Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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375. Skyepony (Mod)
Checking model performance on Conson.. Much fewer models are run for it, or atleast included in this evaluation.. MM5 models did much better here than they have on the Atlantic storms so far this year. Usually pretty good models..good example how they do better with strong organized storms. Humans still win this one by a good margin.. Way to go JTWC..




Average Error (nm)
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
AVNO CONSTANT 113.5 258.2 385.3 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 66.7 159.8 167.1 -1 -1
MM5B CONSTANT 75 166.1 280.9 273.2 -1
MM5E INCREASING 90.9 209.9 266.9 -1 -1
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Chicklit that is a very interesting color scale in the sat pic in post 350. I wonder what a hurricane will look like in that.


That's the shortwave infrared color scheme, looks best at night because its the easiest infrared to spot closed circulations in low-level clouds at night if a system is sheared or poorly-organized.

You can find shortwave IR images of the Atlantic and E-Pac on this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Chicklit that is a very interesting color scale in the sat pic in post 350. I wonder what a hurricane will look like in that.


Hi SSIG, That's this one Meteosat - East Atlantic - Infrared Channel 2 Loop AKA Shortwave Loop
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Govt-delays-work-on-BP-project-to-cap-Gulf-well

Link
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Quoting primadonnagirl:
i don't need old crow

i said last season was going to be weak and it was

this season is weaker

u know its true

all my crows have died

im never wrong


And modest too.....
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Tor Con Index is now 8 out 10 in SE MN and SW WI.

Watch out Upper Midwest. The dewpoints are approaching 80F and Dr Forbes is on The Weather Channel, he is expecting explosive development mid to late afternoon in that area.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Where's the SAL?


That graphic of the SAL is good. The tropical wave that came off of Africa on the 11th completely lost its chance to develop in low shear and Warm SSTs when it wrapped in the SAL.

The tropical wave that came off of Africa on the 13th (yesterday) seems to be fighting off the SAL so far. However, the pocket of SAL to the NW of the wave will be important to watch. Will the spin with the wave wrap in the SAL from the NW and kill this one too? Lets see what happens.
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Quoting Patrap:
Im still 5',8" 190


I'm on 7/14/10
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Funny how we go from mid-July to late-July, now over to August...good grief. Having flashbacks of 2004: Power On, Power OFF, Power On, Power OFF. And this wasn't for a few hours, either. Some didn't have power for nearly two weeks. The whole month from mid to late August through half of September a write-off as far as work was concerned (and didn't we go into October?)...can't remember. A blur now.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just ignore premadonna, she/he is completely clueless.. and obviously doesn't know her/his alphabet.. the next storm in is the 'E' storm, unless they changed it since I was in school 'E' is not 16 letters in.


No, No, she was saying in October the Atlantic will have 0 activity and the Pacific will be on their 16th storm.
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Whats the pressure reading HAL..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Is primadonnagirl actually Jay Eff Vee? I hate to write his initials but it seems like his style of troublemaking. If not then primadonnagirl please don't make this a debate, we are here to share weather information to make ourselves, friends and family safer in the event of life threatening weather and to study weather related events as a hobby. If you want to cause trouble there are plenty of chat rooms available on the web for you to browse.
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Quoting btwntx08:

finally gonna say poof goodbye


Thank You :D
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Just ignore premadonna, she/he is completely clueless.. and obviously doesn't know her/his alphabet.. the next storm in is the 'E' storm, unless they changed it since I was in school 'E' is not 16 letters in.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
I love my ignore button!!

I believe we will see:

14-16 TC in total
9 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

I believe the mid Aug-early Oct 2010 time frame will be very busy!!


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Where's the SAL?
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Quoting angiest:


Apparently I did this a very long time ago, and would have been blissfully ignorant of these posts were it not for others quoting them.


Absolutely the ignore feature isnt worth a crap when people quote the trolls.
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Quoting AllStar17:
My very late prediction for the season:
16-20 named storms
6-10 hurricanes
3-7 major hurricanes


At the beginning of the season, I was going with 16 storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 majors. Still going with that. Glad to see a little cosensus, LOL.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Oh really? You're happening to be talking to a person who went through all 4 hurricanes in FL. If there were more people on who went through what I went through, you'd be in for it.


Careful cane, don't let her get to you......she's drawing you in to the blog hole...
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349. Skyepony (Mod)
96E 5hrs old on Windsat..pretty close, little open on the NW side & notice the wind is rushing more to center, almost a nice cyclonic flow.. may get an ASCAT soon.
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Local Man reacts to BP's latest move
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Extreme Severe Weather happening in the Midwest.



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Im still 5',8" 190
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
lol you all will be saying i was right come oct

and there is still nothing

and the pac is on their 16 storm
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Quoting btwntx08:
looks like some easterly shear is affecting pre td 6e coc is on the eastern part


Yeah, this disturbance has been really complicated in the E-Pac. It was a huge area of broad low pressure with tropical wave after wave entering the E-Pac closely spaced.

A western piece of the disturbance has consolidated this morning, and that was what was needed for this to develop. The outflow of the eastern piece however seems to be impeding the eastern outflow of the developing tropical depression, and also is inducing the easterly shear on this system.
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#332 and a POOF! no quotes...
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My very late prediction for the season:
16-20 named storms
6-10 hurricanes
3-7 major hurricanes
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341. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm still at 13/7/3


And I'm at 13-7-4. Have been for 3-4 months.
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Quoting caneswatch:


It did mean something. He saying busy seasons don't always have early starts.
Thank You! I did mean something. Their first storm didn't form until 7/31 and they winded up with 15 storms. So primadonna, you need to look at the big picture consider that this is only July, we've got 4 or 5 months left of this season, and that all the trustworthy forecast centers are predicting 14+ storms. This will be an active season. Plain and simple.
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Quoting btwntx08:
the 18,10,6 is going to stand NOT 4 lol patheic downcaster


IGNORE!!!
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Regarding 96E:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ I completely agree. I don't understand why they are even trying to cap it from the top. It's all good to pull it right up to ships to keep it from going in the gulf but no reason to put any extra pressure on the well. Top kill attempt demonstrated that. Get a try at the bottom kill before it all falls apart if it already hasn't.


My thoughts and alotta others zactly Skyepony.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
334. IKE
HPC...3-7 day...looped.
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333. Skyepony (Mod)
Pat~ I completely agree. I don't understand why they are even trying to cap it from the top. It's all good to pull it right up to ships to keep it from going in the gulf but no reason to put any extra pressure on the well. Top kill attempt demonstrated that. Get a try at the bottom kill before it all falls apart if it already hasn't.
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i think humans are making hurricane seasons weak to fit their needs
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to tell you the truth 96-E looks like a sheared TD
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Quoting IKE:
I have zero faith in BP or getting this stopped.

That's why the ignore feature is almost useless. I have someone on ignore that knows I have them on ignore...he simply gets someone to quote his posts so I see them.




Really?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Looks like 96E will split the difference between the tracks of both Blas and Celia.
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Quoting btwntx08:

ur the most likely to get it hahahahahahahahaha


Ignore her.
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Quoting primadonnagirl:
2004 was a fluke


Oh really? You're happening to be talking to a person who went through all 4 hurricanes in FL. If there were more people on who went through what I went through, you'd be in for it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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