we are still ahead of the average season (and will be for several more weeks), even if nothing more happens.

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu


Exactly...
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Thanks Storm w very helpful.
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#229..The set-up in the LLJ and the main Polar Jet Streams indicate there is the potential for an outbreak of tornadoes, some EF3 maybe stronger, in WI and surrounding area, possibly 5-20 tornadoes total in that area.

Folks in the current Tornado Watch area need to pay close ATTENTION to the weather today.
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GFS parallel 72hr forecast
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
A troll for hoping the most destructive storms in world don't form.What kind of doom and gloom blog is this.
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Well what is it chief? Don't leave us in suspense! D:
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
help4u, there is no way this season will be below average.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
Post 239 that maybe the map for the season.Too hot and dry.
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i think you will see this all week long.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Maybe no development till August Ike if we don't get something within the next 7 days or so... GFS 1 week forecast shows the downward motion starting to enter around the 20th of July and then continuing on untill the end of the month.



Look at Africa towards the end of the run with the strong upward MJO, that will instigate more moisture, more CV waves.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
How soon will they circle the wave(18W S OF 19N) that exited Africa yesterday, It has nice cyclonic flow as noted on the NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion. StormW, Lexi, what is your take on this feature?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
and no one is lowering there #'s im sticking with 18 the whole way
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Could the experts lower there numbers to below normal?I don't think they expected downward mjo,dry air and the huge amount of dust.I don't think any of them predicted 1 storm in July.Opinions?Would be great for below normal season again with oil spill.
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i see the downcaster ike in here we will see 1-2 storms b4 the month is over
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
According to the GFS parallel 12z we definitely need to watch the southern Caribbean closely for potential development. Looks like a lot of moisture and the model more or less holds an area of low pressure.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
Quoting bappit:

She didn't seem that dumb to me. The whole segment was dumb.

Here's an idea. Take any four top flight wish casters off this blog, give them the same question and what would you get?

The animations remind me of playing Indianapolis 500 with Matchbox cars when I was four years old. Oh, the humanity!

I thought Mike Batte's scenario was going to take the storm on a large figure eight crossing back south over Orlando, where Disney World floats away, down to Miami where it reintensifies over Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades--Okeechobee floods everything to the southeast--swings back into the Gulf, gets Loop Current energy in it again (Why is it doing figure eights anyway?) kills all the relief workers who flooded into Jacksonville after the first pass, creates a primeval swamp where Orlando used to be and before you know it, in a few shocking weeks of destruction has left Florida with too little population to qualify for state hood.


ROFLMAO!!! Great!!!!!
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New tornado watch. Could see a tornado outbreak later today.



SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR NORTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA
FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LA
CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 472...

DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO OVER N-CNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
TODAY WITH MORE DISCRETE...SUPERCELLULAR MODES ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
SRN/SWRN FLANK OF MATURE MCS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE BOWING SYSTEM...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN PORTION OF WW AREA WHERE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...MEAD
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If a 55% existed, I'd use it. We need to factor in how conservative the NHC is. I think 60% is reasonable, but it depends on:
a) The forecaster issuing the TWO, and
b) Their mood.

This is what I have found.
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227. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Maybe no development till August Ike if we don't get something within the next 7 days or so... GFS 1 week forecast shows the downward motion starting to enter around the 20th of July and then continuing on untill the end of the month.



I was just fixing to post that I thought the odds are increasing that July will be a blank in the ATL.

12Z GFS....nothing through July 30th.
12Z GFS parallel...minor low crosses the Yucatan in a few days...otherwise...zilch through July 30th.

MJO heading downward. Experts will probably lower their #'s.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.