Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting primadonnagirl:
2004 was a fluke


Oh really? You're happening to be talking to a person who went through all 4 hurricanes in FL. If there were more people on who went through what I went through, you'd be in for it.
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324. IKE
Quoting angiest:


Apparently I did this a very long time ago, and would have been blissfully ignorant of these posts were it not for others quoting them.


That's why the ignore feature is almost useless. I have someone on ignore that knows I have them on ignore...he simply gets someone to quote his posts so I see them.
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.."to quote,

or not to quote"...

That is the dilemma.


Sigh
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129432
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What we need to do is ignore and move on...


Apparently I did this a very long time ago, and would have been blissfully ignorant of these posts were it not for others quoting them.
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well the forcast from the NHC is forcastin a lot of tropical waves and surface troughs and I think that these areas should be watched of development any way I hope there will be none next week I have to go to Trinidad for five days mon-fri
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2004 was a fluke
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Too funny, you state primadonna's post "doesn't mean a thing", then turn around a make a statement in the same post that doesn't mean a thing.....


It did mean something. He saying busy seasons don't always have early starts.
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What we need to do is ignore and move on...
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"No..,
you mentioned the 3 letter Guy, you dont get a check"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129432
2 for the pac 0 for the alatic
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Same here. She's getting on my nerves.


Is this hurricanelover236 you guys are talking about?
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Quoting cyclonekid:
That doesn't mean a thing. Look at 2004. Their first storm didn't form until July 31.


Too funny, you state primadonna's post "doesn't mean a thing", then turn around a make a statement in the same post that doesn't mean a thing.....
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Quoting primadonnagirl:
i don't need old crow

i said last season was going to be weak and it was

this season is weaker

u know its true

all my crows have died

im never wrong


LOL
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Hi Everybody, hope all is well. From the new blog:

Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey Matt. Don't try to reason with her, she's obviously a downcaster like all the other people that come on here. When we get a major hurricane, I hope she feels dumb coming and saying Alex will be the strongest storm. I hate these type of people soooo much.
Same here. She's getting on my nerves.
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Quoting AllStar17:
The Hydro-prediction Center also issued the EPAC Tropical Outlook. Forecaster Musher wrote it.....never heard of him.


Wait, wait, I have it. The forecasters at the NHC were looking at their really really super duper long range forecasts and saw a string of cat 5s heading straight for S Florida, and immediately went searching for shower curtains.
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i don't need old crow

i said last season was going to be weak and it was

this season is weaker

u know its true

all my crows have died

im never wrong
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Looks like another EPAC TD.




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Quoting cyclonekid:
Hey Cody.


Hey Matt. Don't try to reason with her, she's obviously a downcaster like all the other people that come on here. When we get a major hurricane, I hope she feels dumb coming and saying Alex will be the strongest storm. I hate these type of people soooo much.
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The Hydro-prediction Center also issued the EPAC Tropical Outlook. Forecaster Musher wrote it.....never heard of him.
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Quoting primadonnagirl:


im not

the pac will hsve all the storms this year

come on they had a cat 5

what the alatic have nothing! but dust
That doesn't mean a thing. Look at 2004. Their first storm didn't form until July 31.
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I dont think the BP folks are confident about the well bore.

As a lot of folks have felt all along.

April 20th did something bad down deep, and the oil may be leaking into the annulus.

Dats a very bad thing.
They stopped the relief wells while they doing this down Hole pressure test.

if we lose the Hole. The relief wells wont do squat.

This a bad idea.

IMHO.

HOUSTON On orders from federal officials, BP delayed a key pressure test on the new oil cap below the Gulf late Tuesday because of concerns that the test could damage the wellbore, a BP executive said Wednesday.

"There were a couple of other concerns around ways flow could escape and we needed to go examine those before we proceeded," Doug Suttles, BP chief operating officer of exploration and production, told CNN.

An unstable area around the wellbore could create bigger problems if the leak continued elsewhere in the well after the cap valves were shut, experts said.

"It's an incredibly big concern," said Don Van Nieuwenhuise, director of Professional Geoscience Programs at the University of Houston. "They need to get a scan of where things are, that way when they do pressure testing, they know to look out for ruptures or changes."

Suttles later said he did not know if BP will get approval to go ahead with closing valves that have been left open since the capping stack was installed atop the well Monday.

Suttles said the government wants to verify that the casing, or the piping in the well, is intact and that the oil would stay contained if BP shuts the well in.

Suttles said the next step would depend on the outcome of a meeting of BP and government officials early Wednesday afternoon.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129432
Quoting primadonnagirl:
1.00pm and not a thing

lol there won't be a thing
you really know your stuff, don't ye
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


ROFLMAO!!!!!
Hey Cody.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
July is the peak of all the dust...So don't be such a downcaster.


im not

the pac will hsve all the storms this year

come on they had a cat 5

what the alatic have nothing! but dust
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1.00pm and not a thing

lol there won't be a thing
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Quoting primadonnagirl:
if you think this season going to be active you are silly

the dust is eating all the storms

and the winds are wild

alex will be the stronger storm this year

July is the peak of all the dust...So don't be such a downcaster.
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Quoting primadonnagirl:
my forcast 4 name storms

alex is the alcia of this season

this is going to be weaker then 2009

i bet it


ROFLMAO!!!!!
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Quoting primadonnagirl:
my forcast 4 name storms

alex is the alcia of this season

this is going to be weaker then 2009

i bet it


Do you bet your life on it?
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if you think this season going to be active you are silly

the dust is eating all the storms

and the winds are wild

alex will be the stronger storm this year

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Live feeds from Skandi ROV2

Live feeds from the Gulf of Mexico ROVs
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129432
my forcast 4 name storms

alex is the alcia of this season

this is going to be weaker then 2009

i bet it
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Quoting BayouBorn1965:
Thanks, StormW, for that information! Now is the ideal time to get ready for what the remainder of the season has yet to reveal. That is unless you "like" crowded stores and waiting in long lines.


preparation-caster ;)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
this blog will self-destruct if we get nothing for the remainder of the month.


LMAO! Good one!
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Well guys.. we got two things to track. Conson and Pre TD 6E, may not be in the Atlantic but it's the best we have and the best we will have for a week or two it looks like.
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96E at 70% chance:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER
NNNN

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Thanks, StormW, for that information! Now is the ideal time to get ready for what the remainder of the season has yet to reveal. That is unless you "like" crowded stores and waiting in long lines.
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Quoting IKE:
Is the NHC now on vacation or having a dart tournament?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER



Well, if they're on vacation, they better be at the beach, because it looks to be beautiful the next couple of weeks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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